3 ms·

So now that Tesla is clearly crashing, fold it into the more successful SpaceX and get to roll the dice again? Classic Elon. This is the same thing that he did

by btilly 4mo ago

So now that Tesla is clearly crashing, fold it into the more successful SpaceX and get to roll the dice again? Classic Elon. This is the same thing that he did to rescue a failing Solar City by making it part of Tesla. It takes a lot to get where Elon is. But it also takes a willingness to double down over and over again on big bets. And he himself will be the first to admit that the most likely outcome of his strategy was bankruptcy.

fennecfoxy 4mo ago
Look at how many fuck ups there are with basically no repercussions; the dude is still rich. Is any more proof needed that if you ride the coat tails of real engineers and have a propensity for screwing other people over that that is what success really is for a lot of people in business? Just look to the number of huge companies with founding members or integral early members being forced out just as things are getting good ($$$).
- criddell 4mo ago
  > Look at how many fuck ups there are with basically no repercussions; the dude is still rich. I read something that put it into perspective for me. Musk's current net worth is ~ $1 trillion. He could mess up and destroy 99% of his wealth and he would still be worth $10 billion. If he did something stupid again and lost 99% of the remaining 1%, he would still be worth $100 million. It would take him screwing up a third time and losing 99% once again to be down to a middle-class net worth of $1 million.
- btilly 4mo ago
  This is a take on Elon that I cannot agree with. I get it. I know how much people want to hate him. And how much fuel he has given for that. But he's very talented, and really puts in the work. According to people I personally know who work with him closely, he's the real deal. Doesn't stop him from being an asshole. But you get the bad with the good.
  - Fricken 4mo ago
    No, Elon didn't put in a trillion dollars worth of work.
    - s1artibartfast 4mo ago
      Nobody did. That's the cool thing about surplus value creation. You can take $5 of labor, $5 of capital, and make something people will pay $20 for
      - Fricken 4mo ago
        Also it takes lies, cheating, and a propensity for murdering women and children, which are the coolest aspects of surplus value creation.
Gareth321 4mo ago
I don't know who told you Tesla is crashing, but [they lied to you.](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/cYRyThbO/ https://www.tradingview.com/chart/cYRyThbO/)
- MattRix 4mo ago
  That’s the stock, which has very little relation to how the company itself is doing, especially in Tesla’s case!
  - Gareth321 4mo ago
    That would also be inaccurate. They made $4B last year in profit. They also had the second best selling car in the world. I don't think you're using a normal definition of "crash."
snovv_crash 4mo ago
It's like the Martingale strategy for roulette, but if you figure out you have slightly better than 50% returns you have positive expected outcomes.
naishoya 4mo ago
And it still is the most likely outcome; but now it wont be Elon losing 99% of his worth, it will be every pension and retirement, every index fund, every investment portfolio that 'must buy' into this simply because of the scale, regardless of the individual investors' best interests. After losing 99%, Elon would still be worth 10B, but now the risk is with the investors? What is 1% remaining out of the portion of their individual net worth committed to one (or more) of these types of index funds out of a need for "safety?" Oops, that's $100 remaining for every 10K invested; that's roughly the cost of a single steak dinner at a mid-grade chain restaurant. I'm sorry, I just cant imagine that this really ends well. There simply isn't anything approaching reality in the profit:risks at SpaceX.

by btilly 4mo ago

fennecfoxy 4mo ago

Look at how many fuck ups there are with basically no repercussions; the dude is still rich. Is any more proof needed that if you ride the coat tails of real engineers and have a propensity for screwing other people over that that is what success really is for a lot of people in business? Just look to the number of huge companies with founding members or integral early members being forced out just as things are getting good ($$$).

criddell 4mo ago
> Look at how many fuck ups there are with basically no repercussions; the dude is still rich. I read something that put it into perspective for me. Musk's current net worth is ~ $1 trillion. He could mess up and destroy 99% of his wealth and he would still be worth $10 billion. If he did something stupid again and lost 99% of the remaining 1%, he would still be worth $100 million. It would take him screwing up a third time and losing 99% once again to be down to a middle-class net worth of $1 million.
btilly 4mo ago
This is a take on Elon that I cannot agree with. I get it. I know how much people want to hate him. And how much fuel he has given for that. But he's very talented, and really puts in the work. According to people I personally know who work with him closely, he's the real deal. Doesn't stop him from being an asshole. But you get the bad with the good.
- Fricken 4mo ago
  No, Elon didn't put in a trillion dollars worth of work.
  - s1artibartfast 4mo ago
    Nobody did. That's the cool thing about surplus value creation. You can take $5 of labor, $5 of capital, and make something people will pay $20 for
    - Fricken 4mo ago
      Also it takes lies, cheating, and a propensity for murdering women and children, which are the coolest aspects of surplus value creation.

Gareth321 4mo ago

I don't know who told you Tesla is crashing, but [they lied to you.](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/cYRyThbO/ https://www.tradingview.com/chart/cYRyThbO/)

MattRix 4mo ago
That’s the stock, which has very little relation to how the company itself is doing, especially in Tesla’s case!
- Gareth321 4mo ago
  That would also be inaccurate. They made $4B last year in profit. They also had the second best selling car in the world. I don't think you're using a normal definition of "crash."

snovv_crash 4mo ago

It's like the Martingale strategy for roulette, but if you figure out you have slightly better than 50% returns you have positive expected outcomes.

naishoya 4mo ago

And it still is the most likely outcome; but now it wont be Elon losing 99% of his worth, it will be every pension and retirement, every index fund, every investment portfolio that 'must buy' into this simply because of the scale, regardless of the individual investors' best interests. After losing 99%, Elon would still be worth 10B, but now the risk is with the investors? What is 1% remaining out of the portion of their individual net worth committed to one (or more) of these types of index funds out of a need for "safety?" Oops, that's $100 remaining for every 10K invested; that's roughly the cost of a single steak dinner at a mid-grade chain restaurant. I'm sorry, I just cant imagine that this really ends well. There simply isn't anything approaching reality in the profit:risks at SpaceX.