6 ms·

It might be. It might not be. That's where the money is or isn't. I think the mature part of their business is 3/Y, energy storage, and maybe cybertruck, altho

It might be. It might not be. That's where the money is or isn't. I think the mature part of their business is 3/Y, energy storage, and maybe cybertruck, although I also think it's too early to call it because it depends on lower cost cell in house cell production and they only started that recently. In the near term, the growth part is Semi, cybercab, FSD, lithium cell production, and maybe cybertruck. In the long term, it's potentially Optimus, more general autonomy, and gigafactories.

sethops1 4mo ago
The growth part of Tesla is the increasingly large promises of snake oil Elon can spin.
- omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
  That's what many said when they were ramping the S/X, the 3/Y, and energy storage. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ That doesn't mean they can't make a mess of things all by themselves. But comparing their infra investments/growth strategy to snake oil when they've gone from nothing to $100 billion/year in 15+ years might be short sighted.
tsimionescu 4mo ago
Semi is DoA, FSD has been 1 year away for 10 years now give or take, cybercab is flailing, cybertruck same, and China is eating everyone's lunch on lithium cells.
- omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
  What you're saying about Semi and cybercab is what everyone said about S/X and 3/Y. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ They might might fail, but I wouldn't bet on it. Also cybercab isn't out yet, so any discussion is premature at best. Cybertruck has been disappointing, but I think a big part of that is cost. They started in house dry 4680 cell/pack production a couple months ago, so we'll see how that goes over the next few years. Even with China subsidizing cell production and being dominant in the world market, Tesla is still at 150gwh/year compared to 200gwh/year from BYD. The big question is how the dry cell 4680 packs will perform and how well they can scale production if performance is adequate. FSD is always a year away, but that's generally OK as long as it keeps improving and there isn't a comparable product in their cost bracket. If someone leapfrogs them, they're done. If not, they might be able to roll everything up all the way through Optimus.
- throwaway2037 4mo ago
  Why do you think "Semi is DoA"? The current offering for heavy haul electric trucks is tiny (very few competitors), but the addressable market is huge. I think there is a good chance we will be surprised by its success. Even if you dislike the wild hype around Elon Musk (I don't care for it), it is hard to disagree that he has built an incredible EV company. The products they produce are excellent (minus the Cybertruck, too early to say for Cybercab), both from a hardware and software perspective. I think they can do the same for heavy haul electric trucks. The economics of diesel vs electric for heavy haul trucks is a no-brainer. Diesel is much more expensive per kilometer compared to electricity. And maintenance is much cheaper for electric vehicles. Before finishing this reply, I checked for recent news about the Tesla Semi. I learned that they have a new separate factory (1.7m sq feet!) that has started production and has capacity to produce 50,000 Semis annually. It is next door to the original Gigafactory.
  - tsimionescu 4mo ago
    > Why do you think "Semi is DoA"? They started producing and selling the Semi in 2022 (after its unveiling in 2017, when they started taking pre-orders) and from everything I've dug up with a bit of Googling it seems they have shipped fewer than 200 trucks by 2025. We'll see if this new 50k per year factory will actually have customers to ship to, but I wouldn't hold my breath given the current track record. > The economics of diesel vs electric for heavy haul trucks is a no-brainer. Diesel is much more expensive per kilometer compared to electricity. The economics you need to look at are dollars/hour/kg delivered. If the battery is too heavy or the charge time too long, the economics turn out much worse. We'll see once real world experiences start being published what it actually does.
    - throwaway2037 4mo ago
      No, the early units from 2022 were essentially beta testing for both Tesla and their early customers (Pepsi, etc.). Wiki says: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi > Volume production of the Semi started on April 29, 2026. Note volume in that statement. You wrote: "If the battery is too heavy". The 2026 version of Tesla Semi is 450kg lighter than 2022 model because they switched the internal voltage from 12W to 48W, which reduces required wire gauges. You wrote: "The economics you need to look at are dollars/hour/kg delivered." The original idea for a heavy haul electric truck came from within Tesla. Senior execs wanted to know how they could reduce transport costs for parts manufactured in Fremont, Calif to the Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. They were using heavy haul diesel trucks to move these parts. > the charge time too long PepsiCo has been driving Tesla Semis since 2022. They have multiple "megachargers" installed on both ends (factory and various warehouses). Google tells me: "allowing the trucks to recharge to roughly 70-80% capacity in about 30 to 45 minutes." That is plenty fast for a truck that needs to load/unload. Tesla recently released a video of a 1.2MW charge session. See: https://x.com/tesla_semi/status/2006431772360474841 https://x.com/tesla_semi/status/2006431772360474841

sethops1 4mo ago

The growth part of Tesla is the increasingly large promises of snake oil Elon can spin.

omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
That's what many said when they were ramping the S/X, the 3/Y, and energy storage. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ That doesn't mean they can't make a mess of things all by themselves. But comparing their infra investments/growth strategy to snake oil when they've gone from nothing to $100 billion/year in 15+ years might be short sighted.

tsimionescu 4mo ago

Semi is DoA, FSD has been 1 year away for 10 years now give or take, cybercab is flailing, cybertruck same, and China is eating everyone's lunch on lithium cells.

omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
What you're saying about Semi and cybercab is what everyone said about S/X and 3/Y. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ They might might fail, but I wouldn't bet on it. Also cybercab isn't out yet, so any discussion is premature at best. Cybertruck has been disappointing, but I think a big part of that is cost. They started in house dry 4680 cell/pack production a couple months ago, so we'll see how that goes over the next few years. Even with China subsidizing cell production and being dominant in the world market, Tesla is still at 150gwh/year compared to 200gwh/year from BYD. The big question is how the dry cell 4680 packs will perform and how well they can scale production if performance is adequate. FSD is always a year away, but that's generally OK as long as it keeps improving and there isn't a comparable product in their cost bracket. If someone leapfrogs them, they're done. If not, they might be able to roll everything up all the way through Optimus.
throwaway2037 4mo ago
Why do you think "Semi is DoA"? The current offering for heavy haul electric trucks is tiny (very few competitors), but the addressable market is huge. I think there is a good chance we will be surprised by its success. Even if you dislike the wild hype around Elon Musk (I don't care for it), it is hard to disagree that he has built an incredible EV company. The products they produce are excellent (minus the Cybertruck, too early to say for Cybercab), both from a hardware and software perspective. I think they can do the same for heavy haul electric trucks. The economics of diesel vs electric for heavy haul trucks is a no-brainer. Diesel is much more expensive per kilometer compared to electricity. And maintenance is much cheaper for electric vehicles. Before finishing this reply, I checked for recent news about the Tesla Semi. I learned that they have a new separate factory (1.7m sq feet!) that has started production and has capacity to produce 50,000 Semis annually. It is next door to the original Gigafactory.
- tsimionescu 4mo ago
  > Why do you think "Semi is DoA"? They started producing and selling the Semi in 2022 (after its unveiling in 2017, when they started taking pre-orders) and from everything I've dug up with a bit of Googling it seems they have shipped fewer than 200 trucks by 2025. We'll see if this new 50k per year factory will actually have customers to ship to, but I wouldn't hold my breath given the current track record. > The economics of diesel vs electric for heavy haul trucks is a no-brainer. Diesel is much more expensive per kilometer compared to electricity. The economics you need to look at are dollars/hour/kg delivered. If the battery is too heavy or the charge time too long, the economics turn out much worse. We'll see once real world experiences start being published what it actually does.
  - throwaway2037 4mo ago
    No, the early units from 2022 were essentially beta testing for both Tesla and their early customers (Pepsi, etc.). Wiki says: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Semi > Volume production of the Semi started on April 29, 2026. Note volume in that statement. You wrote: "If the battery is too heavy". The 2026 version of Tesla Semi is 450kg lighter than 2022 model because they switched the internal voltage from 12W to 48W, which reduces required wire gauges. You wrote: "The economics you need to look at are dollars/hour/kg delivered." The original idea for a heavy haul electric truck came from within Tesla. Senior execs wanted to know how they could reduce transport costs for parts manufactured in Fremont, Calif to the Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. They were using heavy haul diesel trucks to move these parts. > the charge time too long PepsiCo has been driving Tesla Semis since 2022. They have multiple "megachargers" installed on both ends (factory and various warehouses). Google tells me: "allowing the trucks to recharge to roughly 70-80% capacity in about 30 to 45 minutes." That is plenty fast for a truck that needs to load/unload. Tesla recently released a video of a 1.2MW charge session. See: https://x.com/tesla_semi/status/2006431772360474841 https://x.com/tesla_semi/status/2006431772360474841