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There have been 366 murders so far this year in New York City, compared with 472 at this time last year. As an ex-resident of NYC, while I applaud the fact tha

There have been 366 murders so far this year in New York City, compared with 472 at this time last year. As an ex-resident of NYC, while I applaud the fact that violent crime is at its lowest point in 50 years, I still think 366 murders per year (with a month to go) is appalling, big city or not. I'm not sure if murders are equally distributed across boroughs, but assuming they are, 366/5 = ~73 murders per year per borough, or a murder per borough every five days. The goal should be zero, and we shouldn't rest until it's the norm. An improvement in statistics is great, but I don't exactly see it as a cause for celebration.

dagw 14y ago
The goal should be zero, and we shouldn't rest until it's the norm. Wouldn't that lead to a War on Drugs style situation? You'll basically end up throwing more and more resources and taking away more and more freedoms chasing smaller and smaller marginal returns. Instead pick a realistic target that will make you look good compared to other cities in the world, say 2 pr. 100000 population or about 160 murders, and work towards that.
pistoriusp 14y ago
This sounds like a dream world to me because we rack up that many murders in a week in South Africa. So whilst it might no be impressive from your perspective I think it's amazing.
gecko 14y ago
I hate to just bust out some stats here, but: The average murder rate in the US is roughly 5.0 per 100,000 and falling [1]. NYC's population fluctuates between its 8.2 million residents in the evenings and closer to 10.5 million people during the day (due to commuters), but let's go with a conservative 8.5M for this calculation. In that case, we should expect 425 murders in a city this size. At 366 murders in 2012 by the end of November, we're on track to beating that average. Murders are horrible, and I don't want to in any way say that a nonzero murder rate is good, but I actually do think that NYC's massive decrease in homicide over the last two decades is a cause for celebration. I didn't live here in the late 90s, but I have friends who did who would never have set foot in large swaths of Manhattan because they were simply too unsafe. These same people will happily go to a house party in Bed Stuy. Are we done? No. Is this cause to celebrate? I think so. Celebrating major milestones on the road to improvement is normal and healthy. The only trick is not to conflate that celebration with you being "done." I don't think we're doing that. [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

dagw 14y ago

The goal should be zero, and we shouldn't rest until it's the norm. Wouldn't that lead to a War on Drugs style situation? You'll basically end up throwing more and more resources and taking away more and more freedoms chasing smaller and smaller marginal returns. Instead pick a realistic target that will make you look good compared to other cities in the world, say 2 pr. 100000 population or about 160 murders, and work towards that.

pistoriusp 14y ago

This sounds like a dream world to me because we rack up that many murders in a week in South Africa. So whilst it might no be impressive from your perspective I think it's amazing.

gecko 14y ago

I hate to just bust out some stats here, but: The average murder rate in the US is roughly 5.0 per 100,000 and falling [1]. NYC's population fluctuates between its 8.2 million residents in the evenings and closer to 10.5 million people during the day (due to commuters), but let's go with a conservative 8.5M for this calculation. In that case, we should expect 425 murders in a city this size. At 366 murders in 2012 by the end of November, we're on track to beating that average. Murders are horrible, and I don't want to in any way say that a nonzero murder rate is good, but I actually do think that NYC's massive decrease in homicide over the last two decades is a cause for celebration. I didn't live here in the late 90s, but I have friends who did who would never have set foot in large swaths of Manhattan because they were simply too unsafe. These same people will happily go to a house party in Bed Stuy. Are we done? No. Is this cause to celebrate? I think so. Celebrating major milestones on the road to improvement is normal and healthy. The only trick is not to conflate that celebration with you being "done." I don't think we're doing that. [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States