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China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-explor

China launched a direct competitor on June 2nd "China launches debut mission of Falcon 9-like rocket with no advance notice" https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/china-launches-debut-mission-of-falcon-9-like-rocket-with-no-advance-notice-video https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/... Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce

re-thc 4mo ago
> Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce According to their brief, most of the revenue is going to come from AI! The rockets are apparently just "minor" now.
- ActionHank 4mo ago
  That must be a mistake, revenue isn't the word for the money you're going to throw in the furnace.
bilbo0s 4mo ago
Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming. But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.
- scottyah 4mo ago
  We've seen through Tesla that software, government regulation, and to a smaller degree build quality are the only moats against China that still currently hold.
  - CursedSilicon 4mo ago
    Tesla build quality? Early Chinese EV's were a joke, but Tesla's aren't exactly built reliably either Once you learn how to spot their misaligned panels it becomes impossible not to
    - scottyah 4mo ago
      I've owned older USA made cars so a little panel alignment doesn't bug me. I like the lack of beer bottles stashed in the doors, missing screws, welds from the obviously inebriated, etc.
Isamu 4mo ago
China has multiple reusable rocket programs, the reuse will become key to driving down costs.
- downrightmike 4mo ago
  yeah, and it will slice $T off of spacex easily
logancbrown 4mo ago
This comment is very clearly an exaggeration even if there is a grain of truth to it. You should consider addressing the fact that there can be multiple "leaders" at any given time, and geopolitical boundaries can shape those leaders.
guywithahat 4mo ago
It's possible SpaceX will get "rekt", but the US has decades of experience and manufacturing processes set up for aerospace, as well as established customers. As long as SpaceX doesn't become heavily unionized I suspect they'll be able to compete strongly with anything China develops.
raincole 4mo ago
Perhaps at least wait until Long March proves to be recyclable/reuseable before you call it a direct competitor.
axus 4mo ago
Who's going to buy launch services from CASC besides Chinese companies? Serious question, I don't have an answer in mind.

re-thc 4mo ago

> Spacex is going to get rekt, China has all the materials and workforce According to their brief, most of the revenue is going to come from AI! The rockets are apparently just "minor" now.

ActionHank 4mo ago
That must be a mistake, revenue isn't the word for the money you're going to throw in the furnace.

bilbo0s 4mo ago

Well, SpaceX is supposed to be more about AI than low cost orbital launches. At least that’s what their roadshow is claiming. But either way, yeah, I’m not willing to bet much money on USD4.3T unless we can get some serious financial engineering, (read “circular deals”), going.

scottyah 4mo ago
We've seen through Tesla that software, government regulation, and to a smaller degree build quality are the only moats against China that still currently hold.
- CursedSilicon 4mo ago
  Tesla build quality? Early Chinese EV's were a joke, but Tesla's aren't exactly built reliably either Once you learn how to spot their misaligned panels it becomes impossible not to
  - scottyah 4mo ago
    I've owned older USA made cars so a little panel alignment doesn't bug me. I like the lack of beer bottles stashed in the doors, missing screws, welds from the obviously inebriated, etc.

Isamu 4mo ago

China has multiple reusable rocket programs, the reuse will become key to driving down costs.

downrightmike 4mo ago
yeah, and it will slice $T off of spacex easily

logancbrown 4mo ago

This comment is very clearly an exaggeration even if there is a grain of truth to it. You should consider addressing the fact that there can be multiple "leaders" at any given time, and geopolitical boundaries can shape those leaders.

guywithahat 4mo ago

It's possible SpaceX will get "rekt", but the US has decades of experience and manufacturing processes set up for aerospace, as well as established customers. As long as SpaceX doesn't become heavily unionized I suspect they'll be able to compete strongly with anything China develops.

raincole 4mo ago

Perhaps at least wait until Long March proves to be recyclable/reuseable before you call it a direct competitor.

axus 4mo ago

Who's going to buy launch services from CASC besides Chinese companies? Serious question, I don't have an answer in mind.