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I think it's more a consequence of pushing for the biggest valuation/IPO. Rumoured profits on inference are north of 70%. Taking SpaceX as an example, they hav

I think it's more a consequence of pushing for the biggest valuation/IPO. Rumoured profits on inference are north of 70%. Taking SpaceX as an example, they have increased prices across all their consumer products over the past six months. But they definitely aren't short on money with Alphabet and Anthropic combined paying them over $2 billion per month. Microsoft/GitHub lost out here as they were just repacking other people's products.

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lefra 4mo ago
Inference can only happen after having invested in training and datacenter construction. Arguing about "inference profitability" sounds a lot to me like ignoring large cost centers of these comanies.
jurgenburgen 4mo ago
> Rumoured profits on inference are north of 70%. Rumors are worth squat when they’re most likely put in motion by the people with a vested interest in this industry. Let’s talk about profits when there’s real data from the IPO documentation.
- NitpickLawyer 4mo ago
  > Rumors are worth squat You can make some educated guesses and find out some limits on inferencing cost by looking at 3rd party providers on platforms like openrouter. You can get some median cost /tok for a given model size. Then make some educated guesses on SotA model sizes, and you can get an estimate on pure cost of serving a model. Error bars and all that, of course. But still a range, with some limits.
  - shimman 4mo ago
    No, you can't really make educated guesses unless people start opening their books. Especially in an industry where the vast majority of firms make up valuations out of thin air and not based on any reproducible insights.
    - NitpickLawyer 4mo ago
      Opening their books would let you know things like profitability. I'm talking about cost per token, model development and human costs being irrelevant.
      - whattheheckheck 4mo ago
        Yeah take the gpu rental cost, what it can run, how many tokens per second come out and see the true rate per token. Plus the margin on harness special sauce
phyzix5761 4mo ago
SpaceX is increasing prices because they're trying really hard to get into the S&P 500.
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TSiege 4mo ago
How is spacex not short on money when no one will pay them to use their models and they lose money every quarter? Sure they’re now transitioning to a data center provider away from actually being an AI company because they’re losing less money that way but it doesn’t sound like a strategic success

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lefra 4mo ago

Inference can only happen after having invested in training and datacenter construction. Arguing about "inference profitability" sounds a lot to me like ignoring large cost centers of these comanies.

jurgenburgen 4mo ago

> Rumoured profits on inference are north of 70%. Rumors are worth squat when they’re most likely put in motion by the people with a vested interest in this industry. Let’s talk about profits when there’s real data from the IPO documentation.

NitpickLawyer 4mo ago
> Rumors are worth squat You can make some educated guesses and find out some limits on inferencing cost by looking at 3rd party providers on platforms like openrouter. You can get some median cost /tok for a given model size. Then make some educated guesses on SotA model sizes, and you can get an estimate on pure cost of serving a model. Error bars and all that, of course. But still a range, with some limits.
- shimman 4mo ago
  No, you can't really make educated guesses unless people start opening their books. Especially in an industry where the vast majority of firms make up valuations out of thin air and not based on any reproducible insights.
  - NitpickLawyer 4mo ago
    Opening their books would let you know things like profitability. I'm talking about cost per token, model development and human costs being irrelevant.
    - whattheheckheck 4mo ago
      Yeah take the gpu rental cost, what it can run, how many tokens per second come out and see the true rate per token. Plus the margin on harness special sauce

phyzix5761 4mo ago

SpaceX is increasing prices because they're trying really hard to get into the S&P 500.

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TSiege 4mo ago

How is spacex not short on money when no one will pay them to use their models and they lose money every quarter? Sure they’re now transitioning to a data center provider away from actually being an AI company because they’re losing less money that way but it doesn’t sound like a strategic success