3 ms·

I don’t buy it. They are getting ready make Farage a prime minister, based on the exact same premise: xenophobia.

by noncoml 4mo ago

Dig1t 4mo ago
[flagged]
- dijksterhuis 4mo ago
  As someone who is white british -- this isn't happening. Please stop regurgitating right wing US talk show talking points. It's boring.
  - Dig1t 4mo ago
    Just look at the data, you say "it isn't happening" but it's easy to prove. University of Manchester: https://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/institutes/code/briefings/dynamicsofdiversity/how-has-ethnic-diversity-grown-1991-2001-2011.pdf https://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/institutes/code/briefings/... 1990: White British 95% 2025: White British 77% 2050 (projected): White British 57% Many parts of London the percentage in schools is already below 20%. Here are projections for the near future: https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/what-the-uk-population-will-look https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/what-the-uk-population-wil... Here is the data from the UK government itself: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/dbdaa603-71e2-4050-8605-690fd0df4491 https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tab...
    - dijksterhuis 4mo ago
      as per sibling comment, your headline stats are cherry picking two things that are not representative of the whole of the uk. university of manchester is a university, and since the cameron/clegg tuition fee change it was more profitable to attract international students. that’s not representative of the wider population, data is skewed. so you’re cherry picking some stats that are not representative there. london, well it’s lahndahn. it’s in no way representative of the rest of the uk. remember how people complain about london centric decisions made that have no relation to where they live? because lahndahn is not representative of the rest of the country. when i go home to oxfordshire i don’t get confused with where i am because oxfordshire is obviously not the same place as lahdahn. the projections are just projections and judging from the domain name aren’t from anywhere official. so i’ll gloss over them as i cba. the one national statistic you’ve found - the a 4% share change from 69% ish to 64% over five years for school pupils, this is not white british people becoming a minority. it is a very long way to go until we’re under 50% in that one statistic. here a better statistic from the 2021 census, actually tracking national level ethnicity > “White" remained the largest high-level ethnic group in England and Wales; 81.7% (48.7 million) of usual residents identified this way in 2021, a decrease from 86.0% (48.2 million) in 2011. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/bulletins/ethnicgroupenglandandwales/census2021#ethnic-groups-in-england-and-wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/cultural... 80% is a long way off from 50%. i know it makes you all scared and insecure inside. but don’t forgot, these other people are just that. other people. the only scary thing about them is whatever is running through your own mind, or whatever bs people are spouting on social media. in reality, they’re not that scary actually. usually they’re really lovely humans. try speaking to some of them some time.
  - gib444 4mo ago
    London, white British %, census data 2001: 59% 2011: 44% 2021: 36% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London
    - dijksterhuis 4mo ago
      london is one place in the whole of the uk. might be the big stonking capital city, but it is definitely not representative of the whole of the UK. late edit copypasta stat from sibling reply with actual national census data instead of cherry picking from the obvious culturally diverse capital city > "White" remained the largest high-level ethnic group in England and Wales; 81.7% (48.7 million) of usual residents identified this way in 2021, a decrease from 86.0% (48.2 million) in 2011. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/bulletins/ethnicgroupenglandandwales/census2021#ethnic-groups-in-england-and-wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/cultural... 80% is a long way off from 50%. and it took 10 years to drop by 5ish percent. in something like 50-60 years us white british people can start moaning about becoming a minority (assuming certain things on average stay the same, or average out over the 50-60 years).
      - gib444 4mo ago
        Birmingham (2nd largest city): 1991: 78% 2001: 65% 2011: 57% 2021: 48% Manchester (3rd largest city): 2001: 74% 2011: 59% 2021: 48% I can keep going until you get tired
        dijksterhuis 4mo ago
        what would be appreciated is 1. sources for your numbers rather than just random numbers thrown out on the internet 2. not using specific city data, i.e. look at national census-type level data. because if you look at the largest cities in the UK you're going to see effects/changes which are local to those cities, and not nationally applicable. manc/brum are still not representative of the whole country. You're still cherry picking your statistics, which is how to lie with stats 101 (i did that for a job for 3+ years, i know all the wily tricks dude). Feel free to keep going, but you'll just be cherry picking more and more un-representative samples until you start using national level census-type data.
delecti 4mo ago
I'm sure that's part of why, but the bigger reason is probably a more reflexive "well we switched more left and it didn't help, what if we go the other way." After a dramatic Labour win, they're just Conservative-lite. That kind of "well this didn't work, lets go the other way" response doesn't necessarily mean anything about any party's actual popularity.
- noncoml 4mo ago
  Huh? Brexit materialized in 2020. Labour happened in 2024. Immigration going up between 2020-2024. Going down since 2024. And that’s somehow Labour’s fault?
  - delecti 4mo ago
    I'm saying that I believe public opinion on Brexit is unrelated to public opinion on Conservative/Labour/Reform. I also believe that public opinion on Conservative/Labour/Reform is unrelated to any particular policy positions of any of those three beyond "things were bad under C, lets try L" and then "things are bad under L, lets try R". That's my explanation for Brexit being unpopular, but Reform nonetheless performing well in polls and the recent local elections. ("unrelated" is too strong, but I think they're weak correlations)
jltsiren 4mo ago
Those two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. A first-past-the-post system can give the power to a minority, if the opposing votes are divided. In the 2024 elections, Labour got a third of the votes but almost two thirds of the seats.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
bpye 4mo ago
If they do, Reform would almost certainly form government on a minority of the vote. Brexit was a yes/no question.

I don’t buy it. They are getting ready make Farage a prime minister, based on the exact same premise: xenophobia.

by noncoml 4mo ago

I don’t buy it. They are getting ready make Farage a prime minister, based on the exact same premise: xenophobia.

Dig1t 4mo ago

[flagged]

dijksterhuis 4mo ago
As someone who is white british -- this isn't happening. Please stop regurgitating right wing US talk show talking points. It's boring.
- Dig1t 4mo ago
  Just look at the data, you say "it isn't happening" but it's easy to prove. University of Manchester: https://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/institutes/code/briefings/dynamicsofdiversity/how-has-ethnic-diversity-grown-1991-2001-2011.pdf https://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/institutes/code/briefings/... 1990: White British 95% 2025: White British 77% 2050 (projected): White British 57% Many parts of London the percentage in schools is already below 20%. Here are projections for the near future: https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/what-the-uk-population-will-look https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/what-the-uk-population-wil... Here is the data from the UK government itself: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/dbdaa603-71e2-4050-8605-690fd0df4491 https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tab...
  - dijksterhuis 4mo ago
    as per sibling comment, your headline stats are cherry picking two things that are not representative of the whole of the uk. university of manchester is a university, and since the cameron/clegg tuition fee change it was more profitable to attract international students. that’s not representative of the wider population, data is skewed. so you’re cherry picking some stats that are not representative there. london, well it’s lahndahn. it’s in no way representative of the rest of the uk. remember how people complain about london centric decisions made that have no relation to where they live? because lahndahn is not representative of the rest of the country. when i go home to oxfordshire i don’t get confused with where i am because oxfordshire is obviously not the same place as lahdahn. the projections are just projections and judging from the domain name aren’t from anywhere official. so i’ll gloss over them as i cba. the one national statistic you’ve found - the a 4% share change from 69% ish to 64% over five years for school pupils, this is not white british people becoming a minority. it is a very long way to go until we’re under 50% in that one statistic. here a better statistic from the 2021 census, actually tracking national level ethnicity > “White" remained the largest high-level ethnic group in England and Wales; 81.7% (48.7 million) of usual residents identified this way in 2021, a decrease from 86.0% (48.2 million) in 2011. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/bulletins/ethnicgroupenglandandwales/census2021#ethnic-groups-in-england-and-wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/cultural... 80% is a long way off from 50%. i know it makes you all scared and insecure inside. but don’t forgot, these other people are just that. other people. the only scary thing about them is whatever is running through your own mind, or whatever bs people are spouting on social media. in reality, they’re not that scary actually. usually they’re really lovely humans. try speaking to some of them some time.
- gib444 4mo ago
  London, white British %, census data 2001: 59% 2011: 44% 2021: 36% https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London
  - dijksterhuis 4mo ago
    london is one place in the whole of the uk. might be the big stonking capital city, but it is definitely not representative of the whole of the UK. late edit copypasta stat from sibling reply with actual national census data instead of cherry picking from the obvious culturally diverse capital city > "White" remained the largest high-level ethnic group in England and Wales; 81.7% (48.7 million) of usual residents identified this way in 2021, a decrease from 86.0% (48.2 million) in 2011. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/ethnicity/bulletins/ethnicgroupenglandandwales/census2021#ethnic-groups-in-england-and-wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/cultural... 80% is a long way off from 50%. and it took 10 years to drop by 5ish percent. in something like 50-60 years us white british people can start moaning about becoming a minority (assuming certain things on average stay the same, or average out over the 50-60 years).
    - gib444 4mo ago
      Birmingham (2nd largest city): 1991: 78% 2001: 65% 2011: 57% 2021: 48% Manchester (3rd largest city): 2001: 74% 2011: 59% 2021: 48% I can keep going until you get tired
      - dijksterhuis 4mo ago
        what would be appreciated is 1. sources for your numbers rather than just random numbers thrown out on the internet 2. not using specific city data, i.e. look at national census-type level data. because if you look at the largest cities in the UK you're going to see effects/changes which are local to those cities, and not nationally applicable. manc/brum are still not representative of the whole country. You're still cherry picking your statistics, which is how to lie with stats 101 (i did that for a job for 3+ years, i know all the wily tricks dude). Feel free to keep going, but you'll just be cherry picking more and more un-representative samples until you start using national level census-type data.

delecti 4mo ago

I'm sure that's part of why, but the bigger reason is probably a more reflexive "well we switched more left and it didn't help, what if we go the other way." After a dramatic Labour win, they're just Conservative-lite. That kind of "well this didn't work, lets go the other way" response doesn't necessarily mean anything about any party's actual popularity.

noncoml 4mo ago
Huh? Brexit materialized in 2020. Labour happened in 2024. Immigration going up between 2020-2024. Going down since 2024. And that’s somehow Labour’s fault?
- delecti 4mo ago
  I'm saying that I believe public opinion on Brexit is unrelated to public opinion on Conservative/Labour/Reform. I also believe that public opinion on Conservative/Labour/Reform is unrelated to any particular policy positions of any of those three beyond "things were bad under C, lets try L" and then "things are bad under L, lets try R". That's my explanation for Brexit being unpopular, but Reform nonetheless performing well in polls and the recent local elections. ("unrelated" is too strong, but I think they're weak correlations)

jltsiren 4mo ago

Those two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. A first-past-the-post system can give the power to a minority, if the opposing votes are divided. In the 2024 elections, Labour got a third of the votes but almost two thirds of the seats.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]

bpye 4mo ago

If they do, Reform would almost certainly form government on a minority of the vote. Brexit was a yes/no question.