6 ms·

Stronger how? The central command is gone.

by anukin 4mo ago

nemomarx 4mo ago
They seem to be heading towards control of the strait, and the tolls from that could be a pretty good pickup for whatever new government forms?
- gizajob 4mo ago
  Not sure how the gulf states on the other side of the strait are going to feel about that.
  - nerfbatplz 4mo ago
    Oman doesn't seem to care, Qatar capitulated quickly, the UAE is a walking corpse, Kuwait is as well until they kick the 5th fleet out, Iraq is already majority Shia, Saudi Arabia doesn't seem to care much.
  - no-name-here 4mo ago
    Apparently not enough for them to intervene (militarily?) even now while they have both the US and Israel actively on their side there?
swat535 4mo ago
I'm Iranian, now living in the west. Allow me to chime in.. So Iran doesn't have a central command, they've developed a mosaic system where the 30+ chains operate autonomously. It is also multi-layered (IRGC, Artesh, Basij, etc). The multi-layered design was developed after the revolution, when they realized that the regime should be protected in case of internal mutiny. IRGC specifically was put in place to protect the regime and it only responds to the Supreme Leader. Neither the president or the parliament control it. The mosaic system was started few years back after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani (though it possibly dates further, I can't confirm this). The biggest mistake US & Israel did was underestimating Iran, specifically their defensive capabilities. They've prepared for this war for 47 years, _literally_ praying for it. You had Abbas Araghchi on TV literally inviting American army into Iran for a ground invasion. What the West doesn't understand is that you can't really dismantle an ideology by dropping bombs on civilians. It didn't work in Afghanistan, it didn't work in IRAQ and it's not working with IRAN. The Shia martyrdom culture is misunderstood. I was not being hyperbolic when I said they have been praying for this war. Their motto is "Every day in Ashura, every land is Karbala". Anyway, I'll land it here for now. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashura https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashura - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karbala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karbala
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > They've prepared for this war for 47 years, _literally_ praying for it Is there an apocalyptic religious movement in Iran? Similar to American Evangelists hoping for Armageddon?
  - evanjrowley 4mo ago
    There is a potential for bias among Iranian converts to Christianity, but for those whose stories I've listened to, the common answer is yes, there is an apocalyptic religious movement in Iran.
  - jameshilliard 4mo ago
    > Is there an apocalyptic religious movement in Iran? It's more of a Jihad/Martyrdom ideology that's driving them. > Similar to American Evangelists hoping for Armageddon? That's a rather different issue, and luckily one that at least causes a lot less problems in practice. Sam Harris has some decent material on why this is(a lot of it comes down to important differences in doctrine).
  - fakedang 4mo ago
    The entire Shia sect is basically an apocalyptic religious movement. Has been since the start when Ali, the first Imam and fourth Caliph for the Sunnis, was assassinated, his sons following him, only for the assassination mastermind to usurp his Caliphate. Combine that with the millenarianism of the Safavids in the 15th and 16th centuries.
    - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
      > entire Shia sect is basically an apocalyptic religious movement This seems incredible? Like, apocalypitc evangelists have practically never built a proper civilisation. Shia Islam has golden-age Islam to its credit.
      - fakedang 4mo ago
        Not really. It is to be noted that Shiism for the most part was a very fringe sect for most of history. Even in Iran and Iraq, their traditional strongholds today, Shiism didn't have a strong enough presence until the reign of Shah Ismail Safavid, the first Safavid emperor who also hailed from a distinguished religious order called the Safawiyyah. In fact, the Safawiyyah were originally a Sunni military order based out of Azerbaijan, before converting to Shiism, and under his reign began a mass conversion campaign across his Iranian empire to force convert Sunnis to Shiism. When Shiism took root in Iran, they enjoyed favor with Persian culture, which has always been a strongly defensive culture which has had to fight against multiple threats throughout its history. Persian culture has always had this "us vs the others" mentality, in which Shiism fit perfectly as a fringe movement. Even then, most Shiites didn't take Shia practices or even Islamic practices seriously - many just continued their previous traditions as is. Even today, there are Shias who visit Zoroastrian fire temples and pray there, or depict imagery of Muhammad with fires around his head - something that would be blasphemous in Sunni Islam. Had Ismail Safavid's conversion campaign not have happened, Shiism would have been just another fringe sect like Ibadism, the predominant sect in Oman which comprises less than 0.5% of the global Islamic population (3 million members).
avidphantasm 4mo ago
They have proven to the world they have a deterrent akin to a nuclear weapon, but they can actually use it.
- etiam 4mo ago
  Not denying they're getting great leverage from that. I still don't quite understand why the shortcut is supposedly so irreplaceable.
  - Exoristos 4mo ago
    Perhaps because modern economies are allergic to long-term planning.
    - etiam 4mo ago
      Perhaps. And seemingly also a bit even to short-term reactive adaptation?
  - thisislife2 4mo ago
    It is not irreplaceable - you can avoid it as a shipping route and take a longer route. It's just more costly because it is a long route. Which means higher oil prices, which is universally unpopular everywhere with the citizens. (In oil-importing economies, oil prices have a rippling effect as any increase in oil prices increases the transportation cost of goods there by resulting in price increases of all such goods).
    - etiam 4mo ago
      That's pretty much what I've been thinking. Maybe I'm underestimating how much more expensive, but it seems for most of those ships if they'd got going on an alternative route instead of crowding around the peninsula they'd be arriving soon. For all I know the goods they're carrying may already have been sold at a rate assuming the cheap freight of course...
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago

Stronger how? The central command is gone.

by anukin 4mo ago

Stronger how? The central command is gone.

They seem to be heading towards control of the strait, and the tolls from that could be a pretty good pickup for whatever new government forms?

gizajob 4mo ago
Not sure how the gulf states on the other side of the strait are going to feel about that.
- nerfbatplz 4mo ago
  Oman doesn't seem to care, Qatar capitulated quickly, the UAE is a walking corpse, Kuwait is as well until they kick the 5th fleet out, Iraq is already majority Shia, Saudi Arabia doesn't seem to care much.
- no-name-here 4mo ago
  Apparently not enough for them to intervene (militarily?) even now while they have both the US and Israel actively on their side there?

swat535 4mo ago

I'm Iranian, now living in the west. Allow me to chime in.. So Iran doesn't have a central command, they've developed a mosaic system where the 30+ chains operate autonomously. It is also multi-layered (IRGC, Artesh, Basij, etc). The multi-layered design was developed after the revolution, when they realized that the regime should be protected in case of internal mutiny. IRGC specifically was put in place to protect the regime and it only responds to the Supreme Leader. Neither the president or the parliament control it. The mosaic system was started few years back after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani (though it possibly dates further, I can't confirm this). The biggest mistake US & Israel did was underestimating Iran, specifically their defensive capabilities. They've prepared for this war for 47 years, _literally_ praying for it. You had Abbas Araghchi on TV literally inviting American army into Iran for a ground invasion. What the West doesn't understand is that you can't really dismantle an ideology by dropping bombs on civilians. It didn't work in Afghanistan, it didn't work in IRAQ and it's not working with IRAN. The Shia martyrdom culture is misunderstood. I was not being hyperbolic when I said they have been praying for this war. Their motto is "Every day in Ashura, every land is Karbala". Anyway, I'll land it here for now. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashura https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashura - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karbala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karbala

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> They've prepared for this war for 47 years, _literally_ praying for it Is there an apocalyptic religious movement in Iran? Similar to American Evangelists hoping for Armageddon?
- evanjrowley 4mo ago
  There is a potential for bias among Iranian converts to Christianity, but for those whose stories I've listened to, the common answer is yes, there is an apocalyptic religious movement in Iran.
- jameshilliard 4mo ago
  > Is there an apocalyptic religious movement in Iran? It's more of a Jihad/Martyrdom ideology that's driving them. > Similar to American Evangelists hoping for Armageddon? That's a rather different issue, and luckily one that at least causes a lot less problems in practice. Sam Harris has some decent material on why this is(a lot of it comes down to important differences in doctrine).
- fakedang 4mo ago
  The entire Shia sect is basically an apocalyptic religious movement. Has been since the start when Ali, the first Imam and fourth Caliph for the Sunnis, was assassinated, his sons following him, only for the assassination mastermind to usurp his Caliphate. Combine that with the millenarianism of the Safavids in the 15th and 16th centuries.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    > entire Shia sect is basically an apocalyptic religious movement This seems incredible? Like, apocalypitc evangelists have practically never built a proper civilisation. Shia Islam has golden-age Islam to its credit.
    - fakedang 4mo ago
      Not really. It is to be noted that Shiism for the most part was a very fringe sect for most of history. Even in Iran and Iraq, their traditional strongholds today, Shiism didn't have a strong enough presence until the reign of Shah Ismail Safavid, the first Safavid emperor who also hailed from a distinguished religious order called the Safawiyyah. In fact, the Safawiyyah were originally a Sunni military order based out of Azerbaijan, before converting to Shiism, and under his reign began a mass conversion campaign across his Iranian empire to force convert Sunnis to Shiism. When Shiism took root in Iran, they enjoyed favor with Persian culture, which has always been a strongly defensive culture which has had to fight against multiple threats throughout its history. Persian culture has always had this "us vs the others" mentality, in which Shiism fit perfectly as a fringe movement. Even then, most Shiites didn't take Shia practices or even Islamic practices seriously - many just continued their previous traditions as is. Even today, there are Shias who visit Zoroastrian fire temples and pray there, or depict imagery of Muhammad with fires around his head - something that would be blasphemous in Sunni Islam. Had Ismail Safavid's conversion campaign not have happened, Shiism would have been just another fringe sect like Ibadism, the predominant sect in Oman which comprises less than 0.5% of the global Islamic population (3 million members).

avidphantasm 4mo ago

They have proven to the world they have a deterrent akin to a nuclear weapon, but they can actually use it.

etiam 4mo ago
Not denying they're getting great leverage from that. I still don't quite understand why the shortcut is supposedly so irreplaceable.
- Exoristos 4mo ago
  Perhaps because modern economies are allergic to long-term planning.
  - etiam 4mo ago
    Perhaps. And seemingly also a bit even to short-term reactive adaptation?
- thisislife2 4mo ago
  It is not irreplaceable - you can avoid it as a shipping route and take a longer route. It's just more costly because it is a long route. Which means higher oil prices, which is universally unpopular everywhere with the citizens. (In oil-importing economies, oil prices have a rippling effect as any increase in oil prices increases the transportation cost of goods there by resulting in price increases of all such goods).
  - etiam 4mo ago
    That's pretty much what I've been thinking. Maybe I'm underestimating how much more expensive, but it seems for most of those ships if they'd got going on an alternative route instead of crowding around the peninsula they'd be arriving soon. For all I know the goods they're carrying may already have been sold at a rate assuming the cheap freight of course...
JumpCrisscross 4mo ago