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It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. Their businesses aren't ready for that

It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. Their businesses aren't ready for that kind of quarter-by-quarter grinding scrutiny. It is going to be bad when their lockup periods end.

ifwinterco 4mo ago
Bubble has to burst at some point, so IPO now and at least get some exit liquidity. If you wait too long you’ll never be able to exit at all. I think that’s the thought process and why they’re in such a rush. In fact all three are in a sort of race, you probably don’t want to be the last one to IPO
- downrightmike 4mo ago
  The bubble burst when they bought all the ram wafers to stifle global and local competition. They can't compete and the real costs are insane. Scale won't solve it even if they pave the continent.
joxdosba 4mo ago
Like the TSLA bubble has burst?
lelanthran 4mo ago
> It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. They don't really have a choice - there is a finite amount of money in the open market, and the first one to IPO is going to get the lion's share of that money.
lljk_kennedy 4mo ago
Reality left the building a long time ago. I think a lot of world models of how things "should" go are severely outdated.
Brybry 4mo ago
The SEC has a proposed rule in public comment period right now that will change quarterly reporting to semiannual reporting. [1] https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-42-sec-proposes-amendments-permit-optional-semiannual-reporting-public-companies https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-42-sec-prop... [2] https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2026/05/s7-2026-15 https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2026/05/s7-2026-15 [3] https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/33-11414.pdf https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/33-11414.pdf

ifwinterco 4mo ago

Bubble has to burst at some point, so IPO now and at least get some exit liquidity. If you wait too long you’ll never be able to exit at all. I think that’s the thought process and why they’re in such a rush. In fact all three are in a sort of race, you probably don’t want to be the last one to IPO

downrightmike 4mo ago
The bubble burst when they bought all the ram wafers to stifle global and local competition. They can't compete and the real costs are insane. Scale won't solve it even if they pave the continent.

joxdosba 4mo ago

Like the TSLA bubble has burst?

lelanthran 4mo ago

> It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. They don't really have a choice - there is a finite amount of money in the open market, and the first one to IPO is going to get the lion's share of that money.

lljk_kennedy 4mo ago

Reality left the building a long time ago. I think a lot of world models of how things "should" go are severely outdated.

Brybry 4mo ago

The SEC has a proposed rule in public comment period right now that will change quarterly reporting to semiannual reporting. [1] https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-42-sec-proposes-amendments-permit-optional-semiannual-reporting-public-companies https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-42-sec-prop... [2] https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2026/05/s7-2026-15 https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2026/05/s7-2026-15 [3] https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/33-11414.pdf https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/33-11414.pdf