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> There seems to be a desire for a narrative that AI really just can't replace productive work, and that it's all a mirage. Yes, and juniors aren't known for t

> There seems to be a desire for a narrative that AI really just can't replace productive work, and that it's all a mirage. Yes, and juniors aren't known for their productive work in the beginning. That's not their purpose. Their purpose is to do the mundane work, because it is important for them to become less junior and more senior. That is robbed of them. Which in 5-10 years means the need for senior developers is gonna shoot through the roof.

atleastoptimal 4mo ago
people keep saying that assuming that in 5-10 years AI won’t be as good as senior engineers
- sublinear 4mo ago
  What makes you think that? AI isn't as good as any human in any field. Why would it be capable of replacing anyone at all in 10 years?
  - gruez 4mo ago
    >What makes you think that? AI isn't as good as any human in any field. Not even chess-playing? More applicable to jobs though, they're arguably better than some juniors.
  - _aavaa_ 4mo ago
    What are you talking about? AI is currently better at the things it can do than the average random person on the streets.
  - t-3 4mo ago
    5 years ago AI was a joke, today it is a major industry tool.
- JeremyNT 4mo ago
  What hubris on HN, to downvote this very reasonable comment. A year ago I had no use for any LLM-driven tools, and today I can do my entire job without writing a single line of code. If that happened in a year, what can we expect in 5? I have no idea what my job might even look like by then.
- OptionOfT 4mo ago
  If that is the case there is a worldwide crisis. It means that nearly all knowledge work will be gone.
deadbabe 4mo ago
The need for seniors isn’t going to “shoot through the roof” if they are using AI. If senior engineers are even 2x more productive with AI, then it’s like there are 2x as many senior engineers. Most likely, seniors will be 10x more productive in 5 years using AI. This outpaces the retirement rate. All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce. Only way juniors can rise to the level of seniors will be through independent projects, long unpaid internships/apprenticeships, etc. The industry will now have heavy gatekeeping built in.
- dragandj 4mo ago
  ... and by the year 50, they will be a trillion times more productive?
- rurp 4mo ago
  > All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce. There's no way of knowing what the industry will look like decades from now. Even assuming the prediction that seniors become 10x more productive, that would mean software becomes much cheaper to produce. Does that induce enough demand for additional software that keeps employment levels high? Could be, who knows. Alternatively, maybe software hits a saturation point where there just isn't as much new ground to cover and employment levels crater. That could happen too.
  - deadbabe 4mo ago
    Ok so even less demand for software engineers? All the software engineers that the industry will ever need again have already been created?
mohamedkoubaa 4mo ago
Exactly. Now most new hires are apprentices, before they might have been hired to do chores

atleastoptimal 4mo ago

people keep saying that assuming that in 5-10 years AI won’t be as good as senior engineers

sublinear 4mo ago
What makes you think that? AI isn't as good as any human in any field. Why would it be capable of replacing anyone at all in 10 years?
- gruez 4mo ago
  >What makes you think that? AI isn't as good as any human in any field. Not even chess-playing? More applicable to jobs though, they're arguably better than some juniors.
- _aavaa_ 4mo ago
  What are you talking about? AI is currently better at the things it can do than the average random person on the streets.
- t-3 4mo ago
  5 years ago AI was a joke, today it is a major industry tool.
JeremyNT 4mo ago
What hubris on HN, to downvote this very reasonable comment. A year ago I had no use for any LLM-driven tools, and today I can do my entire job without writing a single line of code. If that happened in a year, what can we expect in 5? I have no idea what my job might even look like by then.
OptionOfT 4mo ago
If that is the case there is a worldwide crisis. It means that nearly all knowledge work will be gone.

deadbabe 4mo ago

The need for seniors isn’t going to “shoot through the roof” if they are using AI. If senior engineers are even 2x more productive with AI, then it’s like there are 2x as many senior engineers. Most likely, seniors will be 10x more productive in 5 years using AI. This outpaces the retirement rate. All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce. Only way juniors can rise to the level of seniors will be through independent projects, long unpaid internships/apprenticeships, etc. The industry will now have heavy gatekeeping built in.

dragandj 4mo ago
... and by the year 50, they will be a trillion times more productive?
rurp 4mo ago
> All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce. There's no way of knowing what the industry will look like decades from now. Even assuming the prediction that seniors become 10x more productive, that would mean software becomes much cheaper to produce. Does that induce enough demand for additional software that keeps employment levels high? Could be, who knows. Alternatively, maybe software hits a saturation point where there just isn't as much new ground to cover and employment levels crater. That could happen too.
- deadbabe 4mo ago
  Ok so even less demand for software engineers? All the software engineers that the industry will ever need again have already been created?

mohamedkoubaa 4mo ago

Exactly. Now most new hires are apprentices, before they might have been hired to do chores