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> Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario Ceteris paribus, those figures imply a $45bn loss this year, $90bn loss next year and $110bn loss in 2028 before breake
by JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> Doesn't seem like a domesday scenario
Ceteris paribus, those figures imply a $45bn loss this year, $90bn loss next year and $110bn loss in 2028 before breakeven in 2029.
That's $250bn of losses to be financed from 2026 onwards. (They raised ~$120bn, $25bn up front and the rest based on milestones. So Another ~$125bn uncovered.) That only works if OpenAI stays a fundraising darling. So not a doomsday sceanario. But perilous, and dependent on short-term trends extending into long-term curves.
- Schiendelman 5mo agoYou're adding absolute dollars rather than using percentages - that usually isn't how that works.
- eiiee 5mo agoHahaha what a bozo. Of course you don’t use percentages when the magnitude of the numbers are so high.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago> rather than using percentages Not really. Fractions (7/2), ratios (3.5x) and percentages (+250%) are fundamentally mathematically identical. There are a lot of problems with this back-of-the-envelope estimate, but I’m not sure the one I understand you presenting is one of them.
- curio_Pol_curio 5mo ago? https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-burned-3-7-billion-first-three-months-2026 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-burned-3-7-bi... ? https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/index-startup-ornn-launches-anthropic-openai-token-benchmarks https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/index-startup-ornn-...
- Schiendelman 5mo agoAny of those three would be fine. They did not use any of them. They simply used absolute dollars.