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> He wrote this in 2024 before reasoning models came out. Remember how ChatGPT was in 2024? Do you think this person is someone who gets predictions right? Any
by abroszka33 4mo ago
> He wrote this in 2024 before reasoning models came out. Remember how ChatGPT was in 2024? Do you think this person is someone who gets predictions right?
Any benchmark on AI shows that it gets better linearly. So his prediction was correct. There is no exponential AI improvement anywhere.
- simianwords 4mo ago>Any benchmark on AI shows that it gets better linearly. So his prediction was correct. There is no exponential AI improvement anywhere. ?? https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...
- abroszka33 4mo agoOk, I guess there are some weird benchmarks where they managed to squeeze out an exponential. But even with Google's, OpenAI's or Anthropic's own benchmark it's a linear improvement between models.