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Assigning, and more specifically announcing/reporting on, all possibilities makes all of these predictions meaningless. If I predict the world will end every s
by al_borland 5mo ago
Assigning, and more specifically announcing/reporting on, all possibilities makes all of these predictions meaningless.
If I predict the world will end every single day from now until forever, I will most certainly be right eventually. That doesn’t make me an “expert” or someone worth listening to on the topic. That’s the playbook of a doomsday cult, not anyone that should drive world markets.
- frognumber 5mo agos/all possibilities/all possibilities with odds greater than some threshold/g There's no reason to report on the odds of a meteor falling on my head tomorrow. There is every reason to consider the odds of: - Nuclear apocalypse (esp. Cold War era) - Bioweapon - Climate change leading to disaster - AI apocalypse - Etc. None of those are infinitesimal odds. That contrasts with, say, a zombie virus.