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At the time "polls" predicted a Remain win. Between the vote and the eventual Brexit along with protests, there was a government petition for a redo and a Remai

by ptaffs 4mo ago

At the time "polls" predicted a Remain win. Between the vote and the eventual Brexit along with protests, there was a government petition for a redo and a Remain optimism that a re-do would flip the result. For this poll to me meaningful, I would expect to see declining support for Reform. But the opposite is happening. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/revoke-article-50-petition-brexit-trump-second-referendum-a8835606.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/revoke-artic...

bojan 4mo ago
> At the time "polls" predicted a Remain win. This is a common trope but is simply not true. The polls were really tight[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United...
- ceejayoz 4mo ago
  Your link largely agrees; the "Polls of polls" shows a general consensus on a tight Remain win, and the chart shows the convergence being very late in the game.
moomin 4mo ago
Reform don’t need 50%, though. I don’t think even Margaret Thatcher’s landslide got more than 40% of the vote.
ceejayoz 4mo ago
A change of this magnitude probably should've been like an American constitutional amendment; a stricter requirement than 50%+1 vote.
- f33d5173 4mo ago
  What percentage of the vote was required to join the EU? The EU effectively constitutes a relinquishment of sovereignty, but that's not how it was sold to citizens, they were told that they could leave at any time.
  - ptaffs 4mo ago
    You remember the story the citizens were sold but not the vote requirement seems odd. From a minimum of research, it seems there was no vote to join the EU, which did not exist at the time (1973) of the European Communities project with common currency and the rest. But in 1975 they had a referendum to stay and decided they would with a 67% Yes.
    - f33d5173 4mo ago
      It was a rhetorical question. Usually decisions in democracies require a 50% majority, as here.
  - ceejayoz 4mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Accession_1972 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Accession_1972 > The United Kingdom consulted its citizens directly only after joining the European Communities: following the British general election of October 1974, the Labour government of Harold Wilson held a referendum to fulfill one of its campaign promises. The non-binding referendum was held on 5 June 1975, some two and half years after the UK's accession. It was the first ever national referendum to be held in the UK, and the "yes" vote won by a landslide 67.23% on a 65% turnout with 66 out of the 68 local counting areas returning majority "yes" votes. I'm inclined to count that.
  - munksbeer 4mo ago
    > the EU effectively constitutes a relinquishment of sovereignty Agreed, it is pooling sovereignty. The UK already does that with a union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Pooling sovereignty is often regarded as a benefit on the whole.

by ptaffs 4mo ago

bojan 4mo ago

> At the time "polls" predicted a Remain win. This is a common trope but is simply not true. The polls were really tight[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United...

ceejayoz 4mo ago
Your link largely agrees; the "Polls of polls" shows a general consensus on a tight Remain win, and the chart shows the convergence being very late in the game.

moomin 4mo ago

Reform don’t need 50%, though. I don’t think even Margaret Thatcher’s landslide got more than 40% of the vote.

ceejayoz 4mo ago

A change of this magnitude probably should've been like an American constitutional amendment; a stricter requirement than 50%+1 vote.

f33d5173 4mo ago
What percentage of the vote was required to join the EU? The EU effectively constitutes a relinquishment of sovereignty, but that's not how it was sold to citizens, they were told that they could leave at any time.
- ptaffs 4mo ago
  You remember the story the citizens were sold but not the vote requirement seems odd. From a minimum of research, it seems there was no vote to join the EU, which did not exist at the time (1973) of the European Communities project with common currency and the rest. But in 1975 they had a referendum to stay and decided they would with a 67% Yes.
  - f33d5173 4mo ago
    It was a rhetorical question. Usually decisions in democracies require a 50% majority, as here.
- ceejayoz 4mo ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Accession_1972 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Accession_1972 > The United Kingdom consulted its citizens directly only after joining the European Communities: following the British general election of October 1974, the Labour government of Harold Wilson held a referendum to fulfill one of its campaign promises. The non-binding referendum was held on 5 June 1975, some two and half years after the UK's accession. It was the first ever national referendum to be held in the UK, and the "yes" vote won by a landslide 67.23% on a 65% turnout with 66 out of the 68 local counting areas returning majority "yes" votes. I'm inclined to count that.
- munksbeer 4mo ago
  > the EU effectively constitutes a relinquishment of sovereignty Agreed, it is pooling sovereignty. The UK already does that with a union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Pooling sovereignty is often regarded as a benefit on the whole.