3 ms·

I understand the point being made, but it does feel a bit like writing a post in the early days of the internet saying: "No, everyone is not using the internet

I understand the point being made, but it does feel a bit like writing a post in the early days of the internet saying: "No, everyone is not using the internet for everything." Which would have been entirely true when written, and entirely false a relatively short time later. Everyone does use the internet for everything today, and everyone will use AI for everything soon.

sublinear 4mo ago
You'll find it hard to pin down what you mean by "everything" otherwise you wouldn't have said that. Nobody uses the internet for everything. Local models are highly likely to dominate in the long run as "good enough" inevitably becomes trivially cheap. This is a very different pattern of incentives and adoption compared to the internet. I think it's more similar to the advent of personal computers. They had a brief surge and then turned into something else (smartphones, cloud, etc.) for all but a few niche cases. AI is not changing the consumer landscape. It's getting absorbed into existing platforms where there's a clear use case and benefit. It's just another expected software feature. This is far from the first time people have rejected a "personal assistant" concept and they'll just keep rejecting it.
- jacobgold 4mo ago
  It seems fair to leave the definition of "everything" to a reasonable person's interpretation. It's obvious that the internet is beyond ubiquitous in modern life. I agree that where models run will will change over time, probably they'll run everywhere, but it's still the same kind of AI we are talking about. Smartphones are personal computers.
  - sublinear 4mo ago
    Just about every app has a "help" button, but do you really use it? What about captions on a video or any number of other accessibility features? They're in everything, but not used for everything. It makes perfect sense that they exist and were way overdue for an update, but they're just extra blades on the multitool. Perhaps in some designs they become more integral, but that is expected and invisible. Yes "everything", but that's not even close to sufficient to become a huge breakthrough like the internet.
mawadev 4mo ago
In my non-tech circle, most people don't even realize how the internet is running literally everything. Even if we start to use mass scale AI for something, they wouldn't realize or care much about it. They at best turn on the TV to watch netflix or look at the phone to send messages on whatsapp. If all of that went away tomorrow, they'd be inconvenienced at best and then go on with their day to day life. This feels like we are literally all in our IT echo chamber where we throw stuff on walls and go crazy, while the world is sunshine and rainbows, always been.
- jacobgold 4mo ago
  "They at best turn on the TV to watch netflix or look at the phone to send messages on whatsapp. If all of that went away tomorrow, they'd be inconvenienced at best and then go on with their day to day life." I'm not saying it is a good thing, but this is completely out of touch with how dependent (most) people are on these technologies.
  - mawadev 4mo ago
    I'd say its just businesses and governments that are dependant, most people can get by just fine
    - simonw 4mo ago
      A lot of people are genuinely stranded if their phone runs out of battery. How do they pull up a map, or call an Uber, or phone someone to pick them up?
      - layer8 4mo ago
        The cellular phone network doesn’t require the internet to work.
        simonw 4mo ago
        It does require the phone to have battery charge.

sublinear 4mo ago

You'll find it hard to pin down what you mean by "everything" otherwise you wouldn't have said that. Nobody uses the internet for everything. Local models are highly likely to dominate in the long run as "good enough" inevitably becomes trivially cheap. This is a very different pattern of incentives and adoption compared to the internet. I think it's more similar to the advent of personal computers. They had a brief surge and then turned into something else (smartphones, cloud, etc.) for all but a few niche cases. AI is not changing the consumer landscape. It's getting absorbed into existing platforms where there's a clear use case and benefit. It's just another expected software feature. This is far from the first time people have rejected a "personal assistant" concept and they'll just keep rejecting it.

jacobgold 4mo ago
It seems fair to leave the definition of "everything" to a reasonable person's interpretation. It's obvious that the internet is beyond ubiquitous in modern life. I agree that where models run will will change over time, probably they'll run everywhere, but it's still the same kind of AI we are talking about. Smartphones are personal computers.
- sublinear 4mo ago
  Just about every app has a "help" button, but do you really use it? What about captions on a video or any number of other accessibility features? They're in everything, but not used for everything. It makes perfect sense that they exist and were way overdue for an update, but they're just extra blades on the multitool. Perhaps in some designs they become more integral, but that is expected and invisible. Yes "everything", but that's not even close to sufficient to become a huge breakthrough like the internet.

mawadev 4mo ago

In my non-tech circle, most people don't even realize how the internet is running literally everything. Even if we start to use mass scale AI for something, they wouldn't realize or care much about it. They at best turn on the TV to watch netflix or look at the phone to send messages on whatsapp. If all of that went away tomorrow, they'd be inconvenienced at best and then go on with their day to day life. This feels like we are literally all in our IT echo chamber where we throw stuff on walls and go crazy, while the world is sunshine and rainbows, always been.

jacobgold 4mo ago
"They at best turn on the TV to watch netflix or look at the phone to send messages on whatsapp. If all of that went away tomorrow, they'd be inconvenienced at best and then go on with their day to day life." I'm not saying it is a good thing, but this is completely out of touch with how dependent (most) people are on these technologies.
- mawadev 4mo ago
  I'd say its just businesses and governments that are dependant, most people can get by just fine
  - simonw 4mo ago
    A lot of people are genuinely stranded if their phone runs out of battery. How do they pull up a map, or call an Uber, or phone someone to pick them up?
    - layer8 4mo ago
      The cellular phone network doesn’t require the internet to work.
      - simonw 4mo ago
        It does require the phone to have battery charge.