40 ms·

This is good PR for them. They get to tweet about how scary and powerful their models are in the lead up to their IPO.

by maplethorpe 4mo ago

dpkirchner 4mo ago
"Our models are so good the government decides whether or you get access -- so you better not depend on them!"
karmasimida 4mo ago
Incorrect. Heavy government regulation means it is limited how they can sell this model and to whom.
nandomrumber 4mo ago
[dead]
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
chrismsimpson 4mo ago
Cratering their user base outside of the US is hardly going to be good for their IPO.
- idiotsecant 4mo ago
  This is just a case of not greasing the right palms. Some contributions will be made and this goes away.
  - bag_boy 4mo ago
    “Anthropic buys 75% of Truth Social’s ad inventory”
    - 256BitChris 4mo ago
      Funny. But unfortunately this is well within the realm of possibilities these days.
- palisade 4mo ago
  You're mistaken, this is a cratering of the userbase inside and outside of the US. The ban is on any foreigner whether abroad or living in the USA, so Anthropic has no choice but to completely shut down access to the model for the whole world including the US. Their IPO is well and truly fucked now. This also means no other frontier lab in the US is allowed to exceed Opus 4.8 capabilities. If you're a luddite or a decel you should literally be dancing in the streets right now. And, if you're a tankie you'll be dancing right next to them. And, if you were hoping for a Star Trek-like future, you just adjusted your timeline for the worse.
  - untcarcandy 4mo ago
    [dead]
  - SepiaSapient 4mo ago
    >this is a cratering of the userbase inside and outside of the US. Is it really? It was limited release anyway (like hypebeast merch!). Everything people are gonna talk about for a week is gonna be about how Fable was so cool that it got banned by the feds. If it's just the Trump admin being the Trump admin, Amodei is just gonna have to pay up as a racket / marketing expense. Or it is like I'm suspecting and this was pre-bribed and the ban is kabuki theater. >And, if you were hoping for a Star Trek-like future, you just adjusted your timeline for the worse. The funny thing is that solar and batteries advancements are actually this, not LLMs, but your framing kinda fits anyways.
    - SXX 4mo ago
      > The funny thing is that solar and batteries advancements are actually this No no no, dont say it here. Green tech is now owned by China that wants to destroy everything. And US bigtech working hard to save everything by building safe controlled super AI that will burn all the energy it has access to.
  - vrganj 4mo ago
    The Star Trek future is back on track. Star Trek is cyber socialism, with the means of production owned by the Federation. China is the only player working towards this.
mahkeiro 4mo ago
It mainly shows that this is another US companies that cannot be trusted by anyone outside of the US because of the US government.
avaer 4mo ago
They've already been labeled a "supply chain risk". Probably not a good idea to upset the regulators more. Maybe tomorrow Opus will be declared too dangerous for the public.
ks2048 4mo ago
It would be if it was rationally tied to the strength of the model. More likely, it’s simply the government deciding who can compete.
andix 4mo ago
This just made any closed LLM a huge supply chain risk. Everybody was aware of this possibility, but now it actually happened. It's like having nuclear weapons vs. firing a nuclear weapon. Especially outside the US customers are going to be very hesitant to keep adopting LLMs from US companies.
- alephnerd 4mo ago
  > Especially outside the US customers are going to be very hesitant to keep adopting LLMs from US companies. Not really. There aren't any other choices, and the PRC also heavily utilizes export controls [0]. This is why sovereign AI has become important, as can be seen with EU NatSec uses cases tending to use Mistral [1] and Indian governments starting to use Sarvam [2]. That said, for most commercial usecases, older generations of Opus as well as enterprise grade GPT and Gemini are fairly good. The distilled OSS models are alright for hobbyists but if you have actually used unrestricted and enterprise grade versions of Claude, Mythos, GPT, and Gemini (most hobbyists don't get access to these) you see how far behind the open weight models are. Even in China, traditionally open minded models teams like Alibaba's Qwen are looking to become more restricted given the org changes [3]. Also, Corporate RFCs now demand final say on model used and depending on the geo, this can be a dealbreaker (eg. An American financial institution will absolutely blacklist a vendor if they use a Chinese model and same in reverse and European defense vendors mandate sovereign EU models depending on the opportunity). [0] - https://www.allbrightlaw.com/EN/10475/f9d4055e47e81afb.aspx https://www.allbrightlaw.com/EN/10475/f9d4055e47e81afb.aspx [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/mistral-defends-ai-use-warfare-rebuts-pope-criticism-2026-05-28/ https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/mistral-defen... [2] - https://www.sarvam.ai/blogs/partnerships-with-indian-states https://www.sarvam.ai/blogs/partnerships-with-indian-states [3] - https://www.ft.com/content/b39da303-3188-447b-8b65-3dd8dad8b59a?syn-25a6b1a6=1 https://www.ft.com/content/b39da303-3188-447b-8b65-3dd8dad8b...
  - andix 4mo ago
    > There aren't any other choices This might be the trigger for creating other choices. Not within a month, but things can change quickly.
adgjlsfhk1 4mo ago
it may be really good pr, but it's really bad for their IPO. If their market for future models is usa only, their potential revenue is cut by 50% at least. (and it's even worse because it means Europe, India, and China will all have companies making their own models that anthropic needs to stay ahead of)
- klardotsh 4mo ago
  Another sibling thread already called this out, but mentioning here: it's not "USA only", it's "US citizens only" (and I'm not entirely sure how dual-citizenship interacts with this, but I assume you can't sell to them, either, since they are by definition also foreign nationals). A private company only being able to do business with folks they can verify are solely US citizens (who themselves are also willing to submit verification of said citizenship to a private company), has a relatively small pool of potential users. And so if this policy holds, Anthropic has functionally had Fable killed by government intervention, and in a logically consistent world, this would imply all other US-based AI labs may also never exceed existing (read: Opus) capabilities. What interesting times we live in, indeed.
  - STELLANOVA 4mo ago
    Regarding the dual-citizenship, you are wrong to assume that. To US government you are US citizen and that is all that matters, even if you have 5 different citizenships government and justice system don't care, you need to follow the US laws and can't cherry pick what you want. Regarding users, for any of this big 3 (Alphabet, Anthropic, OpenAI) only important customers are enterprises, not individual users.
  - drevil-v2 4mo ago
    It kills their entire Enterprise market which is a far bigger deal than just consumer KYC headaches
    - STELLANOVA 4mo ago
      I don't think so, most of enterprise customers are US based companies. They will basically give Mythos to US citizens in R&D while others will use Opus. I hope this is not the actual intent.
idiotsecant 4mo ago
And they don't have to actually serve expensive model compute and this all goes away once they contribute to the right charitable organizations and patriotic causes funneling money to the right people. This is quite clearly corporate capture of the white house by a competitor influencing policy, but it's hard to imagine something that plays more into anthropic's hand. They now own the model that was so good the US government made them shut it off.
philip1209 4mo ago
“Not a commodity”
Salgat 4mo ago
It also signals that Anthropic is a bad choice if you need stable access to their product outside the US.
taytus 4mo ago
I think it's the opposite. Who would want to buy shares in a company that's been flagged as a supply chain risk?
- paulddraper 4mo ago
  But what happens when they fix whatever's making it a risk?
  - nozzlegear 4mo ago
    They'll walk away with two black eyes from the US government, and we'll all be left to speculate on when the next sucker punch will land
  - snackerblues 4mo ago
    They literally state here that they can't do that, since the risk is jailbreaking which seems to be an intrinsic part of LLMs.
    - paulddraper 4mo ago
      Put the LLM in a jail. It can't get out. Not if it's a good jail. Solved.
- SepiaSapient 4mo ago
  The secret ingredient is public and brazen bribery, and the one thing that Anthropic doesn't lack is cash.
agentic_vector 4mo ago
Indeed, this affects way more than just Anthropic.
Caius-Cosades 4mo ago
Is it now? From a company's point of view, does it really matter that some expensive tool is allegedly good or not if it's reliability/availability is poor and subject to completely arbitrary and unpredictable change?

This is good PR for them. They get to tweet about how scary and powerful their models are in the lead up to their IPO.

dpkirchner 4mo ago

"Our models are so good the government decides whether or you get access -- so you better not depend on them!"

karmasimida 4mo ago

Incorrect. Heavy government regulation means it is limited how they can sell this model and to whom.

nandomrumber 4mo ago

[dead]

deleted 4mo ago

[deleted]

chrismsimpson 4mo ago

Cratering their user base outside of the US is hardly going to be good for their IPO.

idiotsecant 4mo ago
This is just a case of not greasing the right palms. Some contributions will be made and this goes away.
- bag_boy 4mo ago
  “Anthropic buys 75% of Truth Social’s ad inventory”
  - 256BitChris 4mo ago
    Funny. But unfortunately this is well within the realm of possibilities these days.
palisade 4mo ago
You're mistaken, this is a cratering of the userbase inside and outside of the US. The ban is on any foreigner whether abroad or living in the USA, so Anthropic has no choice but to completely shut down access to the model for the whole world including the US. Their IPO is well and truly fucked now. This also means no other frontier lab in the US is allowed to exceed Opus 4.8 capabilities. If you're a luddite or a decel you should literally be dancing in the streets right now. And, if you're a tankie you'll be dancing right next to them. And, if you were hoping for a Star Trek-like future, you just adjusted your timeline for the worse.
- untcarcandy 4mo ago
  [dead]
- SepiaSapient 4mo ago
  >this is a cratering of the userbase inside and outside of the US. Is it really? It was limited release anyway (like hypebeast merch!). Everything people are gonna talk about for a week is gonna be about how Fable was so cool that it got banned by the feds. If it's just the Trump admin being the Trump admin, Amodei is just gonna have to pay up as a racket / marketing expense. Or it is like I'm suspecting and this was pre-bribed and the ban is kabuki theater. >And, if you were hoping for a Star Trek-like future, you just adjusted your timeline for the worse. The funny thing is that solar and batteries advancements are actually this, not LLMs, but your framing kinda fits anyways.
  - SXX 4mo ago
    > The funny thing is that solar and batteries advancements are actually this No no no, dont say it here. Green tech is now owned by China that wants to destroy everything. And US bigtech working hard to save everything by building safe controlled super AI that will burn all the energy it has access to.
- vrganj 4mo ago
  The Star Trek future is back on track. Star Trek is cyber socialism, with the means of production owned by the Federation. China is the only player working towards this.

mahkeiro 4mo ago

It mainly shows that this is another US companies that cannot be trusted by anyone outside of the US because of the US government.

avaer 4mo ago

They've already been labeled a "supply chain risk". Probably not a good idea to upset the regulators more. Maybe tomorrow Opus will be declared too dangerous for the public.

ks2048 4mo ago

It would be if it was rationally tied to the strength of the model. More likely, it’s simply the government deciding who can compete.

andix 4mo ago

This just made any closed LLM a huge supply chain risk. Everybody was aware of this possibility, but now it actually happened. It's like having nuclear weapons vs. firing a nuclear weapon. Especially outside the US customers are going to be very hesitant to keep adopting LLMs from US companies.

alephnerd 4mo ago
> Especially outside the US customers are going to be very hesitant to keep adopting LLMs from US companies. Not really. There aren't any other choices, and the PRC also heavily utilizes export controls [0]. This is why sovereign AI has become important, as can be seen with EU NatSec uses cases tending to use Mistral [1] and Indian governments starting to use Sarvam [2]. That said, for most commercial usecases, older generations of Opus as well as enterprise grade GPT and Gemini are fairly good. The distilled OSS models are alright for hobbyists but if you have actually used unrestricted and enterprise grade versions of Claude, Mythos, GPT, and Gemini (most hobbyists don't get access to these) you see how far behind the open weight models are. Even in China, traditionally open minded models teams like Alibaba's Qwen are looking to become more restricted given the org changes [3]. Also, Corporate RFCs now demand final say on model used and depending on the geo, this can be a dealbreaker (eg. An American financial institution will absolutely blacklist a vendor if they use a Chinese model and same in reverse and European defense vendors mandate sovereign EU models depending on the opportunity). [0] - https://www.allbrightlaw.com/EN/10475/f9d4055e47e81afb.aspx https://www.allbrightlaw.com/EN/10475/f9d4055e47e81afb.aspx [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/mistral-defends-ai-use-warfare-rebuts-pope-criticism-2026-05-28/ https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/mistral-defen... [2] - https://www.sarvam.ai/blogs/partnerships-with-indian-states https://www.sarvam.ai/blogs/partnerships-with-indian-states [3] - https://www.ft.com/content/b39da303-3188-447b-8b65-3dd8dad8b59a?syn-25a6b1a6=1 https://www.ft.com/content/b39da303-3188-447b-8b65-3dd8dad8b...
- andix 4mo ago
  > There aren't any other choices This might be the trigger for creating other choices. Not within a month, but things can change quickly.

adgjlsfhk1 4mo ago

it may be really good pr, but it's really bad for their IPO. If their market for future models is usa only, their potential revenue is cut by 50% at least. (and it's even worse because it means Europe, India, and China will all have companies making their own models that anthropic needs to stay ahead of)

klardotsh 4mo ago
Another sibling thread already called this out, but mentioning here: it's not "USA only", it's "US citizens only" (and I'm not entirely sure how dual-citizenship interacts with this, but I assume you can't sell to them, either, since they are by definition also foreign nationals). A private company only being able to do business with folks they can verify are solely US citizens (who themselves are also willing to submit verification of said citizenship to a private company), has a relatively small pool of potential users. And so if this policy holds, Anthropic has functionally had Fable killed by government intervention, and in a logically consistent world, this would imply all other US-based AI labs may also never exceed existing (read: Opus) capabilities. What interesting times we live in, indeed.
- STELLANOVA 4mo ago
  Regarding the dual-citizenship, you are wrong to assume that. To US government you are US citizen and that is all that matters, even if you have 5 different citizenships government and justice system don't care, you need to follow the US laws and can't cherry pick what you want. Regarding users, for any of this big 3 (Alphabet, Anthropic, OpenAI) only important customers are enterprises, not individual users.
- drevil-v2 4mo ago
  It kills their entire Enterprise market which is a far bigger deal than just consumer KYC headaches
  - STELLANOVA 4mo ago
    I don't think so, most of enterprise customers are US based companies. They will basically give Mythos to US citizens in R&D while others will use Opus. I hope this is not the actual intent.

idiotsecant 4mo ago

And they don't have to actually serve expensive model compute and this all goes away once they contribute to the right charitable organizations and patriotic causes funneling money to the right people. This is quite clearly corporate capture of the white house by a competitor influencing policy, but it's hard to imagine something that plays more into anthropic's hand. They now own the model that was so good the US government made them shut it off.

philip1209 4mo ago

“Not a commodity”

Salgat 4mo ago

It also signals that Anthropic is a bad choice if you need stable access to their product outside the US.

taytus 4mo ago

I think it's the opposite. Who would want to buy shares in a company that's been flagged as a supply chain risk?

paulddraper 4mo ago
But what happens when they fix whatever's making it a risk?
- nozzlegear 4mo ago
  They'll walk away with two black eyes from the US government, and we'll all be left to speculate on when the next sucker punch will land
- snackerblues 4mo ago
  They literally state here that they can't do that, since the risk is jailbreaking which seems to be an intrinsic part of LLMs.
  - paulddraper 4mo ago
    Put the LLM in a jail. It can't get out. Not if it's a good jail. Solved.
SepiaSapient 4mo ago
The secret ingredient is public and brazen bribery, and the one thing that Anthropic doesn't lack is cash.

agentic_vector 4mo ago

Indeed, this affects way more than just Anthropic.

Caius-Cosades 4mo ago

Is it now? From a company's point of view, does it really matter that some expensive tool is allegedly good or not if it's reliability/availability is poor and subject to completely arbitrary and unpredictable change?