30 ms·

LFPs are cheap and safe, with very good cycle counts. Sodium seems to be actually hitting real commercial production volumes (ex - GM just announced a sodium r

LFPs are cheap and safe, with very good cycle counts. Sodium seems to be actually hitting real commercial production volumes (ex - GM just announced a sodium ramp up days ago, CATL has been producing them for a while). I expect we'll see sodium mature a good bit over the next decade (right now - it's just not quite as good as LFP, but it has a lot of promise in temperature extremes and cheap input materials) So sure - storage is an issue. But it's not THE issue anymore. It costs surprisingly little to get enough LFP storage to cover an entire house at modest usage for days at a time (ex - under 10k for 42.9KWh of storage, UL approved https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-wallmount-all-weather-lithium-battery-48v-280ah-14-3kwh-lifepo4-all-weather-energy-storage-ul1973-ul9540a-10-year-warranty/ https://signaturesolar.com/eg4-wallmount-all-weather-lithium...) So yes - storage remains something to consider. But I think pretending that storage is a constraint that should stop PV rollout is... cough... bullshit cough... Let industry that needs it pull from existing generation at night, convert residential to solar as fast as possible. Subsidize residential battery rollout the same way we do for insulation and other efficiency improving home improvements (which to be clear - we were doing prior to the current admin). China isn't fucking around on the solar front, and the continued excuses in US from entrenched interests tangled up in the oil industry are criminal.

michaelbuckbee 4mo ago
I think it's your last point that's actually the strongest. There's always gaps between theoretical and practical, but to see China investing so hard in the future while the US digs in it's heels is infuriating.
- toomuchtodo 4mo ago
  China exported 68GW of solar PV in March 2026, double the prior month and 14GW more than total solar PV capacity installed in Spain. Chinese solar exports double in a month to hit record high amid energy crisis - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/chinese-solar-exports-double-in-a-month-to-hit-record-high-amid-energy-crisis/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/chinese-solar-export... - April 23rd, 2026 https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explore... https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e...
- mrtesthah 4mo ago
  >...while the US digs in it's heels is infuriating. And we shouldn't imply that this policy represents any sort of national consensus -- it's pure corruption plain and simple.
  - quantified 4mo ago
    Corruption that concentrates on one party whether that party is in or out of power, too.
  - mullingitover 4mo ago
    It's also sabotage of all domestic manufacturing. The price of energy sets a floor on the price of all manufactured goods. By kneecapping the cheapest sources of energy, the regime kneecaps all domestic manufacturers. China's aggressive buildout of cost effective energy production isn't because they're 'woke,' it's because it makes them more competitive. Every product they export at low prices is in part due to the their extremely cheap energy. It's like the regime looked at the UK's collapsing manufacturing industry due to their high energy costs and said "I want that for us!"
    - XorNot 4mo ago
      Its also just strategically sensible. China is well aware it has very long supply lines for oil, and the less of it they need the better.
oblio 4mo ago
I read some interesting things about crazy sounding technologies like vanadium flow and iron batteries. I think we're at most 10 years away from storage being not fully solved, but becoming an enabler more than a bottleneck.
- XorNot 4mo ago
  Vanadium flow batteries are more expensive and less durable then LFP and the price won't come down because Vanadium is an expensive metal to get. They were interesting but the whole concept just has problems and has for over a decade at this point despite commercialisation efforts. Same story with iron: it's out there, but the scale on LFP and likely Sodium is going to shoot right past it.
- Schiendelman 4mo ago
  What data make you think storage isn't fully solved now?
3eb7988a1663 4mo ago
I suspect sodium is better than lithium today. The win is that sodium is much more forgiving of high temperatures so they can be run without cooling fans/pumps. Lithium battery installations are actually loud owing to all of their cooling infrastructure. No cooling means the sodium batteries are easier/cheaper to maintain (no mechanical failures). Maybe not as energy dense, but you could still come out ahead long term when accounting for Capex+Opex.
- horsawlarway 4mo ago
  Seems likely. But I can't buy sodium ion today like I can LFP. The chemistry definitely seems to be better than LFP long term, but higher manufacturing costs and low scale means it's just not as available. CATL is predicting that they'll hit price parity for sodium against LFP this year, commercial scaling still needs to happen, though. Meanwhile, manufacturers can pick up prismatic LFP from all sorts of places, at great prices (ex - https://www.18650batterystore.com/collections/lifepo4-prismatic-cells/products/eve-mb31-grade-a-cells-3-2v-lifepo4-314ah-battery https://www.18650batterystore.com/collections/lifepo4-prisma...)
  - bryanlarsen 4mo ago
    You can by sodium ion batteries today. They're more expensive, but work better in the cold. https://www.bluettipower.com/products/sodium-ion-battery-pioneer-na https://www.bluettipower.com/products/sodium-ion-battery-pio...
    - horsawlarway 4mo ago
      You can't really get them in the sort of energy density you need for an ESS at any comparable price to LFP right now, so they only really make sense in really limited spots. Ex - the closest I can find is something like: https://batteryfinds.com/product/3-1v-210ah-sodium-ionna-ion-prismatic-battery-cells-4-pcs/ https://batteryfinds.com/product/3-1v-210ah-sodium-ionna-ion... but just compare against LFP: https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/eve-mb31-grade-a-cells-3-2v-lifepo4-314ah-battery https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/eve-mb31-grade-a-... So... LFP: 4.0KWh @ $275.00 Sodium: 2.6KWh @ $568.00 Right now, it's older generations of the chemistry, and you end up paying twice as much for half the power. So yeah... unless you really need the temperature extremes, it makes a lot more sense to stick with LFP. But CATL at least is claiming they have cells in the pipeline for this year that get NA+ down to comparable $/KWh as LFP, and then yes - I'd much prefer to use the newer chemistry. If sodium follows the same trend as LFP did, they'll get much cheaper at scale, and performance will go up markedly over the next 15 years. I won't be at all surprised to see them end up completely dominating the space in the long run, but we're not yet at the spot where they're better than LFP (at its most mature).
idiotsecant 4mo ago
No, storage (and transmission) are, in fact, THE issue. They always were. Solar is cheap and easy to install. Balancing a net zero grid without storage and with the pitiful transmission we have now is simply not possible. See: california. The entire CAISO is a power laundering scheme to allow california to have publicly have huge amounts of solar power that overproduces enormously (including strongly negative power prices for a good chink of day) and still import dirty base load power quietly. If storage was simple to solve, it would be solved. Chemical storage simply doesn't exist at the required scale and we don't like to build the one thing that we could, right this second - pumped storage. We are already massively overbuilding solar. We would be well serv d to stop building panels and start building pump storage and transmission lines to distribute the stuff we've already got, but nobody makes a political career announcing a new transmission line.
- toomuchtodo 4mo ago
  It is solved. Citations below. When the sun sets, batteries rise: 24/7 solar in California - https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/02/17/when-the-sun-sets-batteries-rise-24-7-solar-in-california/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/02/17/when-the-sun-sets-bat... - February 17th, 2026 Natural gas use for electricity in California falls as solar generation rises - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66704 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66704 - November 24th, 2025 California's solar and battery combo packs a transformational punch - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/californias-solar-battery-combo-packs-transformational-punch-2025-10-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/californias-sola... - October 3rd, 2025 California solar curtailment down 12% on back of batteries - https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/22/california-solar-curtailment-down-12-on-back-of-batteries/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/22/california-solar-curt... - July 22nd, 2025 ("For the first five months of 2025, CAISO data showed solar electricity curtailment declined by 12% as a share of generation, falling from 13% to 11.5%, even as solar output grew 18% year over year. During this period, however, curtailment still rose 4.1% in absolute terms, with March showing a 28% increase, matching the prior year’s peak.") Batteries Taking Charge of the California Grid - https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-batteries-apr-2024/ https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-batteries-apr-2024/ - May 6th, 2024 Batteries are scaling up faster than ever in the US, enabling record solar growth to continue and reducing fossil fuel use. - https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-rise-of-batteries-plus-solar/ https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-rise-of-batteries-plus-... > In 2024, California and Nevada led the nation in solar power, becoming the first states to surpass 30% annual solar share, with California hitting 32% and Nevada 31% – the highest shares of any state. But the transition is uneven – while some states are surging ahead, others are just beginning to see significant growth. > Batteries are essential for the rise of solar, allowing solar to meet growing demand and displacing gas and coal generation. Across the US, the growth of batteries is accelerating alongside solar, with 1 MW of storage being added for every 3 MW of solar added in 2024. California Energy Storage System Survey - https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-energy-storage-system-survey https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...

michaelbuckbee 4mo ago

I think it's your last point that's actually the strongest. There's always gaps between theoretical and practical, but to see China investing so hard in the future while the US digs in it's heels is infuriating.

toomuchtodo 4mo ago
China exported 68GW of solar PV in March 2026, double the prior month and 14GW more than total solar PV capacity installed in Spain. Chinese solar exports double in a month to hit record high amid energy crisis - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/chinese-solar-exports-double-in-a-month-to-hit-record-high-amid-energy-crisis/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/chinese-solar-export... - April 23rd, 2026 https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/chinas-solar-pv-export-explore... https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e...
mrtesthah 4mo ago
>...while the US digs in it's heels is infuriating. And we shouldn't imply that this policy represents any sort of national consensus -- it's pure corruption plain and simple.
- quantified 4mo ago
  Corruption that concentrates on one party whether that party is in or out of power, too.
- mullingitover 4mo ago
  It's also sabotage of all domestic manufacturing. The price of energy sets a floor on the price of all manufactured goods. By kneecapping the cheapest sources of energy, the regime kneecaps all domestic manufacturers. China's aggressive buildout of cost effective energy production isn't because they're 'woke,' it's because it makes them more competitive. Every product they export at low prices is in part due to the their extremely cheap energy. It's like the regime looked at the UK's collapsing manufacturing industry due to their high energy costs and said "I want that for us!"
  - XorNot 4mo ago
    Its also just strategically sensible. China is well aware it has very long supply lines for oil, and the less of it they need the better.

oblio 4mo ago

I read some interesting things about crazy sounding technologies like vanadium flow and iron batteries. I think we're at most 10 years away from storage being not fully solved, but becoming an enabler more than a bottleneck.

XorNot 4mo ago
Vanadium flow batteries are more expensive and less durable then LFP and the price won't come down because Vanadium is an expensive metal to get. They were interesting but the whole concept just has problems and has for over a decade at this point despite commercialisation efforts. Same story with iron: it's out there, but the scale on LFP and likely Sodium is going to shoot right past it.
Schiendelman 4mo ago
What data make you think storage isn't fully solved now?

3eb7988a1663 4mo ago

I suspect sodium is better than lithium today. The win is that sodium is much more forgiving of high temperatures so they can be run without cooling fans/pumps. Lithium battery installations are actually loud owing to all of their cooling infrastructure. No cooling means the sodium batteries are easier/cheaper to maintain (no mechanical failures). Maybe not as energy dense, but you could still come out ahead long term when accounting for Capex+Opex.

horsawlarway 4mo ago
Seems likely. But I can't buy sodium ion today like I can LFP. The chemistry definitely seems to be better than LFP long term, but higher manufacturing costs and low scale means it's just not as available. CATL is predicting that they'll hit price parity for sodium against LFP this year, commercial scaling still needs to happen, though. Meanwhile, manufacturers can pick up prismatic LFP from all sorts of places, at great prices (ex - https://www.18650batterystore.com/collections/lifepo4-prismatic-cells/products/eve-mb31-grade-a-cells-3-2v-lifepo4-314ah-battery https://www.18650batterystore.com/collections/lifepo4-prisma...)
- bryanlarsen 4mo ago
  You can by sodium ion batteries today. They're more expensive, but work better in the cold. https://www.bluettipower.com/products/sodium-ion-battery-pioneer-na https://www.bluettipower.com/products/sodium-ion-battery-pio...
  - horsawlarway 4mo ago
    You can't really get them in the sort of energy density you need for an ESS at any comparable price to LFP right now, so they only really make sense in really limited spots. Ex - the closest I can find is something like: https://batteryfinds.com/product/3-1v-210ah-sodium-ionna-ion-prismatic-battery-cells-4-pcs/ https://batteryfinds.com/product/3-1v-210ah-sodium-ionna-ion... but just compare against LFP: https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/eve-mb31-grade-a-cells-3-2v-lifepo4-314ah-battery https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/eve-mb31-grade-a-... So... LFP: 4.0KWh @ $275.00 Sodium: 2.6KWh @ $568.00 Right now, it's older generations of the chemistry, and you end up paying twice as much for half the power. So yeah... unless you really need the temperature extremes, it makes a lot more sense to stick with LFP. But CATL at least is claiming they have cells in the pipeline for this year that get NA+ down to comparable $/KWh as LFP, and then yes - I'd much prefer to use the newer chemistry. If sodium follows the same trend as LFP did, they'll get much cheaper at scale, and performance will go up markedly over the next 15 years. I won't be at all surprised to see them end up completely dominating the space in the long run, but we're not yet at the spot where they're better than LFP (at its most mature).

idiotsecant 4mo ago

No, storage (and transmission) are, in fact, THE issue. They always were. Solar is cheap and easy to install. Balancing a net zero grid without storage and with the pitiful transmission we have now is simply not possible. See: california. The entire CAISO is a power laundering scheme to allow california to have publicly have huge amounts of solar power that overproduces enormously (including strongly negative power prices for a good chink of day) and still import dirty base load power quietly. If storage was simple to solve, it would be solved. Chemical storage simply doesn't exist at the required scale and we don't like to build the one thing that we could, right this second - pumped storage. We are already massively overbuilding solar. We would be well serv d to stop building panels and start building pump storage and transmission lines to distribute the stuff we've already got, but nobody makes a political career announcing a new transmission line.

toomuchtodo 4mo ago
It is solved. Citations below. When the sun sets, batteries rise: 24/7 solar in California - https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/02/17/when-the-sun-sets-batteries-rise-24-7-solar-in-california/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/02/17/when-the-sun-sets-bat... - February 17th, 2026 Natural gas use for electricity in California falls as solar generation rises - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66704 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66704 - November 24th, 2025 California's solar and battery combo packs a transformational punch - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/californias-solar-battery-combo-packs-transformational-punch-2025-10-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/californias-sola... - October 3rd, 2025 California solar curtailment down 12% on back of batteries - https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/22/california-solar-curtailment-down-12-on-back-of-batteries/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/07/22/california-solar-curt... - July 22nd, 2025 ("For the first five months of 2025, CAISO data showed solar electricity curtailment declined by 12% as a share of generation, falling from 13% to 11.5%, even as solar output grew 18% year over year. During this period, however, curtailment still rose 4.1% in absolute terms, with March showing a 28% increase, matching the prior year’s peak.") Batteries Taking Charge of the California Grid - https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-batteries-apr-2024/ https://blog.gridstatus.io/caiso-batteries-apr-2024/ - May 6th, 2024 Batteries are scaling up faster than ever in the US, enabling record solar growth to continue and reducing fossil fuel use. - https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-rise-of-batteries-plus-solar/ https://ember-energy.org/chapter/the-rise-of-batteries-plus-... > In 2024, California and Nevada led the nation in solar power, becoming the first states to surpass 30% annual solar share, with California hitting 32% and Nevada 31% – the highest shares of any state. But the transition is uneven – while some states are surging ahead, others are just beginning to see significant growth. > Batteries are essential for the rise of solar, allowing solar to meet growing demand and displacing gas and coal generation. Across the US, the growth of batteries is accelerating alongside solar, with 1 MW of storage being added for every 3 MW of solar added in 2024. California Energy Storage System Survey - https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/california-energy-storage-system-survey https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...