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> Revenue went from $3.7B to $13.07B — roughly 3.5x. > Operating loss went from ~$8.8B to ~$20.9B — roughly 2.4x. > Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario. Th

> Revenue went from $3.7B to $13.07B — roughly 3.5x. > Operating loss went from ~$8.8B to ~$20.9B — roughly 2.4x. > Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario. Those two lines are moving up and to the right, but are not parallel. It all depends on where those two lines meet (the break-even point): too far in the future and the company will be dead anyway. Almost all companies will eventually be profitable; the problem is that the majority of them will need constant cash injections to keep the lights on. Like the old aviation saying: even a brick will fly if it has enough thrust. doesn't make the brick a plane, though.

red-iron-pine 4mo ago
and again, there are good models racing right behind. the brick has a lot of thrust but there is a airplane behind it, and it's moving on its own
thewebguyd 4mo ago
Compounding revenue & operating loss at those same rates (3.5x and 2.4x respectfully) puts those two lines meeting at around 2031. That'd be about 9-10 years to profitability, that seems pretty normal. Amazon took 9 years, Uber took 14 years before its first profitable year.
- deepdarkforest 4mo ago
  both amazon and uber used that spending to deliver a network effect moat/almost monopoly. But openai's chance of a moat on model quality is dropping as we go, not increasing
  - mike_hearn 4mo ago
    Neither Amazon nor Uber have monopolies nor much of a network effect. Amazon retail is or was famously low or near zero margin with their profits driven by AWS. Uber's margins are not much better than any average business.
- mamonster 4mo ago
  >Amazon took 9 years, Uber took 14 years before its first profitable year Both had a path to profitability in an environment of falling interest rates. OpenAI is going public in an environment of higher for longer interest rates. The discounting math is nowhere near as attractive for investors.

red-iron-pine 4mo ago

and again, there are good models racing right behind. the brick has a lot of thrust but there is a airplane behind it, and it's moving on its own

thewebguyd 4mo ago

Compounding revenue & operating loss at those same rates (3.5x and 2.4x respectfully) puts those two lines meeting at around 2031. That'd be about 9-10 years to profitability, that seems pretty normal. Amazon took 9 years, Uber took 14 years before its first profitable year.

deepdarkforest 4mo ago
both amazon and uber used that spending to deliver a network effect moat/almost monopoly. But openai's chance of a moat on model quality is dropping as we go, not increasing
- mike_hearn 4mo ago
  Neither Amazon nor Uber have monopolies nor much of a network effect. Amazon retail is or was famously low or near zero margin with their profits driven by AWS. Uber's margins are not much better than any average business.
mamonster 4mo ago
>Amazon took 9 years, Uber took 14 years before its first profitable year Both had a path to profitability in an environment of falling interest rates. OpenAI is going public in an environment of higher for longer interest rates. The discounting math is nowhere near as attractive for investors.