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> couple people at OpenAI and Anthropic that are very clearly selling everything they can as soon as they can If you are serious about this for Anthropic pleas
by JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> couple people at OpenAI and Anthropic that are very clearly selling everything they can as soon as they can
If you are serious about this for Anthropic please drop me a line. (Not OpenAI.)
> never before had we 3 mega IPOs happening at almost the exact same time
Uber (May 2019), Airbnb (December 2020) and WeWork (scheduled 2019, SPAC 2021) were pretty closely bunched. And they were big for their time. Keep in mind that the money supply has expanded since then.
> Most IPOs end up negative after the first few quarters
Source?
- siren2026 5mo ago> Source? There is an actual ETF tracking IPOs: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPO/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPO/
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago> There is an actual ETF tracking IPOs Renaissance's IPO index seeks to "capture the essence of IPO activity and performance of newly public companies" [1]. It does not replicate an actual IPO investor's returns. For example, it adds new issues approximately quarterly and never earlier than 5 days from IPO. This is important since it misses the pop. Mean (median) first-day returns on IPOs are 20% (7%) [2]. The average 3-year buy-and-hold return for all IPO investors 1980 to 2025 was 19.1%. Less than broad-market indices (though that margin shrinks for $1bn+ sales IPOs). But certainly not negative. (Uber and Airbnb reflect this trend. Up since IPO. But, as you observe, below the S&P 500's returns even before taking into account total returns.) [1] https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/ground-rules/renaissance-ipo-indices-ground-rules.pdf https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/document... [2] https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.pdf https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.... 1980 to 2025; 30% (14%) for 2025