4 ms·

now for the best question: whats your ROI here?

by cyanydeez 5mo ago

PunchyHamster 5mo ago
It will be great when the price of compute/memory drops to normal level!
- cyanydeez 5mo ago
  >Sam Altman has signed another Memoranda of Understanding: Buying all SDRAM till the heat death of the universe OR Musk relocates to mars.
Qhemlomo 5mo ago
It just got released, it shouldn't matter. We know this model will be cheaper and faster with time. And we have not even reached the timespan/timeframe were we have ASIC style models. OpenAI has to do something which will beat Fable otherwise Anthropic won. China currently overtakes cars, pv, batteries and very soon silicon chip making, it has all the incentive to also take over AI.
- camillomiller 5mo ago
  [flagged]
  - Qhemlomo 5mo ago
    I'm happy to discuss arguments if you want to add any?
    - Our_Benefactors 5mo ago
      The only thing they’ve overtaken is arguably batteries, and even that is questionable if the quality is as good as Korean manufacturers. I think it’s more likely that the Chinese chip industry overtaking competitors will remain like nuclear fusion, forever “just 5 years away”
      - zelphirkalt 5mo ago
        They mostly have overtaken in cars too. Their EVs are just cheaper, and they have built the infrastructure around it, even in more rural provinces. Building infrastructure is something they excel at anyway.
      - Qhemlomo 5mo ago
        The best batteries are currently from CATL. No one in the industry is doubting this. Huawei just showed LogicFolding and have a roadmap for 1.4 nanometer by 2031; SMIC is going for 5nm. And all of this WITHOUT EUV.
    - throw939494555 5mo ago
      Not OP, but for me, this model will get VERY expensive in 2 weeks. Now it is part of Pro plan, after 22nd it will get excluded and I will pay by token API usage (~10x more expensive). I find it good for code reviews.
      - Qhemlomo 5mo ago
        Yeah my time scale is 'a handful of years' :)
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > We know this model will be cheaper and faster with time Why? Demand for AI compute seems to be increasing faster than new production is due to come online for the foreseeable future, particularly if more-intensive models induce demand.
  - slibhb 5mo ago
    The cost for a fixed level of intelligence will fall over time. We've already seen this. But the cost of cutting edge models will probably not fall anytime soon, and may increase. So I would expect Fable-level intelligence to get cheaper.
Ferret7446 5mo ago
Humans are very expensive, so the equation almost always falls against them. It's not just salary, but also safety/labor regulation, legal risk, vacations, sick time, personal conflicts, HR, benefits. Even when automation is more expensive on paper, it's generally still cheaper
- warkdarrior 5mo ago
  That's the beauty of these AI advancements. You, a human, will have to compete against a model for the same job. If you get $100,000 per year as a SWE, and Anthropic offers a coding model for $100,000 per year (but working 24/7), then you'll have to give up all of those addons that make the fully burdened cost of the employee. Say goodbye to vacation, sick time, benefits, etc.
  - rspeele 5mo ago
    > "What have you got against machines?" said Buck. > "They're slaves." > "Well, what the heck," said Buck. "I mean, they aren't people. They don't suffer. They don't mind working." > "No. But they compete with people." > "That's a pretty good thing, isn't it--considering what a sloppy job most people do of anything?" > "Anybody that competes with slaves becomes a slave," said Harrison thickly, and he left. Kurt Vonnegut, Player Piano
  - dyauspitr 5mo ago
    They will do it for far less. Once manufacturing catches up and they have the data centers built out tokens are going to be dirt cheap.
- TheOtherHobbes 5mo ago
  Good to know that LLMs will be removing all regulatory and legal risks, as well as creating a consumer economy that no longer employs or pays consumers. I can't help thinking there might be some kind of strategic issue here. Perhaps someone should ask Mythos about it.
  - Ferret7446 5mo ago
deleted 5mo ago
[deleted]
crystal_revenge 5mo ago
The parent comment is describing a test they ran so they could assess their trust in the model for scenarios they don't have time to fully understand. Do you not believe in running tests, evaluations, or experiments at all to better understand your environment? The ROI in the case of a positive outcome is the reduced time needed to inspect the results in the future (the entire point of AI is to know what you can trust it on, so you can delegate everything at that level with less oversight). The ROI in the negative case is the tokens not wasted on tasks to ambitious for the model.

now for the best question: whats your ROI here?

PunchyHamster 5mo ago

It will be great when the price of compute/memory drops to normal level!

cyanydeez 5mo ago
>Sam Altman has signed another Memoranda of Understanding: Buying all SDRAM till the heat death of the universe OR Musk relocates to mars.

Qhemlomo 5mo ago

It just got released, it shouldn't matter. We know this model will be cheaper and faster with time. And we have not even reached the timespan/timeframe were we have ASIC style models. OpenAI has to do something which will beat Fable otherwise Anthropic won. China currently overtakes cars, pv, batteries and very soon silicon chip making, it has all the incentive to also take over AI.

camillomiller 5mo ago
[flagged]
- Qhemlomo 5mo ago
  I'm happy to discuss arguments if you want to add any?
  - Our_Benefactors 5mo ago
    The only thing they’ve overtaken is arguably batteries, and even that is questionable if the quality is as good as Korean manufacturers. I think it’s more likely that the Chinese chip industry overtaking competitors will remain like nuclear fusion, forever “just 5 years away”
    - zelphirkalt 5mo ago
      They mostly have overtaken in cars too. Their EVs are just cheaper, and they have built the infrastructure around it, even in more rural provinces. Building infrastructure is something they excel at anyway.
    - Qhemlomo 5mo ago
      The best batteries are currently from CATL. No one in the industry is doubting this. Huawei just showed LogicFolding and have a roadmap for 1.4 nanometer by 2031; SMIC is going for 5nm. And all of this WITHOUT EUV.
  - throw939494555 5mo ago
    Not OP, but for me, this model will get VERY expensive in 2 weeks. Now it is part of Pro plan, after 22nd it will get excluded and I will pay by token API usage (~10x more expensive). I find it good for code reviews.
    - Qhemlomo 5mo ago
      Yeah my time scale is 'a handful of years' :)
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> We know this model will be cheaper and faster with time Why? Demand for AI compute seems to be increasing faster than new production is due to come online for the foreseeable future, particularly if more-intensive models induce demand.
- slibhb 5mo ago
  The cost for a fixed level of intelligence will fall over time. We've already seen this. But the cost of cutting edge models will probably not fall anytime soon, and may increase. So I would expect Fable-level intelligence to get cheaper.

Ferret7446 5mo ago

Humans are very expensive, so the equation almost always falls against them. It's not just salary, but also safety/labor regulation, legal risk, vacations, sick time, personal conflicts, HR, benefits. Even when automation is more expensive on paper, it's generally still cheaper

warkdarrior 5mo ago
That's the beauty of these AI advancements. You, a human, will have to compete against a model for the same job. If you get $100,000 per year as a SWE, and Anthropic offers a coding model for $100,000 per year (but working 24/7), then you'll have to give up all of those addons that make the fully burdened cost of the employee. Say goodbye to vacation, sick time, benefits, etc.
- rspeele 5mo ago
  > "What have you got against machines?" said Buck. > "They're slaves." > "Well, what the heck," said Buck. "I mean, they aren't people. They don't suffer. They don't mind working." > "No. But they compete with people." > "That's a pretty good thing, isn't it--considering what a sloppy job most people do of anything?" > "Anybody that competes with slaves becomes a slave," said Harrison thickly, and he left. Kurt Vonnegut, Player Piano
- dyauspitr 5mo ago
  They will do it for far less. Once manufacturing catches up and they have the data centers built out tokens are going to be dirt cheap.
TheOtherHobbes 5mo ago
Good to know that LLMs will be removing all regulatory and legal risks, as well as creating a consumer economy that no longer employs or pays consumers. I can't help thinking there might be some kind of strategic issue here. Perhaps someone should ask Mythos about it.
- Ferret7446 5mo ago

deleted 5mo ago

[deleted]

crystal_revenge 5mo ago

The parent comment is describing a test they ran so they could assess their trust in the model for scenarios they don't have time to fully understand. Do you not believe in running tests, evaluations, or experiments at all to better understand your environment? The ROI in the case of a positive outcome is the reduced time needed to inspect the results in the future (the entire point of AI is to know what you can trust it on, so you can delegate everything at that level with less oversight). The ROI in the negative case is the tokens not wasted on tasks to ambitious for the model.