3 ms·

> the estimates It doesn't estimate. It generates tokens that read like estimates associated with the context in its training material. What would you expect

> the estimates It doesn't estimate. It generates tokens that read like estimates associated with the context in its training material. What would you expect the generator to output instead?

ghshephard 4mo ago
I think people are continuing to view these systems as pure LLMs - when that ship sailed 6+ months ago. Between being able to review memory, using agent harnesses and sub agents and skills to go out and discover information - modern systems (Codex, Claude Code, Cursor) - use LLMs - but the LLM is only a small component of it. Compare what you get from sending a request to a chatbot like ChatGPT - to what you can from a modern harness. The output is influenced by the LLM, but it's no longer a "model making a token prediction based on training material and RLHF" - that's a very 2025 way of looking at these systems. Even Gary Marcus is starting to come around and realize that his priors are no longer as relevant as they once were.
- Terretta 4mo ago
  You think someone is, or even should, special case things like estimates? What else deserves that level of intervention so they look less dumb? Logistics for getting to the car wash next door? In the mean time, alas, no, we can see from actual prompts sent directly or through sub-agents, and actual replies, estimates remain LLM generated. Though, this discussion here could change that, because indeed there is a lot of special casing and context stuffing going on, one of the oldest being today's date for example. • • • I did read the Claude Code leak, and use pi, etc. So I disagree with your premise rather strongly. Today's "systems" remain, roughly, piles of markdown and context engineering wrapped in UI affordances, and behave very similarly today to how they did in 2024 for those already engineering context and delegating.
  - ghshephard 4mo ago
    I do a lot of code bisecting with Claude Code - and it spends hours running experiments - looking at experiment results, making guesses as to what to try next for an experiment - until it eventually comes around to a working code pattern. I mean - maybe this is as much a reflection on me as anything else - but it's pattern of logic isn't that much different from what I would do. It knows, in general, what tools and APIs it can call - it tries something - observes the result, and then comes back and tries different experiments based on success/failure - mostly efficiently bisecting to a solution. I'm still lower-down of the capability scale - as I'm still manually directing agents to do these wiggins loops - obviously the next step up is to direct the code-loops which control the agents. I just haven't got my tooling nailed in place to the point where I find that's more productive. I actually might agree with you that this is mostly just "next token prediction" - if I can concede that's really all I do as well.
    - Terretta 4mo ago
      > I actually might agree with you that this is mostly just "next token prediction" - if I can concede that's really all I do as well. Yep. Pretty sure I've got an LLM inside too. The other replies complaining that my thinking is so 2023 -- on the contrary, what's evolved is my own apprehension of how LLM-like most "responses" from humans prove as well. To be sure, there are other mechanisms at play as well, significant differentiation in our... Volume of training material? Quantizations/compression? Model architecture? Just-ahead-of-time forward branching with back propagation? Double loop adaptive learning? You know, harnessing the LLM. :-) Dare we call it executive function? LLM mode becomes particularly apparent when conversing with Alzheimer's patients in the stage where short term memories do not form but they retain access to long term memory up to, say, 5 years ago or so. Fifty years of who they are, and one can trigger nearly identical responses with nearly identical prompts. But that same person may be able to debate 1950s politics while being unable to complete making a sandwich. If they didn't know of new shortcuts for a task, would almost certainly not "estimate" but "intuit", or "instictively" respond (apply heuristics), largely based on their "priors" aka training material. If you sit with them and chat a while, you'll even get the kind of looping you get from Qwen trying to think when context is too full. And if we believe this at all, then ... we should stop scrolling tik tok. Time to read a book. Have an experience. Fine tune. :-)
  - 8note 4mo ago
    rather than special casing, make real data based on chat logs for how long things took both in calendar and chat time
- irthomasthomas 4mo ago
  No one is bitter lesson pilled anymore. Everyone is pivoting to neurosymbolic systems. It looks like Gary Marcus was right.
  - nl 4mo ago
    > No one is bitter lesson pilled anymore. Will the 10T parameter Mythos model be released this month or next month? They better soon because it is generally accepted that one of the reasons GPT 5.5 is better at hard tasks than Opus is because of its parameter size - and that Opus 4.8 remains competitive only be scaling test-time compute (see how many more tokens it uses than GPT 5.5) https://www.reddit.com/r/LLM/comments/1sz8bjz/parameter_estimate/ https://www.reddit.com/r/LLM/comments/1sz8bjz/parameter_esti...
    - irthomasthomas 4mo ago
      Why ask me? Anyway, Mythos is not 10T. Anthropic confirmed the training run was under 10^26 flops. You can't train 10T to chincilla and stay under 10^26. Anthropic also confirmed they will not release Mythos, only a "Mythos-class" model, whatever that means.
      - nl 4mo ago
        > Anthropic confirmed the training run was under 10^26 flops. You can't train 10T to chincilla and stay under 10^26. I don't think Anthropic have said anything of the sort. Microsoft published it as 6.1*10^27 FLOPs[1] Elon has claimed the are also training a 10T model because "Some catching up to do"[2] [1] https://x.com/scaling01/status/2061897540161728791 https://x.com/scaling01/status/2061897540161728791 [2] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2041754402239975479 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2041754402239975479
        irthomasthomas 4mo ago
        I must have confused mythos with opus 4.7. One of their recent model cards confirmed that training flops was under the EO reporting requirement of 10^26 flops.
carterschonwald 4mo ago
you might like the stuff in my work of oh my pi, its a test bed for my ideas around making these tools more reliable. hoping to maybe have a native ui iter of the real thing that this is a test bed for this summer. https://github.com/cartazio/oh-punkin-pi/blob/main/scripts/build-binary.sh https://github.com/cartazio/oh-punkin-pi/blob/main/scripts/b...
legulere 4mo ago
It generates tokens by estimating what the next token is going to be. Sure it cannot think like a human, but given it's input, it should give a good statistical answer (approximating not of how long it actually takes, but what a human would say how long it takes).
incr_me 4mo ago
Obviously there isn't a hidden corpus of logs of coding chatbot assistants that has been accumulating over the years, but these coding chatbot assistants output tokens that resemble how we all imagined a coding chatbot assistant would have operated had it existed in the first place to end up in a corpus. "Training material" includes supervised fine-tuning, preference training, RLHF, and so on, so that certain outputs (like these timeline estimates) may really have been decided (at some level of conscious awareness) by product teams.
nl 4mo ago
Actually in this case they possibly are estimates. It's been known for some years[1] that LLMs do regression in-context. Frontier models have been trained against many, many issue text that include task break downs and estimates. [1] https://arxiv.org/html/2409.04318v1 https://arxiv.org/html/2409.04318v1
- kube-system 4mo ago
  Interesting. So it may have learned how to estimate as a human but doesn’t understand that it doesn’t operate at that speed :D I wonder if there’s a reasonable way to give an llm parameters that give it a concept of its own execution speed. Seems that could be useful for multiple purposes
  - nl 4mo ago
    Yes, it's entirely possible to do that via RL. It'd be a fun little project you could do for less than $100 on a small LLM actually.
InterviewFrog 4mo ago
This is so 2023. The thought process. At that time the predominant view was that LLMs were nothing but stochastic parrots, that they would plateau, and that hallucinations couldn't be fixed. At this point I doubt there are any AI sceptics left. That ship has long sailed. The only thing that matters is whether the estimates are accurate, and AI can improve on that too. Even humans only estimate based on neurons firing in prior patterns.
- monkpit 4mo ago
  [dead]
mediaman 4mo ago
The funny thing about this comment is that neural networks are universal function approximators. The most fundamental essence of what they do is exactly what you say they don't: estimate.
- airstrike 4mo ago
  Funny and ironic in a way, but the point still stands that they do not actually estimate the time it will take.
  - greenavocado 4mo ago
    > they do not actually estimate the time it will take You can't prove that )))
    - airstrike 4mo ago
      Right, but extraordinary claims require...
      - greenavocado 4mo ago
        Instructions unclear, hard drive reformat completed.
taneq 4mo ago
Therein lies the rub, no? To accurately predict the next token produced by a process, it’s necessary to model that process. If the process is a human attempting to estimate the duration of a task, then in some sense the LLM is modeling the estimation process. We’re well past the point where it’s credible to claim that LLMs just regurgitate their training data.

> the estimates It doesn't estimate. It generates tokens that read like estimates associated with the context in its training material. What would you expect the generator to output instead?

ghshephard 4mo ago

I think people are continuing to view these systems as pure LLMs - when that ship sailed 6+ months ago. Between being able to review memory, using agent harnesses and sub agents and skills to go out and discover information - modern systems (Codex, Claude Code, Cursor) - use LLMs - but the LLM is only a small component of it. Compare what you get from sending a request to a chatbot like ChatGPT - to what you can from a modern harness. The output is influenced by the LLM, but it's no longer a "model making a token prediction based on training material and RLHF" - that's a very 2025 way of looking at these systems. Even Gary Marcus is starting to come around and realize that his priors are no longer as relevant as they once were.

Terretta 4mo ago
You think someone is, or even should, special case things like estimates? What else deserves that level of intervention so they look less dumb? Logistics for getting to the car wash next door? In the mean time, alas, no, we can see from actual prompts sent directly or through sub-agents, and actual replies, estimates remain LLM generated. Though, this discussion here could change that, because indeed there is a lot of special casing and context stuffing going on, one of the oldest being today's date for example. • • • I did read the Claude Code leak, and use pi, etc. So I disagree with your premise rather strongly. Today's "systems" remain, roughly, piles of markdown and context engineering wrapped in UI affordances, and behave very similarly today to how they did in 2024 for those already engineering context and delegating.
- ghshephard 4mo ago
  I do a lot of code bisecting with Claude Code - and it spends hours running experiments - looking at experiment results, making guesses as to what to try next for an experiment - until it eventually comes around to a working code pattern. I mean - maybe this is as much a reflection on me as anything else - but it's pattern of logic isn't that much different from what I would do. It knows, in general, what tools and APIs it can call - it tries something - observes the result, and then comes back and tries different experiments based on success/failure - mostly efficiently bisecting to a solution. I'm still lower-down of the capability scale - as I'm still manually directing agents to do these wiggins loops - obviously the next step up is to direct the code-loops which control the agents. I just haven't got my tooling nailed in place to the point where I find that's more productive. I actually might agree with you that this is mostly just "next token prediction" - if I can concede that's really all I do as well.
  - Terretta 4mo ago
    > I actually might agree with you that this is mostly just "next token prediction" - if I can concede that's really all I do as well. Yep. Pretty sure I've got an LLM inside too. The other replies complaining that my thinking is so 2023 -- on the contrary, what's evolved is my own apprehension of how LLM-like most "responses" from humans prove as well. To be sure, there are other mechanisms at play as well, significant differentiation in our... Volume of training material? Quantizations/compression? Model architecture? Just-ahead-of-time forward branching with back propagation? Double loop adaptive learning? You know, harnessing the LLM. :-) Dare we call it executive function? LLM mode becomes particularly apparent when conversing with Alzheimer's patients in the stage where short term memories do not form but they retain access to long term memory up to, say, 5 years ago or so. Fifty years of who they are, and one can trigger nearly identical responses with nearly identical prompts. But that same person may be able to debate 1950s politics while being unable to complete making a sandwich. If they didn't know of new shortcuts for a task, would almost certainly not "estimate" but "intuit", or "instictively" respond (apply heuristics), largely based on their "priors" aka training material. If you sit with them and chat a while, you'll even get the kind of looping you get from Qwen trying to think when context is too full. And if we believe this at all, then ... we should stop scrolling tik tok. Time to read a book. Have an experience. Fine tune. :-)
- 8note 4mo ago
  rather than special casing, make real data based on chat logs for how long things took both in calendar and chat time
irthomasthomas 4mo ago
No one is bitter lesson pilled anymore. Everyone is pivoting to neurosymbolic systems. It looks like Gary Marcus was right.
- nl 4mo ago
  > No one is bitter lesson pilled anymore. Will the 10T parameter Mythos model be released this month or next month? They better soon because it is generally accepted that one of the reasons GPT 5.5 is better at hard tasks than Opus is because of its parameter size - and that Opus 4.8 remains competitive only be scaling test-time compute (see how many more tokens it uses than GPT 5.5) https://www.reddit.com/r/LLM/comments/1sz8bjz/parameter_estimate/ https://www.reddit.com/r/LLM/comments/1sz8bjz/parameter_esti...
  - irthomasthomas 4mo ago
    Why ask me? Anyway, Mythos is not 10T. Anthropic confirmed the training run was under 10^26 flops. You can't train 10T to chincilla and stay under 10^26. Anthropic also confirmed they will not release Mythos, only a "Mythos-class" model, whatever that means.
    - nl 4mo ago
      > Anthropic confirmed the training run was under 10^26 flops. You can't train 10T to chincilla and stay under 10^26. I don't think Anthropic have said anything of the sort. Microsoft published it as 6.1*10^27 FLOPs[1] Elon has claimed the are also training a 10T model because "Some catching up to do"[2] [1] https://x.com/scaling01/status/2061897540161728791 https://x.com/scaling01/status/2061897540161728791 [2] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2041754402239975479 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2041754402239975479
      - irthomasthomas 4mo ago
        I must have confused mythos with opus 4.7. One of their recent model cards confirmed that training flops was under the EO reporting requirement of 10^26 flops.

carterschonwald 4mo ago

you might like the stuff in my work of oh my pi, its a test bed for my ideas around making these tools more reliable. hoping to maybe have a native ui iter of the real thing that this is a test bed for this summer. https://github.com/cartazio/oh-punkin-pi/blob/main/scripts/build-binary.sh https://github.com/cartazio/oh-punkin-pi/blob/main/scripts/b...

legulere 4mo ago

It generates tokens by estimating what the next token is going to be. Sure it cannot think like a human, but given it's input, it should give a good statistical answer (approximating not of how long it actually takes, but what a human would say how long it takes).

incr_me 4mo ago

Obviously there isn't a hidden corpus of logs of coding chatbot assistants that has been accumulating over the years, but these coding chatbot assistants output tokens that resemble how we all imagined a coding chatbot assistant would have operated had it existed in the first place to end up in a corpus. "Training material" includes supervised fine-tuning, preference training, RLHF, and so on, so that certain outputs (like these timeline estimates) may really have been decided (at some level of conscious awareness) by product teams.

nl 4mo ago

Actually in this case they possibly are estimates. It's been known for some years[1] that LLMs do regression in-context. Frontier models have been trained against many, many issue text that include task break downs and estimates. [1] https://arxiv.org/html/2409.04318v1 https://arxiv.org/html/2409.04318v1

kube-system 4mo ago
Interesting. So it may have learned how to estimate as a human but doesn’t understand that it doesn’t operate at that speed :D I wonder if there’s a reasonable way to give an llm parameters that give it a concept of its own execution speed. Seems that could be useful for multiple purposes
- nl 4mo ago
  Yes, it's entirely possible to do that via RL. It'd be a fun little project you could do for less than $100 on a small LLM actually.

InterviewFrog 4mo ago

This is so 2023. The thought process. At that time the predominant view was that LLMs were nothing but stochastic parrots, that they would plateau, and that hallucinations couldn't be fixed. At this point I doubt there are any AI sceptics left. That ship has long sailed. The only thing that matters is whether the estimates are accurate, and AI can improve on that too. Even humans only estimate based on neurons firing in prior patterns.

monkpit 4mo ago
[dead]

mediaman 4mo ago

The funny thing about this comment is that neural networks are universal function approximators. The most fundamental essence of what they do is exactly what you say they don't: estimate.

airstrike 4mo ago
Funny and ironic in a way, but the point still stands that they do not actually estimate the time it will take.
- greenavocado 4mo ago
  > they do not actually estimate the time it will take You can't prove that )))
  - airstrike 4mo ago
    Right, but extraordinary claims require...
    - greenavocado 4mo ago
      Instructions unclear, hard drive reformat completed.

taneq 4mo ago

Therein lies the rub, no? To accurately predict the next token produced by a process, it’s necessary to model that process. If the process is a human attempting to estimate the duration of a task, then in some sense the LLM is modeling the estimation process. We’re well past the point where it’s credible to claim that LLMs just regurgitate their training data.