8 ms·

Bus Tesla isn’t in anything looking like a growth phase

thelastgallon 4mo ago
2024 total deliveries: 1,789,226 2025 total deliveries: 1,636,129 8% decline YOY, Tesla shut down production of Model S & X. Eventually, they will become a pure speculation as a service stock, with zero production. But its cheaper to produce than bitcoin, no energy needs to be expended, runs on pure Musk energy!
- maxlin 4mo ago
  They shut down production of S & X to make more capability for cars that they want to focus on and which sell way more, AND Cybercab. Tesla grows in large steps. Next big step is Robotaxis, which is well on its way. After that, robots, for which they have the best real-world AI platform for. You could say Tesla is a speculation stock as well when they had released the Roadster. Tesla shorters always lose.
  - rootusrootus 4mo ago
    > Tesla shorters always lose Isn't that true more often than not no matter what company you try to short? It's a tough game to play.
  - throwaway2037 4mo ago
    > Tesla shorters always lose. This is categorically untrue. Look at a chart of their stock from 2020 forward. It has massive spikes up and down. Plenty of shorters made good money in those falls using put options.
  - mrhottakes 4mo ago
    > They shut down production of S & X to make more capability for cars that they want to focus on and which sell way more, AND Cybercab. Which Tesla models sell more than the S and X?
    - omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
      Most/all of them. Even cybertruck sold more in 2025 (20k) versus S+X (30k combined), and that's after cybertruck sales were more or less cut in half.
- throwaway2037 4mo ago
  I feel that the value of their supercharger network is overlooked. No one outside of China is even close to their global footprint. It would probably be a great business to spin out of Tesla if they pivot away from building cars. When I watch YouTubers talk about the trouble of getting their EVs charged, many complain that competitors are much worse on a variety of metrics. Time and time again, they favour Tesla. And these are not Tesla fanatics -- many don't even own a Tesla.
  - blonder 4mo ago
    That value is only growing as new supercharger builds are now compatible with almost all EVs in the US. Supercharge.info is a good 3rd party website for tracking superchargers, and is interesting to play around with filters to look at how the supercharger buildout has progressed.
  - thelastgallon 4mo ago
    The charging networks will be largely irrelevant in the long run. People go to gas stations because there is no supply of petrol to homes/offices. Electricity is available at every building, where people live and work. Cars are parked for 22+ hours a day, and eventually you can charge anywhere you park. No need to going to a special place just to charge cars.
sroussey 4mo ago
It is in the shrinking stage with robot dreams.
omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
It might be. It might not be. That's where the money is or isn't. I think the mature part of their business is 3/Y, energy storage, and maybe cybertruck, although I also think it's too early to call it because it depends on lower cost cell in house cell production and they only started that recently. In the near term, the growth part is Semi, cybercab, FSD, lithium cell production, and maybe cybertruck. In the long term, it's potentially Optimus, more general autonomy, and gigafactories.
- sethops1 4mo ago
  The growth part of Tesla is the increasingly large promises of snake oil Elon can spin.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
    That's what many said when they were ramping the S/X, the 3/Y, and energy storage. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ That doesn't mean they can't make a mess of things all by themselves. But comparing their infra investments/growth strategy to snake oil when they've gone from nothing to $100 billion/year in 15+ years might be short sighted.
- tsimionescu 4mo ago
  Semi is DoA, FSD has been 1 year away for 10 years now give or take, cybercab is flailing, cybertruck same, and China is eating everyone's lunch on lithium cells.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
    What you're saying about Semi and cybercab is what everyone said about S/X and 3/Y. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ They might might fail, but I wouldn't bet on it. Also cybercab isn't out yet, so any discussion is premature at best. Cybertruck has been disappointing, but I think a big part of that is cost. They started in house dry 4680 cell/pack production a couple months ago, so we'll see how that goes over the next few years. Even with China subsidizing cell production and being dominant in the world market, Tesla is still at 150gwh/year compared to 200gwh/year from BYD. The big question is how the dry cell 4680 packs will perform and how well they can scale production if performance is adequate. FSD is always a year away, but that's generally OK as long as it keeps improving and there isn't a comparable product in their cost bracket. If someone leapfrogs them, they're done. If not, they might be able to roll everything up all the way through Optimus.

2024 total deliveries: 1,789,226 2025 total deliveries: 1,636,129 8% decline YOY, Tesla shut down production of Model S & X. Eventually, they will become a pure speculation as a service stock, with zero production. But its cheaper to produce than bitcoin, no energy needs to be expended, runs on pure Musk energy!

maxlin 4mo ago
They shut down production of S & X to make more capability for cars that they want to focus on and which sell way more, AND Cybercab. Tesla grows in large steps. Next big step is Robotaxis, which is well on its way. After that, robots, for which they have the best real-world AI platform for. You could say Tesla is a speculation stock as well when they had released the Roadster. Tesla shorters always lose.
- rootusrootus 4mo ago
  > Tesla shorters always lose Isn't that true more often than not no matter what company you try to short? It's a tough game to play.
- throwaway2037 4mo ago
  > Tesla shorters always lose. This is categorically untrue. Look at a chart of their stock from 2020 forward. It has massive spikes up and down. Plenty of shorters made good money in those falls using put options.
- mrhottakes 4mo ago
  > They shut down production of S & X to make more capability for cars that they want to focus on and which sell way more, AND Cybercab. Which Tesla models sell more than the S and X?
  - omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
    Most/all of them. Even cybertruck sold more in 2025 (20k) versus S+X (30k combined), and that's after cybertruck sales were more or less cut in half.
throwaway2037 4mo ago
I feel that the value of their supercharger network is overlooked. No one outside of China is even close to their global footprint. It would probably be a great business to spin out of Tesla if they pivot away from building cars. When I watch YouTubers talk about the trouble of getting their EVs charged, many complain that competitors are much worse on a variety of metrics. Time and time again, they favour Tesla. And these are not Tesla fanatics -- many don't even own a Tesla.
- blonder 4mo ago
  That value is only growing as new supercharger builds are now compatible with almost all EVs in the US. Supercharge.info is a good 3rd party website for tracking superchargers, and is interesting to play around with filters to look at how the supercharger buildout has progressed.
- thelastgallon 4mo ago
  The charging networks will be largely irrelevant in the long run. People go to gas stations because there is no supply of petrol to homes/offices. Electricity is available at every building, where people live and work. Cars are parked for 22+ hours a day, and eventually you can charge anywhere you park. No need to going to a special place just to charge cars.

sroussey 4mo ago

It is in the shrinking stage with robot dreams.

omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago

It might be. It might not be. That's where the money is or isn't. I think the mature part of their business is 3/Y, energy storage, and maybe cybertruck, although I also think it's too early to call it because it depends on lower cost cell in house cell production and they only started that recently. In the near term, the growth part is Semi, cybercab, FSD, lithium cell production, and maybe cybertruck. In the long term, it's potentially Optimus, more general autonomy, and gigafactories.

sethops1 4mo ago
The growth part of Tesla is the increasingly large promises of snake oil Elon can spin.
- omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
  That's what many said when they were ramping the S/X, the 3/Y, and energy storage. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ That doesn't mean they can't make a mess of things all by themselves. But comparing their infra investments/growth strategy to snake oil when they've gone from nothing to $100 billion/year in 15+ years might be short sighted.
tsimionescu 4mo ago
Semi is DoA, FSD has been 1 year away for 10 years now give or take, cybercab is flailing, cybertruck same, and China is eating everyone's lunch on lithium cells.
- omgwtfbyobbq 4mo ago
  What you're saying about Semi and cybercab is what everyone said about S/X and 3/Y. https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ https://www.wired.com/2009/10/audi-etron/ They might might fail, but I wouldn't bet on it. Also cybercab isn't out yet, so any discussion is premature at best. Cybertruck has been disappointing, but I think a big part of that is cost. They started in house dry 4680 cell/pack production a couple months ago, so we'll see how that goes over the next few years. Even with China subsidizing cell production and being dominant in the world market, Tesla is still at 150gwh/year compared to 200gwh/year from BYD. The big question is how the dry cell 4680 packs will perform and how well they can scale production if performance is adequate. FSD is always a year away, but that's generally OK as long as it keeps improving and there isn't a comparable product in their cost bracket. If someone leapfrogs them, they're done. If not, they might be able to roll everything up all the way through Optimus.