That's a pretty fair description and I hate to disagree with it but I have to, a little. ;) Yes, they need a credible threat, but the threat is merely that the

That's a pretty fair description and I hate to disagree with it but I have to, a little. ;) Yes, they need a credible threat, but the threat is merely that they'll continue with this policy a little past the inflection point instead of right up to it. And, at least to me, the inflection point doesn't seem all that far off. I think 8 years is a better upper bound than a lower one.