3 ms·

The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom

43 points by mooreds 5mo ago

sleepyguy 5mo ago
It's why Trump is pissing himself trying to get a deal. If the straight stays closed, everyone is fucked.
- fyrn_ 5mo ago
  That's not going to help, price spikes are locked in at this point, even if we got a deal this minute. It would be marginaly better simply because it would improve sentiment.
- subpixel 5mo ago
  Gosh he's not behaving as if he wants to make a deal.
  - ceejayoz 5mo ago
    He wants one. He's just never really been good at it.
  - sleepyguy 5mo ago
    I have been reading that the deal basically includes almost everything Iran has been asking for. Perhaps, the folks around Trump understanding the cliff we are racing for are keeping Trump out of the loop and hope he will just sign something because the pain that is coming has the potential to force a ground war America is not prepared for.
    - vannevar 5mo ago
      Once Iran closed the Strait, Trump's surrender became inevitable. The rest has been a combination of him slowly coming to terms with the inevitability of that outcome, and buying time to come up with a way to spin the catastrophe as a success.
      - AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
        The only way to spin it as a success is to decouple the US from international news sources. Otherwise everyone will be aware that Iran is spinning it as an Iranian victory, and enough people will ask "well, who actually won?" and look at the actual results. And in that reckoning, Trump will have lost. Unless... unless the government of Iran falls during the stalling. If they get no oil revenue... maybe? Could it happen?
  - Sabinus 5mo ago
    He does. He's just stuck in between his previous rethoric about the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and his misreading of IRGC capabilities and will. He can't take a worse deal than the Obama deal he spent years criticizing then personally destroyed, and the Iranians don't seem very inclined to give him anything better.
pkulak 5mo ago
Feels like every day for three months there's a piece about how tomorrow the price of gas is going $200/barrel. It never does though. Gas may just be a lot more elastic now than it was 50 years ago, or even 3 years ago. I have no idea, but I'll believe it when I see it.
- matthewdgreen 5mo ago
  It's a lot more interesting to actually look at the mechanisms, then just to play "I'll believe it when I see it." Right now there are huge drawdowns of storage capacity in the US and Europe and China. Those have finite lifespans, although China has a lot of storage (120 days at 2025 rates.) Also, Chinese refiners have stopped processing as much fuel. Lastly, there's been a big reduction in consumption of transport fuels (again, mostly in China). These have combined to reduce prices in the US and take China off the buying market, so we're seeing lower prices than you might expect. But this stuff won't last forever. If the Hormuz blockage doesn't resolve, things will get bad. You're seeing a patient that's a little more resilient than we thought, but who is mostly being carried through by massive blood transfusions. This buys time, but does not heal the patient.
  - wilkommen 5mo ago
    How is China reducing the consumption of transport fuels? Is that driven by changes in individuals' fuel consumption patterns or by a change on the industrial side?
    - vannevar 5mo ago
      Another article from the other day contains this: And even more importantly, China has slashed its crude imports, turning instead to massive stockpiles. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/business/oil-strait-of-hormuz-iran-gas-prices https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/business/oil-strait-of-hormuz...) Sounds like they're burning through their reserves as well. But since China's economy is more centrally controlled, it's likely they keep bigger reserves.
    - RetroTechie 5mo ago
gamblor956 5mo ago
TLDR: due to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. is exporting most of the oil that used to fill these tanks. If the conflict ends, or the U.S. stops exporting the oil, the tanks will fill up again, but in the case of the latter there are unpleasant political ramifications for Trump and his supporters so they'd rather see 100% inflation instead.
- vannevar 5mo ago
  >If the conflict ends, or the U.S. stops exporting the oil, the tanks will fill up again... Not quite. Once the conflict ends, there will a lag of several months before the tanks will start filling up again. So even if it ends tomorrow, we may still have to ban oil exports for some time. I don't think there are any political ramifications for Trump---he has complete control over what used to be the Republican Party, and banning exports would probably actually help him with undecideds. But he will get heat from his sponsors and handlers in the oil industry. Policy-wise, Trump is a blank sheet of paper, continuously filled in by anyone in a position of power who flatters or bribes him. And the oil industry has been a major patron for him.
  - RetroTechie 5mo ago
    > Once the conflict ends, there will a lag of several months before the tanks will start filling up again. This is what most people seem to be missing. A price spike is pretty much inevitable @ this point. Regardless of Iran-US deal or not. How high the spike(s)? How long? How elastic is world's demand in near-future, as prices spike? We'll find out.
    - FireBeyond 5mo ago
      And as Trump says, "We'll make millions." He doesn't mean you and I, of course, or the US as a whole. Hell, he barely means Big Oil. We, for Trump = "me, my family and my friends".
  - gamblor956 5mo ago
    Yes, if you mean "fill up" as in full it will take a few months. These tanks are massive and there are a lot of them. But it will only take a few days before the tanks start filling up again. A lot of oil runs through this facility: most of the U.S. production excluding the West Coast. They're only running dry right now because other countries are buying expensive U.S. oil on the spot market because they can't get the (cheaper) Middle East oil they already have long-term contracts for. Once the conflict ends, the only lag time for them to switch away from U.S. oil is the time it takes for the tankers to get to their destinations, which is measured in days and weeks, not months.
ticulatedspline 5mo ago
For anyone else out there that looked at the picture and their first thought was "are those tanks open to the rain?" thinking they were just open cylinders seems it's called a floating roof tank : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_floating_roof_tank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_floating_roof_tank And it prevents vapor loss or needing vapor overhead as the roof floats directly on the surface. Rain/snow water is pumped out off the top of the roof as needed.

43 points by mooreds 5mo ago

sleepyguy 5mo ago

It's why Trump is pissing himself trying to get a deal. If the straight stays closed, everyone is fucked.

fyrn_ 5mo ago
That's not going to help, price spikes are locked in at this point, even if we got a deal this minute. It would be marginaly better simply because it would improve sentiment.
subpixel 5mo ago
Gosh he's not behaving as if he wants to make a deal.
- ceejayoz 5mo ago
  He wants one. He's just never really been good at it.
- sleepyguy 5mo ago
  I have been reading that the deal basically includes almost everything Iran has been asking for. Perhaps, the folks around Trump understanding the cliff we are racing for are keeping Trump out of the loop and hope he will just sign something because the pain that is coming has the potential to force a ground war America is not prepared for.
  - vannevar 5mo ago
    Once Iran closed the Strait, Trump's surrender became inevitable. The rest has been a combination of him slowly coming to terms with the inevitability of that outcome, and buying time to come up with a way to spin the catastrophe as a success.
    - AnimalMuppet 5mo ago
      The only way to spin it as a success is to decouple the US from international news sources. Otherwise everyone will be aware that Iran is spinning it as an Iranian victory, and enough people will ask "well, who actually won?" and look at the actual results. And in that reckoning, Trump will have lost. Unless... unless the government of Iran falls during the stalling. If they get no oil revenue... maybe? Could it happen?
- Sabinus 5mo ago
  He does. He's just stuck in between his previous rethoric about the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and his misreading of IRGC capabilities and will. He can't take a worse deal than the Obama deal he spent years criticizing then personally destroyed, and the Iranians don't seem very inclined to give him anything better.

pkulak 5mo ago

Feels like every day for three months there's a piece about how tomorrow the price of gas is going $200/barrel. It never does though. Gas may just be a lot more elastic now than it was 50 years ago, or even 3 years ago. I have no idea, but I'll believe it when I see it.

matthewdgreen 5mo ago
It's a lot more interesting to actually look at the mechanisms, then just to play "I'll believe it when I see it." Right now there are huge drawdowns of storage capacity in the US and Europe and China. Those have finite lifespans, although China has a lot of storage (120 days at 2025 rates.) Also, Chinese refiners have stopped processing as much fuel. Lastly, there's been a big reduction in consumption of transport fuels (again, mostly in China). These have combined to reduce prices in the US and take China off the buying market, so we're seeing lower prices than you might expect. But this stuff won't last forever. If the Hormuz blockage doesn't resolve, things will get bad. You're seeing a patient that's a little more resilient than we thought, but who is mostly being carried through by massive blood transfusions. This buys time, but does not heal the patient.
- wilkommen 5mo ago
  How is China reducing the consumption of transport fuels? Is that driven by changes in individuals' fuel consumption patterns or by a change on the industrial side?
  - vannevar 5mo ago
    Another article from the other day contains this: And even more importantly, China has slashed its crude imports, turning instead to massive stockpiles. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/business/oil-strait-of-hormuz-iran-gas-prices https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/business/oil-strait-of-hormuz...) Sounds like they're burning through their reserves as well. But since China's economy is more centrally controlled, it's likely they keep bigger reserves.
  - RetroTechie 5mo ago

gamblor956 5mo ago

TLDR: due to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. is exporting most of the oil that used to fill these tanks. If the conflict ends, or the U.S. stops exporting the oil, the tanks will fill up again, but in the case of the latter there are unpleasant political ramifications for Trump and his supporters so they'd rather see 100% inflation instead.

vannevar 5mo ago
>If the conflict ends, or the U.S. stops exporting the oil, the tanks will fill up again... Not quite. Once the conflict ends, there will a lag of several months before the tanks will start filling up again. So even if it ends tomorrow, we may still have to ban oil exports for some time. I don't think there are any political ramifications for Trump---he has complete control over what used to be the Republican Party, and banning exports would probably actually help him with undecideds. But he will get heat from his sponsors and handlers in the oil industry. Policy-wise, Trump is a blank sheet of paper, continuously filled in by anyone in a position of power who flatters or bribes him. And the oil industry has been a major patron for him.
- RetroTechie 5mo ago
  > Once the conflict ends, there will a lag of several months before the tanks will start filling up again. This is what most people seem to be missing. A price spike is pretty much inevitable @ this point. Regardless of Iran-US deal or not. How high the spike(s)? How long? How elastic is world's demand in near-future, as prices spike? We'll find out.
  - FireBeyond 5mo ago
    And as Trump says, "We'll make millions." He doesn't mean you and I, of course, or the US as a whole. Hell, he barely means Big Oil. We, for Trump = "me, my family and my friends".
- gamblor956 5mo ago
  Yes, if you mean "fill up" as in full it will take a few months. These tanks are massive and there are a lot of them. But it will only take a few days before the tanks start filling up again. A lot of oil runs through this facility: most of the U.S. production excluding the West Coast. They're only running dry right now because other countries are buying expensive U.S. oil on the spot market because they can't get the (cheaper) Middle East oil they already have long-term contracts for. Once the conflict ends, the only lag time for them to switch away from U.S. oil is the time it takes for the tankers to get to their destinations, which is measured in days and weeks, not months.

ticulatedspline 5mo ago

For anyone else out there that looked at the picture and their first thought was "are those tanks open to the rain?" thinking they were just open cylinders seems it's called a floating roof tank : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_floating_roof_tank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_floating_roof_tank And it prevents vapor loss or needing vapor overhead as the roof floats directly on the surface. Rain/snow water is pumped out off the top of the roof as needed.