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It is supply and demand but chip supply isn't very elastic and the producers are conservative about adding capacity that won't be needed by the time it's online
by colechristensen 4mo ago
It is supply and demand but chip supply isn't very elastic and the producers are conservative about adding capacity that won't be needed by the time it's online.
- dd8601fn 4mo agoDoesn’t this presume that chip fabs are betting that the AI boom is a bubble that’s going to pop? Seems kinda hard to believe at this point, no?
- colechristensen 4mo agoHard to believe that an industry making money hand over fist are reluctant to spend tens of billions expanding capacity that won't come online for years? There have been SEVERAL crashes that have wiped out the market and it's the reason there are so few players, the rest of them went bankrupt after periods of over-expansion. (in the 80s caused by Japan, in 1997, in 2001ish after the dotcom bust) You're even calling it a bubble so it's not exactly "hard to believe" it will pop.
- nyeah 4mo agoNo. It doesn't have to be a bubble at all. It just has to be a cycle of rapid capital equipment build-out that returns to more normal levels in a few years.
- kuerbel 4mo agoSK Hynix just said they want to double wafer production by 2031.
- pixl97 4mo agoI mean, I want to double the the number of billions of dollars I have by 2031, doesn't mean I will. (actually I have 0 billion and double 0 billion is still 0 billion, so unlike them I'll accomplish that goal).
- kuerbel 4mo agoThey already ordered Hanmi equipment and started construction at Yongin Mega Fab. Sounds pretty serious to me.
- LaGrange 4mo agoBy 2031 the best employer in Europe will be the water gangs.
- stymaar 4mo agoNvidia's sales have done x10 over the past three years.
- murderfs 4mo agoThat's only a 15% growth per year over 5 years.