4 ms·

Also, the u.s. makes Israel stop destroying Lebanon. Trump is already pressing Israel on this. Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

smt88 4mo ago
Trump hasn’t (so far) demonstrated the ability to stop Israel from bombing and invading Lebanon, so I’m not sure what we can hope will change before Netanyahu leaves office.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- roryirvine 4mo ago
  Presumably there's the tacit acceptance that Iran would use that as an excuse to continue funding proxies and launching occasional missile attacks. A return to the status quo ante.
- ndiddy 4mo ago
  Iran seems to believe that their negotiating position will get better and better as time goes on. I'm not sure if they're right, but the terms they got Trump to agree to certainly indicate that they are. From that perspective, their current position regarding Lebanon makes sense. The more Israel attacks Lebanon, the more concessions Iran is able to extract from the US in their negotiations in exchange for not resuming the war. It's clear at this point that the only realistic outcome of the war is a negotiated settlement with Iran, so all resuming the fighting would do is kick the can down the road to a point where Iran's position is even better and the US's position is even worse.
- tharmas 4mo ago
  There's a theory that BB is the bad cop, USA the good cop. USA lets BB do the dirty work and gets the blame. Every time there's a pending "deal" with Iran, BB skuttles it by attacking Lebanon or Gaza etc. What BB does is with USA's blessing. USA doesn't want a deal with Iran. USA wants control of the oil and Iran regime toppled. It's ultimately about controlling the world's oil supplies to put the squeeze on China.
  - smt88 4mo ago
    That doesn’t hold water to me because Trump looks foolish whenever Israel violates the ceasefire, and Trump isn’t strategic or forward-thinking enough to let himself look weak for an ulterior motive. He’s never done it before. We also have very credible leakers from within the Situation Room now, so we’ll find out a lot more soon.
    - tharmas 4mo ago
      You have a point, but remember tRump gets to pass himself off as the "good" guy. Also, there is absolutely no way that Israel gets to act autonomously. They are a vassal state beholden to the USA. The USA calls the shots when it comes to Israel. The same with Ukraine. Ukraine does not attack deep inside Russia without the blessing of the USA. Israel and Ukraine are US proxies doing the dirty work for the USA.
seszett 4mo ago
> Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors. "Come across as", as much as I despise Iran's regime, it seems like it is de facto the only country actually doing anything other than strong words for Lebanon. Too bad the US blunder happened too late for Gaza and Palestine.
red-iron-pine 4mo ago
arguably, Israel won't stop, and it will tank the deal. It already has set it back a few times.
- Hikikomori 4mo ago
  Just a minor setback of killing Irans negotiators several times.
Animats 4mo ago
Haaretz reports that Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is not part of the deal.[1] Hezbollah reports they're currently fighting an Israeli attack.[2] So, for now, Israel vs. Lebanon is still on. Israel's internal politics are confused right now. Times of Israel: "With Trump’s Iran deal, the October 7 wars are over. Israel really has no idea what to do next" [3] The haredim are rioting because some draft dodgers were arrested. Elections are coming up. Netanyahu is struggling to stay in power. (Like Trump, he faces trials once out of power.) [1] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-06-15/ty-article/.premium/israeli-withdrawal-from-lebanon-not-part-of-u-s-iran-deal-wh-official-says/0000019e-cc34-d9a8-a5de-df772bc90000 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-06... [2] https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/320711-hezbollah-attacks-israeli-force-in-south-in-response-to-ceasefire-violation https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/320711-hezbollah-attacks... [3] https://www.timesofisrael.com/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/

smt88 4mo ago

Trump hasn’t (so far) demonstrated the ability to stop Israel from bombing and invading Lebanon, so I’m not sure what we can hope will change before Netanyahu leaves office.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
roryirvine 4mo ago
Presumably there's the tacit acceptance that Iran would use that as an excuse to continue funding proxies and launching occasional missile attacks. A return to the status quo ante.
ndiddy 4mo ago
Iran seems to believe that their negotiating position will get better and better as time goes on. I'm not sure if they're right, but the terms they got Trump to agree to certainly indicate that they are. From that perspective, their current position regarding Lebanon makes sense. The more Israel attacks Lebanon, the more concessions Iran is able to extract from the US in their negotiations in exchange for not resuming the war. It's clear at this point that the only realistic outcome of the war is a negotiated settlement with Iran, so all resuming the fighting would do is kick the can down the road to a point where Iran's position is even better and the US's position is even worse.
tharmas 4mo ago
There's a theory that BB is the bad cop, USA the good cop. USA lets BB do the dirty work and gets the blame. Every time there's a pending "deal" with Iran, BB skuttles it by attacking Lebanon or Gaza etc. What BB does is with USA's blessing. USA doesn't want a deal with Iran. USA wants control of the oil and Iran regime toppled. It's ultimately about controlling the world's oil supplies to put the squeeze on China.
- smt88 4mo ago
  That doesn’t hold water to me because Trump looks foolish whenever Israel violates the ceasefire, and Trump isn’t strategic or forward-thinking enough to let himself look weak for an ulterior motive. He’s never done it before. We also have very credible leakers from within the Situation Room now, so we’ll find out a lot more soon.
  - tharmas 4mo ago
    You have a point, but remember tRump gets to pass himself off as the "good" guy. Also, there is absolutely no way that Israel gets to act autonomously. They are a vassal state beholden to the USA. The USA calls the shots when it comes to Israel. The same with Ukraine. Ukraine does not attack deep inside Russia without the blessing of the USA. Israel and Ukraine are US proxies doing the dirty work for the USA.

seszett 4mo ago

> Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors. "Come across as", as much as I despise Iran's regime, it seems like it is de facto the only country actually doing anything other than strong words for Lebanon. Too bad the US blunder happened too late for Gaza and Palestine.

red-iron-pine 4mo ago

arguably, Israel won't stop, and it will tank the deal. It already has set it back a few times.

Hikikomori 4mo ago
Just a minor setback of killing Irans negotiators several times.

Animats 4mo ago

Haaretz reports that Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is not part of the deal.[1] Hezbollah reports they're currently fighting an Israeli attack.[2] So, for now, Israel vs. Lebanon is still on. Israel's internal politics are confused right now. Times of Israel: "With Trump’s Iran deal, the October 7 wars are over. Israel really has no idea what to do next" [3] The haredim are rioting because some draft dodgers were arrested. Elections are coming up. Netanyahu is struggling to stay in power. (Like Trump, he faces trials once out of power.) [1] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-06-15/ty-article/.premium/israeli-withdrawal-from-lebanon-not-part-of-u-s-iran-deal-wh-official-says/0000019e-cc34-d9a8-a5de-df772bc90000 https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-06... [2] https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/320711-hezbollah-attacks-israeli-force-in-south-in-response-to-ceasefire-violation https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/320711-hezbollah-attacks... [3] https://www.timesofisrael.com/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/