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> You have * zero * reason to believe inference is costly other than just vibes. If you go by data and intuitions - the margins are high. 1. What data? 2. Int
by oblio 5mo ago
> You have * zero * reason to believe inference is costly other than just vibes. If you go by data and intuitions - the margins are high.
1. What data?
2. Intuitions = vibes.
Vibes are bad when used against you, but good when used in your favor.
Come on :-)))
- simianwords 5mo agoI have the data here and intuition https://simianwords.bearblog.dev/conclusive-proofs-that-llm-costs-are-going-down https://simianwords.bearblog.dev/conclusive-proofs-that-llm-... But if you don't believe me, lets have a bet based on what the IPO filings show?
- emil-lp 5mo agoRemember that OpenAI is subsidized from here to the highway. A better way to model this, since you seem interested is the following: How much would it cost you to start such a service for, say, 10k users? Any other internet service has had virtually Zero cost, $0. Google, Facebook, youtube, Wikipedia, you name it. They all went into the dumpster to pick up a thrown away desktop computer, and they could serve up towards 100k if not a million users. How much would it cost you to serve, say, 10k simultaneous users with a SOTA model? And if you wanted to go cash positive after a year, how much would each user have to pay?
- simianwords 5mo ago> How much would it cost you to serve, say, 10k simultaneous users with a SOTA model? And if you wanted to go cash positive after a year, how much would each user have to pay? My post has this same argument - we have multiple third party companies running open weight models. They are obviously not subsidised. And people are willing to pay for it. And these models are as good as the SOTA models from last year. So this kinda proves my point that SOTA is sustainable.
- emil-lp 5mo agoI didn't find the answer there, that's why I asked. What hardware is needed, how much of it, cooling, and what does it all cost you? Or are you saying I can take my old desktop and serve Deepseek v3.2 to 10k users simultaneously and it would cost me about $1 per megatoken?
- simianwords 5mo agoI'm simply saying this: there are third party hosters of Open Weight models like deepseek and they have been doing this for a while. Obviously they are not subsidised, do you disagree? If you agree, they have a way to price it at a point that people wanna pay for it and also they aren't losing money. So there's nothing inherent about inference that makes it too costly or whatever.
- oblio 5mo ago> I'm simply saying this: there are third party hosters of Open Weight models like deepseek and they have been doing this for a while. > Obviously they are not subsidised, do you disagree? If you agree, they have a way to price it at a point that people wanna pay for it and also they aren't losing money. > So there's nothing inherent about inference that makes it too costly or whatever. Do we have audited GAAP financial data for any of these companies? If we don't, all these are... vibes, man.
- simianwords 5mo agoGood questions. The post you are replying to is also based on vibes. So how about we make a bet and come back after IPO filings? But isn't it okay to suggest that random 3rd party hosting companies are ... not losing money? Why?
- oblio 5mo agoI'll bet 50€ that big AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) have bad regarding their core financials. Excluding one time deals such as renting hardware, external cash infusions, the core AI model business (training models and selling inference) is unprofitable and will be be at the expected scales (50 billion € or more) for the next 5 years at least. I bet that within 5 years they will be sold for scrap to bigger companies and will become divisions inside them.