12 ms·

Oddly enough this exact topic came in another thread, and CDC mortality tables [1] are kind of eye opening for those who don't realize how brief life is. Take j

Oddly enough this exact topic came in another thread, and CDC mortality tables [1] are kind of eye opening for those who don't realize how brief life is. Take just the 25-44 year old bracket (which is probably conservative here given we're speaking of an older cohort) and the death rate is approximately 140/100k per year. For a sample of 700k people that'd be about 980 per year, around 1800 over 22 months. Their estimate is more than twice that, but that is probably simply because of a higher age estimation. Mortality rates skyrocket upwards rapidly. At the 35-55 bracket we're already somewhere around 300/100k, which would be around 4k. And that age bracket is probably closer to reality than 25-44. Whatever the exact figure is going to be, 4k is probably a pretty decent ballpark. And many of those deaths are going to be unusual, because pretty much all deaths at younger ages are unusual. A bit paradoxical given how 'regularly' it happens, when you look at the scale of society. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/MortFinal2007_Worktable23r.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/MortFinal2007_Worktable23r...

giantg2 4mo ago
"because pretty much all deaths at younger ages are unusual." I would think most of those deaths are car accidents, heart attack, stroke, cancer, and drugs. I would not call those suspicious circumstances.
- somenameforme 4mo ago
  There's some data on that here [1] - page 19. It depends on the exact age range. For everybody under 45 the leading cause of death is unintentional injury by a wide margin. It's unclear what percent of that would be car crashes. Cancer and other stuff catches up pretty quickly in the 45-54 age range and becomes overwhelmingly dominant by the 55+ group. So it depends on exactly what age range we're talking about. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr74/nvsr74-10.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr74/nvsr74-10.pdf

giantg2 4mo ago

"because pretty much all deaths at younger ages are unusual." I would think most of those deaths are car accidents, heart attack, stroke, cancer, and drugs. I would not call those suspicious circumstances.

somenameforme 4mo ago
There's some data on that here [1] - page 19. It depends on the exact age range. For everybody under 45 the leading cause of death is unintentional injury by a wide margin. It's unclear what percent of that would be car crashes. Cancer and other stuff catches up pretty quickly in the 45-54 age range and becomes overwhelmingly dominant by the 55+ group. So it depends on exactly what age range we're talking about. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr74/nvsr74-10.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr74/nvsr74-10.pdf