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I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is to

by m3kw9 4mo ago

I know this sounds "bad" but early in Tesla's forcasts, I've seen many "highly unlikely" articles, but Tesla ended up blowing past expectations. This one is tough too, but I hate just dismiss it as unlikely especially with Elon at the helm

JumpinJack_Cash 4mo ago
Those things were highly unlikely because they accounted for rationality from the consumer's end as well as the political's end and of course Fed and regulators All 3 went out of the window sometimes around 2015 or so.
itsgonnabebad 4mo ago
Blown past? It was only a few years ago people were saying Tesla was going to own the entire car market, and everyone else would go out of business. The Cybertruck was going to be the best selling car of all time, the insurance business was going to be a massive money maker etc. None of these things happened.
- throwawayqqq11 4mo ago
  Elon is a true grand master to blow past shifted goal posts. If people continue to fall for it, he might have success, however you define it.
- scottyah 4mo ago
  It was only a few years ago people were saying Tesla was going to fail spectacularly, that nobody would drive an EV, that no new auto manufacturer could start in USA, that they would blow up into flames at rates way higher than ICE cars, that the CT would never be made, that they'd have to buy their batteries from suppliers that would just crank the prices up.
Eji1700 4mo ago
I think the only opinion I care about on this will be Aswath Damodaran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQKIJU7TmTc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQKIJU7TmTc I plan to stay the fuck away from it either way, but he's at least someone who's not only good at this stuff, showing their work and approaching it professionally. I haven't had time to watch the video, but I read through part of the blog post, and seems he believes 1.2T is possible,but I won't know how much I agree with that until I finish reading/watching it all. It's at, the very least, a professional presentation so it's a hell of a lot easier to see why and what he does/doesn't agree with.
TheOtherHobbes 4mo ago
Tesla spent almost years scraping by, almost went bankrupt in 2018, had three years of "exceeds expectation" from 2020 to 2023 and is now being murdered by competitors. A lot of "income" comes from selling regulatory credits, not cars. FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon. The early computer industry created a good few companies which achieved profitability quickly and posted solid YoY expansion for decades. The histories of SpaceX and Tesla show no evidence of that pattern.
- wnmurphy 4mo ago
  > FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon. I think the SpaceX IPO is way overvalued, but have you actually tried FSD v14 yourself? My car has 8-year old hardware running v12, and it handles like 90+% of my driving. When I test drove 14 it blew my mind how good it had gotten in only 8 months of development. In my opinion, there's question that it's "when," not "if."
  - veqz 4mo ago
    Yes, I hear lots of people saying Tesla's "FSD" product can drive by itself already. Yet if the car crashes while in FSD mode, it is still you who are legally the driver and you who will be responsible. You are the driver, regardless of what the name of the car's software is. This can be contrasted with e.g. Mercedes' offering, which is actually self-driving, and where Mercedes is responsible if the car crashes (The limitation in that case, of course, is the very limited roads and conditions where that software will actually be enabled.). So, yes: Until Tesla (or someone else) actually takes responsibility while the car drives itself, and the "driver" is legally just a passenger, it is not a fully self-driving car. If you ever take your attention away from the road while using FSD you are breaking the law, which says that as the driver, you must always pay attention.
    - wnmurphy 4mo ago
      > Until Tesla (or someone else) actually takes responsibility while the car drives itself Were you aware they're already doing exactly this in Austin and Dallas?
stetrain 4mo ago
Tesla's own expectation six years ago was that they would be selling 20 million cars annually by 2030: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-drops-reference-its-goal-delivering-20-mln-vehicles-annually-impact-report-2024-05-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-... Tesla's recent annual car sales: 2023: 1.81M 2024: 1.79M 2025: 1.64M Elon's failed timeline predictions about self-driving and Robotaxi fleets are too numerous to attempt to cite here. What has mostly exceeded expectations about Tesla is their stock price compared to actual productivity.
ActionHank 4mo ago
[flagged]

by m3kw9 4mo ago

JumpinJack_Cash 4mo ago

Those things were highly unlikely because they accounted for rationality from the consumer's end as well as the political's end and of course Fed and regulators All 3 went out of the window sometimes around 2015 or so.

itsgonnabebad 4mo ago

Blown past? It was only a few years ago people were saying Tesla was going to own the entire car market, and everyone else would go out of business. The Cybertruck was going to be the best selling car of all time, the insurance business was going to be a massive money maker etc. None of these things happened.

throwawayqqq11 4mo ago
Elon is a true grand master to blow past shifted goal posts. If people continue to fall for it, he might have success, however you define it.
scottyah 4mo ago
It was only a few years ago people were saying Tesla was going to fail spectacularly, that nobody would drive an EV, that no new auto manufacturer could start in USA, that they would blow up into flames at rates way higher than ICE cars, that the CT would never be made, that they'd have to buy their batteries from suppliers that would just crank the prices up.

Eji1700 4mo ago

I think the only opinion I care about on this will be Aswath Damodaran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQKIJU7TmTc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQKIJU7TmTc I plan to stay the fuck away from it either way, but he's at least someone who's not only good at this stuff, showing their work and approaching it professionally. I haven't had time to watch the video, but I read through part of the blog post, and seems he believes 1.2T is possible,but I won't know how much I agree with that until I finish reading/watching it all. It's at, the very least, a professional presentation so it's a hell of a lot easier to see why and what he does/doesn't agree with.

TheOtherHobbes 4mo ago

Tesla spent almost years scraping by, almost went bankrupt in 2018, had three years of "exceeds expectation" from 2020 to 2023 and is now being murdered by competitors. A lot of "income" comes from selling regulatory credits, not cars. FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon. The early computer industry created a good few companies which achieved profitability quickly and posted solid YoY expansion for decades. The histories of SpaceX and Tesla show no evidence of that pattern.

wnmurphy 4mo ago
> FSD is up to v14 and there is no sense in which it's "Full", or is likely to be "Full" any time soon. I think the SpaceX IPO is way overvalued, but have you actually tried FSD v14 yourself? My car has 8-year old hardware running v12, and it handles like 90+% of my driving. When I test drove 14 it blew my mind how good it had gotten in only 8 months of development. In my opinion, there's question that it's "when," not "if."
- veqz 4mo ago
  Yes, I hear lots of people saying Tesla's "FSD" product can drive by itself already. Yet if the car crashes while in FSD mode, it is still you who are legally the driver and you who will be responsible. You are the driver, regardless of what the name of the car's software is. This can be contrasted with e.g. Mercedes' offering, which is actually self-driving, and where Mercedes is responsible if the car crashes (The limitation in that case, of course, is the very limited roads and conditions where that software will actually be enabled.). So, yes: Until Tesla (or someone else) actually takes responsibility while the car drives itself, and the "driver" is legally just a passenger, it is not a fully self-driving car. If you ever take your attention away from the road while using FSD you are breaking the law, which says that as the driver, you must always pay attention.
  - wnmurphy 4mo ago
    > Until Tesla (or someone else) actually takes responsibility while the car drives itself Were you aware they're already doing exactly this in Austin and Dallas?

stetrain 4mo ago

Tesla's own expectation six years ago was that they would be selling 20 million cars annually by 2030: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-drops-reference-its-goal-delivering-20-mln-vehicles-annually-impact-report-2024-05-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-... Tesla's recent annual car sales: 2023: 1.81M 2024: 1.79M 2025: 1.64M Elon's failed timeline predictions about self-driving and Robotaxi fleets are too numerous to attempt to cite here. What has mostly exceeded expectations about Tesla is their stock price compared to actual productivity.

ActionHank 4mo ago

[flagged]