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Every model release is just proof that AGI will most likely only be for the rich. We are a few years into LLMs and majority of people are already getting priced
by impulser_ 4mo ago
Every model release is just proof that AGI will most likely only be for the rich. We are a few years into LLMs and majority of people are already getting priced out of intelligence from LLMs and these are no where near AGI.
- hootz 4mo agoYou are only priced out if you only care for SOTA right now and can't wait for the inevitable cheap model coming in 6 months. DeepSeek, Xiaomi and Moonshot are already really cheap and match frontier performance from 6 months ago.
- dyauspitr 4mo agoBut they’re artificially cheap. When will they be cheap while the company makes a profit.
- hootz 4mo agoThey are not artificially cheap, they are still cheap even when hosted by independent inference providers. Are all providers subsidizing their open-weight models?
- modeless 4mo agoNobody's making profits right now, not because they're selling tokens for less than their cost but because they're always investing in the next bigger model.
- modeless 4mo agoThis is like looking at mainframe pricing in 1990 and concluding that PCs will only be for the rich. The price of each new level of capability is going to drop like crazy very quickly. It won't be that long before practically any consumer use case will be possible on models that are dirt cheap.
- weakfish 4mo agoThis premise is based around the assumption that Moore's law is still working, which it very much isn't [0] [0] https://cap.csail.mit.edu/death-moores-law-what-it-means-and-what-might-fill-gap-going-forward https://cap.csail.mit.edu/death-moores-law-what-it-means-and...
- andrewmunsell 4mo agoImprovements in model performance aren't always strictly compute-constrained in a way that makes them reliant on Moore's Law. Open weight models-- in particular, from Chinese labs-- are optimizing model intelligence with less compute. They're "behind" frontier models by months, but as others have noted, it's possible to get Sonnet 4.5+ level performance at reduced cost, today, from open weight labs.
- modeless 4mo agoNo, I'm not assuming Moore's law. The efficiency of AI datacenters will continue to improve even without Moore's law, but more importantly the efficiency of packing intelligence into gigabytes and FLOPS will improve by leaps and bounds over the coming years, just as it has for the past few years if not faster.
- calf 4mo agoThen you're assuming an efficiency that is analogous to how Moore's law made it efficient for chips. Same difference. The problem is that AI scaling in the longest term is a completely unknown problem.
- modeless 4mo agoTraining improvements and Moore's Law are "analogous" but not "same difference." They are far from the same thing, governed by completely different factors, and one can happen and has been happening independently from the other.
- 4mo ago
- dyauspitr 4mo agoHardware manufacturing hasn’t caught up yet. Once it does, especially in China these token prices are going to drop hard.