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This doesn't work the way you imagine. Suppose the ROI of biotech becomes more competitive compared to alternatives, because there's an ongoing series of techn
by thaumasiotes 4mo ago
This doesn't work the way you imagine.
Suppose the ROI of biotech becomes more competitive compared to alternatives, because there's an ongoing series of technological breakthroughs.
The return on investing goes up (by assumption) and this means interest rates go up (by definition; they are the return on investing).
Is this bad for biotech? Does it shift capital out of biotech? Obviously not.
- klipt 4mo agoYou're using "high interest rate" to mean "biotech has great returns right now". Everyone else is using it to mean "the Federal Reserve has set the interest rate high right now" Very different situations.
- thaumasiotes 4mo agoThe difference between those two situations can't be determined by observing the level of interest rates. That's my whole point.
- lazide 4mo agoIt absolutely can. High fed rates means the ‘tide’ is different. For biotech to get more interest, it has to have a higher roi than comparable other risk investments. High ROI != high interest rates.
- mike_hearn 4mo agoHigh interest rate environment usually means the government specifically is paying a better rate on its debt. Then other interest rates are downstream from that. Government interest rates aren't connected to returns on investment (or only very indirectly). Tech investments don't come with interest payments usually, so if interest rates go up it pulls money into government and corporate bonds which are much lower risk. Why take a gamble on new tech that might lose you everything to get 10% ROI, if you can get 6% "risk free" in bonds?