In the spirit of fair play, I'll accept that both positions were literally not true. Still, there is a thesis/antithesis/sythethis that is worth spelling out fo

In the spirit of fair play, I'll accept that both positions were literally not true. Still, there is a thesis/antithesis/sythethis that is worth spelling out for HN'ers folowing along. Infinite QE = False Determinant QE = False _________ Open-ended QE =~ True Wait, wat, why? The reason: The only way the Fed gets to where it wants is with (at a minimum) a credible threat of perpetual QE. The fed is trying to play the house at a casino. It does not want a high-roller doubling down all-in on Black at infinite repitition. That game goes to whoever lasts the longest at the table. The threat of perpetual QE needs to be credible to keep this type of speculation off the table. Only when it is clear that this has gone (ie, such bets are irrational on fundamentals) will it change its position. So, in that sense, we should expect to see a reversion in policy that will make QE finite. But that is different than saying that bets should be placed in as if we were in an environment of (tractably) finite QE (that would be bad advice--per above). So to get to the state-space where your notion is true, you have to go through the state-space where the notion you dis-agree with is true. But these are sequential, and the time that you are correct is iff and after the time that the other notion is correct first. And we are in that latter state-space now. So housing prices are being supported by QE; QE is open-ended for the forseable future; At some stage this will revert but the half-life on a 30 year mortage is 15 yrs and we will have at least 8 years of QE so at least some (half or likely more) of the value of the housing market is (arguably but) correctely attributed to QE. I think this is a fair/useful elucidation, but YMMV.