3 ms·

Fully autonomous Ukrainian drones. We don't know if Russia hadn't used something before them. The two sides are quite evenly matched

trhway 4mo ago
I don't think it is about technology - a camera module with NPU running YOLO can be had for like $30 from AliExpress. And a lot of other technological weapons is possible on a cheap, yet nor Russia, nor Ukraine are doing it. In case of autonomous drones i don't see them bringing any noticeable benefit over FPV until they are deployed in the numbers an order or two of magnitude larger. Both countries seem yet to reach such number of drones. And the large task here isn't just mere production of the drones, it is the whole system of delivery/deployment/management of those large hives of autonomous drones which also needs to be developed/implemented.
- onemoresoop 4mo ago
  Ukraine does a lot of cheap drones that are highly efficient for their price. Russians do some too but their flagship is based on the Iranian Shaheed which the Ukrainians figured out how to shut them down efficiently. The most devastating and feared russian weapons are the glinding bombs (which are packed with a lot of explosive) but luckily for Ukrainians these gliding bombs lack precision.
  - trhway 4mo ago
    You're mixing together different drone types (payload, range, operational role, etc.). >luckily for Ukrainians these gliding bombs lack precision. Not really. They don't have 3m CEP, that is true. Yet, a 2000lb bomb doesn't need it. They do hit the targeted buildings, which is enough. The main limitation here is that those bombs require military jet planes to launch. Russia is severely limited here.
    - machomaster 4mo ago
      The lack of precision does matter when we are talking about trenches/bunkers and bombs often missing by many dozens and even hundreds of meters.
      - trhway 4mo ago
        Unfortunately they don't miss by hundreds of meters. And Russia frequently uses 3000lb and 6000lb bombs. So missing a bunker a bit doesn't matter - it will still collapse. Here for example it is clearly visible that the bomb misses the building by about 20m https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/25282 https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/25282
        machomaster 4mo ago
        https://t.me/milinfolive/100367 https://t.me/milinfolive/100367 https://t.me/arrowsmap/9958 https://t.me/arrowsmap/9958 Plus all those bombs that fell in Russia, dozens of kilometers away from the target. The precision does get better, but still look at the second pic: https://t.me/milinfolive/150513?single https://t.me/milinfolive/150513?single
        trhway 4mo ago
        Of course, there are a number of cases where those bombs go awry. At least a couple fell even right into the Brjansk city. Those cases though doesn't affect much overall operations. Your first link is more typical - about 15-20m off the target. This is why Russia uses at least 500kg or larger bombs, even 3000kg ones. With that precision they can't use 100kg and 250kg bombs. Which naturally affects how many bombs say a Su-34 can launch - it would have been 8 x 250 and instead it is 4 x 500 or even 1 x 3000. Compare that to say US using 45 kg warhead in a very precise Hellfire missile - the precision hit with that 45 kg warhead in many cases would achieve the same objective as 500kg at 20m.

trhway 4mo ago

I don't think it is about technology - a camera module with NPU running YOLO can be had for like $30 from AliExpress. And a lot of other technological weapons is possible on a cheap, yet nor Russia, nor Ukraine are doing it. In case of autonomous drones i don't see them bringing any noticeable benefit over FPV until they are deployed in the numbers an order or two of magnitude larger. Both countries seem yet to reach such number of drones. And the large task here isn't just mere production of the drones, it is the whole system of delivery/deployment/management of those large hives of autonomous drones which also needs to be developed/implemented.

onemoresoop 4mo ago
Ukraine does a lot of cheap drones that are highly efficient for their price. Russians do some too but their flagship is based on the Iranian Shaheed which the Ukrainians figured out how to shut them down efficiently. The most devastating and feared russian weapons are the glinding bombs (which are packed with a lot of explosive) but luckily for Ukrainians these gliding bombs lack precision.
- trhway 4mo ago
  You're mixing together different drone types (payload, range, operational role, etc.). >luckily for Ukrainians these gliding bombs lack precision. Not really. They don't have 3m CEP, that is true. Yet, a 2000lb bomb doesn't need it. They do hit the targeted buildings, which is enough. The main limitation here is that those bombs require military jet planes to launch. Russia is severely limited here.
  - machomaster 4mo ago
    The lack of precision does matter when we are talking about trenches/bunkers and bombs often missing by many dozens and even hundreds of meters.
    - trhway 4mo ago
      Unfortunately they don't miss by hundreds of meters. And Russia frequently uses 3000lb and 6000lb bombs. So missing a bunker a bit doesn't matter - it will still collapse. Here for example it is clearly visible that the bomb misses the building by about 20m https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/25282 https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/25282
      - machomaster 4mo ago
        https://t.me/milinfolive/100367 https://t.me/milinfolive/100367 https://t.me/arrowsmap/9958 https://t.me/arrowsmap/9958 Plus all those bombs that fell in Russia, dozens of kilometers away from the target. The precision does get better, but still look at the second pic: https://t.me/milinfolive/150513?single https://t.me/milinfolive/150513?single
        trhway 4mo ago
        Of course, there are a number of cases where those bombs go awry. At least a couple fell even right into the Brjansk city. Those cases though doesn't affect much overall operations. Your first link is more typical - about 15-20m off the target. This is why Russia uses at least 500kg or larger bombs, even 3000kg ones. With that precision they can't use 100kg and 250kg bombs. Which naturally affects how many bombs say a Su-34 can launch - it would have been 8 x 250 and instead it is 4 x 500 or even 1 x 3000. Compare that to say US using 45 kg warhead in a very precise Hellfire missile - the precision hit with that 45 kg warhead in many cases would achieve the same objective as 500kg at 20m.