3 ms·

Here’s a small list https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48447549 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48447549

dgellow 4mo ago
That's really not convincing. I personally don't care much about predictions, nobody is an oracle who can predict the future. If someone looks at SpaceX, talk about the financial engineering that went in the stock, then predict incorrectly that the price will go down, the meaningful information isn't the prediction, it's the analysis. The price might never go down due to how insane and detached from reality the stock market is when it comes to Elon Musk. The facts I've seen in his reports seem to reflect reality as far as I can tell, he is correct that software companies switched from very low Capex to be extremely Capex heavy. And that announced datacenter aren't getting built. And that AI labs do not have a business model. And we've been since a few years in a financial bubble. And companies shifting to full agentic didn't take pricing into account until the switch from subscriptions to API pricing. And that nobody can say how much the use of agents cost beforehand (because both output tokens and the amount of tokens required for a given task cannot be predicted in advance). Etc.
- simianwords 4mo ago
  > I personally don't care much about predictions I don't know what to say other than I now know the audience Ed Zitron writes for.
  - dgellow 4mo ago
    Are you aware he's not an investor or stock analyst? His short term predictions of the market and the industry are irrelevant and doesn't invalidate the general thesis or his reported data. Have you seen mistakes and inaccuracies that aren't related to predictions? As a side note I do personally have a thing for caustic writing, even if I wouldn't agree with his analysis I would still be happy reading some of his articles. Reminds me of blog writers from 2010
  - rpdillon 4mo ago
    Hang on; You said financially and technically illiterate. You didn't just say the predictions were inaccurate. GP is asking for evidence of illiteracy.
    - simianwords 4mo ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48553079 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48553079

That's really not convincing. I personally don't care much about predictions, nobody is an oracle who can predict the future. If someone looks at SpaceX, talk about the financial engineering that went in the stock, then predict incorrectly that the price will go down, the meaningful information isn't the prediction, it's the analysis. The price might never go down due to how insane and detached from reality the stock market is when it comes to Elon Musk. The facts I've seen in his reports seem to reflect reality as far as I can tell, he is correct that software companies switched from very low Capex to be extremely Capex heavy. And that announced datacenter aren't getting built. And that AI labs do not have a business model. And we've been since a few years in a financial bubble. And companies shifting to full agentic didn't take pricing into account until the switch from subscriptions to API pricing. And that nobody can say how much the use of agents cost beforehand (because both output tokens and the amount of tokens required for a given task cannot be predicted in advance). Etc.

simianwords 4mo ago
> I personally don't care much about predictions I don't know what to say other than I now know the audience Ed Zitron writes for.
- dgellow 4mo ago
  Are you aware he's not an investor or stock analyst? His short term predictions of the market and the industry are irrelevant and doesn't invalidate the general thesis or his reported data. Have you seen mistakes and inaccuracies that aren't related to predictions? As a side note I do personally have a thing for caustic writing, even if I wouldn't agree with his analysis I would still be happy reading some of his articles. Reminds me of blog writers from 2010
- rpdillon 4mo ago
  Hang on; You said financially and technically illiterate. You didn't just say the predictions were inaccurate. GP is asking for evidence of illiteracy.
  - simianwords 4mo ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48553079 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48553079