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Not sure what your point is. Stock markets are based on money going into securities based on estimated future value. Even if AI were doubling productivity at a

Not sure what your point is. Stock markets are based on money going into securities based on estimated future value. Even if AI were doubling productivity at a non-AI company, there is more leverage to that money going into an AI company. The question is, is AI leading to massive productivity gains in companies that implement it? AI productivity gains take time to diffuse, but so far companies in the S&P 500 are seeing very high growth. YOY earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.7% https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_060526.pdf https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Sect...

toasty228 4mo ago
> YOY earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.7% Now remove the companies selling the AI shovels: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIAjbZxacAARHwD.png https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIAjbZxacAARHwD.png > Not sure what your point is. My point is that they're selling us Skynet and the end of employment as we now it, things that we shouldn't even have to measure to perceive the results of, yet no one is able to measure any of it Pointing a finger at nvidia, google, and the other few companies stuck in circular investment schemes that shouldn't even be legal and saying "OOGA BOOGA line go UP, UP GOOD!" doesn't count in my book
- atleastoptimal 4mo ago
  Is the image you provided depicting revenue, or stock value? My point is about revenue.
  - toasty228 4mo ago
    Revenues don't matter when you sell a dollar for 50ct and half of the deals are circular anyways
    - atleastoptimal 4mo ago
      So you're claiming that the revenue growth of the S&P 500 over the last few years is largely due to "selling dollars for 50ct" and circular deals?
      - toasty228 4mo ago
        Yes. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bu... > AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.
        atleastoptimal 4mo ago
        has it occurred to you that AI companies may be making huge returns because AI is genuinely increasing productivity and driving actual economic growth via their products? If all these false practices can pull revenue out of nothing, why doesn’t every company do it? How come AI companies seem to be able to pull off financial magic that no other company can match? All your analyses still ignore the revenue point.
        dash2 4mo ago
        But then why don’t we see this productivity growth in any other statistics? In layoffs or in faster GDP growth or in new software products?
        toasty228 4mo ago
        > has it occurred to you that AI companies may be making huge returns because AI is genuinely increasing productivity and driving actual economic growth via their products? Then why can't anyone point at actual numbers? The best we get is "look: line go up" while pointing at either the companies selling the AI shovels or the companies selling $1 of tokens for 50ct. When cars replaced horses we didn't have to twist the numbers to understand the benefits. When emails replaced mails we didn't have to do 6 hours of mental gymnastics to see the increased productivity. Heck my grandma could tell the benefits of computers when the town hall she worked for finally discontinued typewriters They're spending hundreds of billions if not trillions, and have nothing to show for it besides like 5 stocks pumping like shit coins. On top of the the drawbacks are massive and very visible...
- Jtarii 4mo ago
  Charitably the lag time for this technology to have noticeable effects could just be ~5 years away. Similarly to how computers didn't have a big impact for a decade after they were introduced as people got used to using them.
- no-name-here 4mo ago
  Your grandparent comment: > Take any stock index, remove AI stocks, what do you see? That's right! Nothing... Parent comment: > Now remove the companies selling the AI shovels: https://pbs.twimg https://pbs.twimg.... From your linked image, "excluding AI stocks" is "+16%" (the figure with AI stocks is far higher). Your sole source says +16% excluding AI - in what kind of market is +16% “nothing”?
  - toasty228 4mo ago
    > in what kind of market is +16% “nothing”? It's nothing because it happens all the time, it's not statically relevant, like not at all: https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re... This forum is full of techies with very strong opinions about their toys but 0 economical, political or historical education, and it shows
    - no-name-here 4mo ago
      Those kind of returns would generally be considered at least ‘good’ even if they weren't excluding some of the best performing stocks such as AI as was done here. Some periods truly have no returns or even negative returns, even without excluding some of the best performing stocks like was done here. And even more so since inflation was 2-3%, not considered high, during most of that period.

toasty228 4mo ago

> YOY earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 21.7% Now remove the companies selling the AI shovels: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIAjbZxacAARHwD.png https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIAjbZxacAARHwD.png > Not sure what your point is. My point is that they're selling us Skynet and the end of employment as we now it, things that we shouldn't even have to measure to perceive the results of, yet no one is able to measure any of it Pointing a finger at nvidia, google, and the other few companies stuck in circular investment schemes that shouldn't even be legal and saying "OOGA BOOGA line go UP, UP GOOD!" doesn't count in my book

atleastoptimal 4mo ago
Is the image you provided depicting revenue, or stock value? My point is about revenue.
- toasty228 4mo ago
  Revenues don't matter when you sell a dollar for 50ct and half of the deals are circular anyways
  - atleastoptimal 4mo ago
    So you're claiming that the revenue growth of the S&P 500 over the last few years is largely due to "selling dollars for 50ct" and circular deals?
    - toasty228 4mo ago
      Yes. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bu... > AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.
      - atleastoptimal 4mo ago
        has it occurred to you that AI companies may be making huge returns because AI is genuinely increasing productivity and driving actual economic growth via their products? If all these false practices can pull revenue out of nothing, why doesn’t every company do it? How come AI companies seem to be able to pull off financial magic that no other company can match? All your analyses still ignore the revenue point.
        dash2 4mo ago
        But then why don’t we see this productivity growth in any other statistics? In layoffs or in faster GDP growth or in new software products?
        toasty228 4mo ago
        > has it occurred to you that AI companies may be making huge returns because AI is genuinely increasing productivity and driving actual economic growth via their products? Then why can't anyone point at actual numbers? The best we get is "look: line go up" while pointing at either the companies selling the AI shovels or the companies selling $1 of tokens for 50ct. When cars replaced horses we didn't have to twist the numbers to understand the benefits. When emails replaced mails we didn't have to do 6 hours of mental gymnastics to see the increased productivity. Heck my grandma could tell the benefits of computers when the town hall she worked for finally discontinued typewriters They're spending hundreds of billions if not trillions, and have nothing to show for it besides like 5 stocks pumping like shit coins. On top of the the drawbacks are massive and very visible...
Jtarii 4mo ago
Charitably the lag time for this technology to have noticeable effects could just be ~5 years away. Similarly to how computers didn't have a big impact for a decade after they were introduced as people got used to using them.
no-name-here 4mo ago
Your grandparent comment: > Take any stock index, remove AI stocks, what do you see? That's right! Nothing... Parent comment: > Now remove the companies selling the AI shovels: https://pbs.twimg https://pbs.twimg.... From your linked image, "excluding AI stocks" is "+16%" (the figure with AI stocks is far higher). Your sole source says +16% excluding AI - in what kind of market is +16% “nothing”?
- toasty228 4mo ago
  > in what kind of market is +16% “nothing”? It's nothing because it happens all the time, it's not statically relevant, like not at all: https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re... This forum is full of techies with very strong opinions about their toys but 0 economical, political or historical education, and it shows
  - no-name-here 4mo ago
    Those kind of returns would generally be considered at least ‘good’ even if they weren't excluding some of the best performing stocks such as AI as was done here. Some periods truly have no returns or even negative returns, even without excluding some of the best performing stocks like was done here. And even more so since inflation was 2-3%, not considered high, during most of that period.