4 ms·

Those numbers sound worse than they are. Storage production capacity is still rising much faster than energy consumption in all those nations, and the situatio

Those numbers sound worse than they are. Storage production capacity is still rising much faster than energy consumption in all those nations, and the situation is probably quite similar with other pieces of infrastructure that last for decades; replacing all big electric transformers would similarly need many years of production. Primary energy considerations are also somewhat iffy if the first step involved is often a ~40% efficient conversion into a form similarly "valuable" to electricity (like gasoline => motion).

leonidasrup 4mo ago
The numbers are as they are now. For future energy consumption I would look to India, which is on the same energy growth path as China 20 years ago. And there are many countries with low per capita energy consumption but high potential. Like Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt,.. https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/indonesia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/indonesia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/malaysia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/malaysia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/egypt https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/egypt I agree that efficiency of electric motor + battery is much higher that ICE. ICE cars are now slowly replaced with EV cars. About 42% of oil is refined to gasoline, but much of oil is refined to diesel, jet fuel and used in transportation which is harder to convert to EV, like long-haul trucking, or much harder to convert to EV, like international shipping, air transport. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... " efficiencies of up to 43% for passenger car engines, up to 45% for large truck and bus engines, and up to 55% for large two-stroke marine engines" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine#Efficiency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine#Efficiency "By generating power from multiple streams of work, the overall efficiency can be increased by about 50–60%. That is, from an overall efficiency of say 43% for a simple cycle with the turbine alone running, to as much as 64% net with the full combined cycle running" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined-cycle_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined-cycle_power_plant

leonidasrup 4mo ago

The numbers are as they are now. For future energy consumption I would look to India, which is on the same energy growth path as China 20 years ago. And there are many countries with low per capita energy consumption but high potential. Like Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt,.. https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/indonesia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/indonesia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/malaysia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/malaysia https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/egypt https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/egypt I agree that efficiency of electric motor + battery is much higher that ICE. ICE cars are now slowly replaced with EV cars. About 42% of oil is refined to gasoline, but much of oil is refined to diesel, jet fuel and used in transportation which is harder to convert to EV, like long-haul trucking, or much harder to convert to EV, like international shipping, air transport. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... " efficiencies of up to 43% for passenger car engines, up to 45% for large truck and bus engines, and up to 55% for large two-stroke marine engines" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine#Efficiency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine#Efficiency "By generating power from multiple streams of work, the overall efficiency can be increased by about 50–60%. That is, from an overall efficiency of say 43% for a simple cycle with the turbine alone running, to as much as 64% net with the full combined cycle running" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined-cycle_power_plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined-cycle_power_plant