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Not convinced. That is a very static view. You would think that the output of AI will be better AI, better energy sources and that will make AI way cheaper in t

by aatd86 4mo ago

Not convinced. That is a very static view. You would think that the output of AI will be better AI, better energy sources and that will make AI way cheaper in the long run... It will end up a cheap commodity that is basically free to produce. Over the long run it is absolutely one of the best investments in projections.

bwestergard 4mo ago
"It will end up a cheap commodity that is basically free to produce." Wouldn't this just mean that hardware manufacturers capture the profits, not hyperscalers?
- RetroTechie 4mo ago
  Probably. Selling gear to shovel gpus into datacenters is gonna be profitable for a while, no matter how this pans out.
vablings 4mo ago
The idea that a GPU being useful for 3 years is insane. There is little to no data to support that
u1hcw9nx 4mo ago
Classic story tellers vs people who can quantify. Story tellers: Full self driving was commonplace already in 2020.
- aatd86 4mo ago
  No one claimed that. Besides negativity is a self-fulfilling prediction. And investing is not accounting...
  - Tryk 4mo ago
    "I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year,” Musk said. “Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark.” -Elon Musk (2019) https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/elon-musk-tesla-will-have-all-its-self-driving-car-features-by-the-end-of-the-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/elon-musk-tesla-will-have-al... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...
    - aatd86 4mo ago
      That is not my claim. And to be fair the claim about fsd wasn't completely wrong. It is still has failure modes but you can't argue that the tech works. Mercedes even had demos. That is still irrelevant to my initial point.

by aatd86 4mo ago

bwestergard 4mo ago

"It will end up a cheap commodity that is basically free to produce." Wouldn't this just mean that hardware manufacturers capture the profits, not hyperscalers?

RetroTechie 4mo ago
Probably. Selling gear to shovel gpus into datacenters is gonna be profitable for a while, no matter how this pans out.

vablings 4mo ago

The idea that a GPU being useful for 3 years is insane. There is little to no data to support that

u1hcw9nx 4mo ago

Classic story tellers vs people who can quantify. Story tellers: Full self driving was commonplace already in 2020.

aatd86 4mo ago
No one claimed that. Besides negativity is a self-fulfilling prediction. And investing is not accounting...
- Tryk 4mo ago
  "I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year,” Musk said. “Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark.” -Elon Musk (2019) https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/elon-musk-tesla-will-have-all-its-self-driving-car-features-by-the-end-of-the-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/elon-musk-tesla-will-have-al... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...
  - aatd86 4mo ago
    That is not my claim. And to be fair the claim about fsd wasn't completely wrong. It is still has failure modes but you can't argue that the tech works. Mercedes even had demos. That is still irrelevant to my initial point.