5 ms·

Obama's agreement didn't stop enrichment, leading to the current crisis.

by glimshe 4mo ago

comrade1234 4mo ago
It did though? Trump pulled out of the deal in his first term and then Iran enriched from 3%.
- tristanj 4mo ago
  JCPOA only had temporary enrichment limits, which would end in 2030, after which Iran could enrich freely. It did not permanently stop enrichment. If JCPOA was followed by both Iran and the US to the letter, we would face a similar crisis to the one seen today, except around 2031-2035.
  - defrost 4mo ago
    Unless agreements are renegotiated and extended, of course. What matters is ongoing engagement and monitoring, it's a far more tractable position than standoffs with zero knowledge or interaction.
    - tristanj 4mo ago
      The core reason those sunset dates exist is because Iranian officials stated that a sunset on enrichment limits was a non-negotiable. They would not sign a deal without them. Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What incentive does Iran have to agree to enrichment caps post-2030? Why would Iran give up its strongest negotiating card, its nuclear program?
      - cosmicgadget 4mo ago
        For the same reasons it temporarily gave it up before?
        tristanj 4mo ago
        Under JCPOA, Iran capped its nuclear program for 15 years in exchange for: * Global sanctions relief * $100-150 billion in frozen assets * Access to the global oil market Iran in 2030 under JCPOA already has access to all three. The US already played its best cards to get Iran to agree to JCPOA. The US has little new to offer, other than resumed sanctions.
        cosmicgadget 4mo ago
        Well yes, exactly. Would sanctions not be an incentive in 2030?
        no-name-here 4mo ago
        Under a JCPOA extension, why would items like access to the global oil markets (in addition to sanctions) not be part of the negotiations? And with JCPOA and its possible continuation, that was a joint agreement among a number of countries - in the current situation, it’s just the U.S./Israel (+ them trying to impose their will on other countries to go along with any carrots/sticks).
        drnick1 4mo ago
        > The US has little new to offer, other than resumed sanctions. Not turning the country into a parking lot is a rather generous offer.
      - kelnos 4mo ago
        > Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What's not hypothetical is that, under the deal, they agreed to not enrich until 2030. What's not hypothetical is that Trump abandoned the deal, with nothing to replace it, allowing them to start enriching in 2017 instead. And if you're going to claim that renegotiation is hypothetical, then you also have to agree that any other possible future outcome, including one in which Iran develops a functional nuclear weapon, is also hypothetical.
  - drbojingle 4mo ago
    and lord knows a new deal would not be possible by that time...
  - kelnos 4mo ago
    Ok, so Trump gave them 13 years of enrichment that they wouldn't otherwise have had. And those 13 years would have been plenty of time to extend or renegotiate that agreement.
wolvoleo 4mo ago
It did to weapons grade. It only permitted enrichment for energy purposes. And was validated by inspections. The current crisis is entirely because Trump trashed that agreement in the first place.
- tristanj 4mo ago
  The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue. JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely. JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-year sunset on enrichment was a non-negotiable.
  - hypeatei 4mo ago
    > The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons According to whom? I know there's one country who says Iran is two weeks away from nuclear weapons, but who else?
    - tristanj 4mo ago
      According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidation" in accordance with a Quranic verse about striking "fear in the hearts of the enemies of Allah." "When we began our nuclear activity, our goal was indeed to build a bomb,” former Iranian politician Ali Motahari told ISCA News. “There is no need to beat around the bush,” he said. When asked if saying this publicly will negatively affect the ongoing JCPOA negotiations, Motahari answered: "Nobody notices what I am saying." https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motahari-iran-nuclear-program-build-bomb https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motaha... https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312 https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312
kelnos 4mo ago
You mean the crisis that was entirely manufactured, after our own intelligence agencies said Iran was not building a nuclear weapon?

Obama's agreement didn't stop enrichment, leading to the current crisis.

by glimshe 4mo ago

Obama's agreement didn't stop enrichment, leading to the current crisis.

comrade1234 4mo ago

It did though? Trump pulled out of the deal in his first term and then Iran enriched from 3%.

tristanj 4mo ago
JCPOA only had temporary enrichment limits, which would end in 2030, after which Iran could enrich freely. It did not permanently stop enrichment. If JCPOA was followed by both Iran and the US to the letter, we would face a similar crisis to the one seen today, except around 2031-2035.
- defrost 4mo ago
  Unless agreements are renegotiated and extended, of course. What matters is ongoing engagement and monitoring, it's a far more tractable position than standoffs with zero knowledge or interaction.
  - tristanj 4mo ago
    The core reason those sunset dates exist is because Iranian officials stated that a sunset on enrichment limits was a non-negotiable. They would not sign a deal without them. Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What incentive does Iran have to agree to enrichment caps post-2030? Why would Iran give up its strongest negotiating card, its nuclear program?
    - cosmicgadget 4mo ago
      For the same reasons it temporarily gave it up before?
      - tristanj 4mo ago
        Under JCPOA, Iran capped its nuclear program for 15 years in exchange for: * Global sanctions relief * $100-150 billion in frozen assets * Access to the global oil market Iran in 2030 under JCPOA already has access to all three. The US already played its best cards to get Iran to agree to JCPOA. The US has little new to offer, other than resumed sanctions.
        cosmicgadget 4mo ago
        Well yes, exactly. Would sanctions not be an incentive in 2030?
        no-name-here 4mo ago
        Under a JCPOA extension, why would items like access to the global oil markets (in addition to sanctions) not be part of the negotiations? And with JCPOA and its possible continuation, that was a joint agreement among a number of countries - in the current situation, it’s just the U.S./Israel (+ them trying to impose their will on other countries to go along with any carrots/sticks).
        drnick1 4mo ago
        > The US has little new to offer, other than resumed sanctions. Not turning the country into a parking lot is a rather generous offer.
    - kelnos 4mo ago
      > Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What's not hypothetical is that, under the deal, they agreed to not enrich until 2030. What's not hypothetical is that Trump abandoned the deal, with nothing to replace it, allowing them to start enriching in 2017 instead. And if you're going to claim that renegotiation is hypothetical, then you also have to agree that any other possible future outcome, including one in which Iran develops a functional nuclear weapon, is also hypothetical.
- drbojingle 4mo ago
  and lord knows a new deal would not be possible by that time...
- kelnos 4mo ago
  Ok, so Trump gave them 13 years of enrichment that they wouldn't otherwise have had. And those 13 years would have been plenty of time to extend or renegotiate that agreement.

wolvoleo 4mo ago

It did to weapons grade. It only permitted enrichment for energy purposes. And was validated by inspections. The current crisis is entirely because Trump trashed that agreement in the first place.

tristanj 4mo ago
The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue. JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich freely. JCPOA had no extension framework, the deal could not be extended without being renegotiated. And Iranian officials refused to agree to permanent enrichment caps, they said the 15-year sunset on enrichment was a non-negotiable.
- hypeatei 4mo ago
  > The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons According to whom? I know there's one country who says Iran is two weeks away from nuclear weapons, but who else?
  - tristanj 4mo ago
    According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that when Iran began developing its nuclear program, the goal was to build a nuclear bomb. He said that there is no need to beat around the bush, and that the bomb would have been used as a "means of intimidation" in accordance with a Quranic verse about striking "fear in the hearts of the enemies of Allah." "When we began our nuclear activity, our goal was indeed to build a bomb,” former Iranian politician Ali Motahari told ISCA News. “There is no need to beat around the bush,” he said. When asked if saying this publicly will negatively affect the ongoing JCPOA negotiations, Motahari answered: "Nobody notices what I am saying." https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motahari-iran-nuclear-program-build-bomb https://www.memri.org/tv/former-iranian-majles-member-motaha... https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312 https://www.iranintl.com/en/202204245312

kelnos 4mo ago

You mean the crisis that was entirely manufactured, after our own intelligence agencies said Iran was not building a nuclear weapon?