6 ms·

And I was told my whole life that capitalism solved everything through supply and demand magic. I wish I could say I am disappointed.

nazgulsenpai 4mo ago
Idealistically, actual consumer driven capitalism would be much closer to supply/ & demand than this (imo) almost completely artificial, government sponsored bubble. I think pricing before this current bubble reflects that.
- surgical_fire 4mo ago
  Because, oddly enough, there are a lot more things going on. Government incentives, companies trying to stranglehold markets, FOMO-fueled massive investiment into the current fad, etc. Just to name a few.
colechristensen 4mo ago
It is supply and demand but chip supply isn't very elastic and the producers are conservative about adding capacity that won't be needed by the time it's online.
- dd8601fn 4mo ago
  Doesn’t this presume that chip fabs are betting that the AI boom is a bubble that’s going to pop? Seems kinda hard to believe at this point, no?
  - colechristensen 4mo ago
    Hard to believe that an industry making money hand over fist are reluctant to spend tens of billions expanding capacity that won't come online for years? There have been SEVERAL crashes that have wiped out the market and it's the reason there are so few players, the rest of them went bankrupt after periods of over-expansion. (in the 80s caused by Japan, in 1997, in 2001ish after the dotcom bust) You're even calling it a bubble so it's not exactly "hard to believe" it will pop.
  - nyeah 4mo ago
    No. It doesn't have to be a bubble at all. It just has to be a cycle of rapid capital equipment build-out that returns to more normal levels in a few years.
- kuerbel 4mo ago
  SK Hynix just said they want to double wafer production by 2031.
  - pixl97 4mo ago
    I mean, I want to double the the number of billions of dollars I have by 2031, doesn't mean I will. (actually I have 0 billion and double 0 billion is still 0 billion, so unlike them I'll accomplish that goal).
    - kuerbel 4mo ago
      They already ordered Hanmi equipment and started construction at Yongin Mega Fab. Sounds pretty serious to me.
  - LaGrange 4mo ago
    By 2031 the best employer in Europe will be the water gangs.
  - stymaar 4mo ago
    Nvidia's sales have done x10 over the past three years.
  - murderfs 4mo ago
    That's only a 15% growth per year over 5 years.
merelydev 4mo ago
The beauty of supply and demand magic is that the market is now open for anyone that can provide server hosting cheaply.
- surgical_fire 4mo ago
  Good luck getting the hardware for that eh?
  - merelydev 4mo ago
    I volunteer my laptop, I suggest you and others do the same. We can hook them up in a VPN with E2ee. We just need 1 public IP. Lets Go!
    - jermaustin1 4mo ago
      I like this idea for something akin to p2p shared/sharded hosting.
      - merelydev 4mo ago
        Wiregaurd, postgres replication and load balancing can do the job? Lets go: https://matrix.to/#/#hostpool:matrix.org https://matrix.to/#/#hostpool:matrix.org
  - nijave 4mo ago
    That's the rub. There is no such thing as "anyone that can supply hardware cheaply" Either it's an established vendor with designs and fabs or it's a newcomer that needs to invest a massive pile of cash in designs and fabs. Neither are cheap.
- malfist 4mo ago
  I can't wait for a scrappy startup to spend a couple billion dollars and several years setting up a new fab for chips so we can see the prices go down!
loveiswork 4mo ago
What they conveniently leave out is that it sometimes takes over a decade for a correction
- ocdtrekkie 4mo ago
  The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
nh23423fefe 4mo ago
[flagged]
pocksuppet 4mo ago
I was also told this. Why isn't it happening? Can some capitalists explain why capitalism isn't happening the way it's supposed to? Is it because of government regulations, do we need to deregulate?
- ssl-3 4mo ago
  Capitalism isn't a magical instant fix. In this context, it takes spending enormous piles of money over the course of at least several years to spin up new semiconductor production. We do need more capacity to keep up with AI datacenters' usage, yes. But adding long-term capacity years down the road for a thing that some folks seem to confidently think is a bubble that can pop at any time is risky. And (because capitalism), we have to manage carefully balance our risks and rewards in order to maximize our odds of success. If there is no bubble and demand stays high long-term, then the payoff for that risk is potentially enormous. If there is a bubble and it bursts, then the cost of that risk is potentially devastating. (Capitalism works most-predictably when cheating is possible, such as with Biff's use of the time machine in Back to the Future II. But without cheats, it's always a gamble.)
- Const-me 4mo ago
  “Is it because of government regulations, do we need to deregulate?” Insufficient law enforcement. The same memory manufacturers already broke antimonopoly laws in the past, pleaded guilty. Apparently the fines were too small for these companies to care, and the people responsible were promoted instead of being punished. More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

nazgulsenpai 4mo ago

Idealistically, actual consumer driven capitalism would be much closer to supply/ & demand than this (imo) almost completely artificial, government sponsored bubble. I think pricing before this current bubble reflects that.

surgical_fire 4mo ago
Because, oddly enough, there are a lot more things going on. Government incentives, companies trying to stranglehold markets, FOMO-fueled massive investiment into the current fad, etc. Just to name a few.

colechristensen 4mo ago

It is supply and demand but chip supply isn't very elastic and the producers are conservative about adding capacity that won't be needed by the time it's online.

dd8601fn 4mo ago
Doesn’t this presume that chip fabs are betting that the AI boom is a bubble that’s going to pop? Seems kinda hard to believe at this point, no?
- colechristensen 4mo ago
  Hard to believe that an industry making money hand over fist are reluctant to spend tens of billions expanding capacity that won't come online for years? There have been SEVERAL crashes that have wiped out the market and it's the reason there are so few players, the rest of them went bankrupt after periods of over-expansion. (in the 80s caused by Japan, in 1997, in 2001ish after the dotcom bust) You're even calling it a bubble so it's not exactly "hard to believe" it will pop.
- nyeah 4mo ago
  No. It doesn't have to be a bubble at all. It just has to be a cycle of rapid capital equipment build-out that returns to more normal levels in a few years.
kuerbel 4mo ago
SK Hynix just said they want to double wafer production by 2031.
- pixl97 4mo ago
  I mean, I want to double the the number of billions of dollars I have by 2031, doesn't mean I will. (actually I have 0 billion and double 0 billion is still 0 billion, so unlike them I'll accomplish that goal).
  - kuerbel 4mo ago
    They already ordered Hanmi equipment and started construction at Yongin Mega Fab. Sounds pretty serious to me.
- LaGrange 4mo ago
  By 2031 the best employer in Europe will be the water gangs.
- stymaar 4mo ago
  Nvidia's sales have done x10 over the past three years.
- murderfs 4mo ago
  That's only a 15% growth per year over 5 years.

merelydev 4mo ago

The beauty of supply and demand magic is that the market is now open for anyone that can provide server hosting cheaply.

surgical_fire 4mo ago
Good luck getting the hardware for that eh?
- merelydev 4mo ago
  I volunteer my laptop, I suggest you and others do the same. We can hook them up in a VPN with E2ee. We just need 1 public IP. Lets Go!
  - jermaustin1 4mo ago
    I like this idea for something akin to p2p shared/sharded hosting.
    - merelydev 4mo ago
      Wiregaurd, postgres replication and load balancing can do the job? Lets go: https://matrix.to/#/#hostpool:matrix.org https://matrix.to/#/#hostpool:matrix.org
- nijave 4mo ago
  That's the rub. There is no such thing as "anyone that can supply hardware cheaply" Either it's an established vendor with designs and fabs or it's a newcomer that needs to invest a massive pile of cash in designs and fabs. Neither are cheap.
malfist 4mo ago
I can't wait for a scrappy startup to spend a couple billion dollars and several years setting up a new fab for chips so we can see the prices go down!

loveiswork 4mo ago

What they conveniently leave out is that it sometimes takes over a decade for a correction

ocdtrekkie 4mo ago
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

nh23423fefe 4mo ago

[flagged]

pocksuppet 4mo ago

I was also told this. Why isn't it happening? Can some capitalists explain why capitalism isn't happening the way it's supposed to? Is it because of government regulations, do we need to deregulate?

ssl-3 4mo ago
Capitalism isn't a magical instant fix. In this context, it takes spending enormous piles of money over the course of at least several years to spin up new semiconductor production. We do need more capacity to keep up with AI datacenters' usage, yes. But adding long-term capacity years down the road for a thing that some folks seem to confidently think is a bubble that can pop at any time is risky. And (because capitalism), we have to manage carefully balance our risks and rewards in order to maximize our odds of success. If there is no bubble and demand stays high long-term, then the payoff for that risk is potentially enormous. If there is a bubble and it bursts, then the cost of that risk is potentially devastating. (Capitalism works most-predictably when cheating is possible, such as with Biff's use of the time machine in Back to the Future II. But without cheats, it's always a gamble.)
Const-me 4mo ago
“Is it because of government regulations, do we need to deregulate?” Insufficient law enforcement. The same memory manufacturers already broke antimonopoly laws in the past, pleaded guilty. Apparently the fines were too small for these companies to care, and the people responsible were promoted instead of being punished. More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal