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One company ordered 370 trucks last month. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-massive-order-semi-370-units-100m/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-massive-order-sem

One company ordered 370 trucks last month. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-massive-order-semi-370-units-100m/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-massive-order-semi-370-units... 2026 production is estimated to be 5k-15k. https://sherwood.news/tech/what-we-know-about-teslas-semi-truck-as-production-nears/ https://sherwood.news/tech/what-we-know-about-teslas-semi-tr... IIRC, 50k is full production, but it'll take a year or few to ramp up to that.

tsimionescu 4mo ago
They claim 5-15k trucks produced in 2026, but the company who apparently ordered those 370 will only get 50 in 2026, per the article you shared. The numbers are not adding up. I think all signs keep pointing to another huge flop by the end of the year, and that Semi will remain a small niche product that various companies order a handful of and never go on to get more. 370 trucks is also still a tiny order, for a truck that supposedly is cheaper to operate than any other on the market, in the midst of an oil crisis no less.
- omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
  Oh yeah, I doubt anyone who makes a large order this year will get their entire order filled given that Tesla is ramping production. Drone footage shows new builds, but they obviously need to get volume up. https://youtu.be/WjkCKODoEjM?t=464 https://youtu.be/WjkCKODoEjM?t=464 Like I mentioned, I think dry cathode 4680 production is key, and I think an earlier video from the same person discuses what they believe is equipment for a dry cathode line that will be set up inside the semi factory. It took Tesla a year just to get Model 3 up production from nearly nothing over the first few months to 4k+ units/week, and the semi is larger/more complex. I'd be surprised if we saw 500+ units/month by December. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-surpasses-6k-per-week/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-surpasses... While high oil prices are attractive in terms of investment, if oil companies aren't very confident about making large/fast investments in this climate, I don't EV manufacturers are going to be. My guess is that Tesla will gradually ramp production in a cost effective way, like they have in the past. It's better to miss a timeline and deliver a cost-effective/competitive product than the other way around.

tsimionescu 4mo ago

They claim 5-15k trucks produced in 2026, but the company who apparently ordered those 370 will only get 50 in 2026, per the article you shared. The numbers are not adding up. I think all signs keep pointing to another huge flop by the end of the year, and that Semi will remain a small niche product that various companies order a handful of and never go on to get more. 370 trucks is also still a tiny order, for a truck that supposedly is cheaper to operate than any other on the market, in the midst of an oil crisis no less.

omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
Oh yeah, I doubt anyone who makes a large order this year will get their entire order filled given that Tesla is ramping production. Drone footage shows new builds, but they obviously need to get volume up. https://youtu.be/WjkCKODoEjM?t=464 https://youtu.be/WjkCKODoEjM?t=464 Like I mentioned, I think dry cathode 4680 production is key, and I think an earlier video from the same person discuses what they believe is equipment for a dry cathode line that will be set up inside the semi factory. It took Tesla a year just to get Model 3 up production from nearly nothing over the first few months to 4k+ units/week, and the semi is larger/more complex. I'd be surprised if we saw 500+ units/month by December. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-surpasses-6k-per-week/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-surpasses... While high oil prices are attractive in terms of investment, if oil companies aren't very confident about making large/fast investments in this climate, I don't EV manufacturers are going to be. My guess is that Tesla will gradually ramp production in a cost effective way, like they have in the past. It's better to miss a timeline and deliver a cost-effective/competitive product than the other way around.