4 ms·

Right now the UK makes up the volatility of its heavy reliance on wind with LNG. So this isn't exactly a hedge against gas shortage.

by cm2187 5mo ago

toomuchtodo 5mo ago
Ember Energy: British power prices are increasingly independent from gas - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/british-power-prices-are-increasingly-independent-from-gas/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/british-power-price... - May 13th, 2026 * 15% of British power generation is already de-linked from the gas power price. This is from 10 GW of operational renewable capacity currently covered by the price-setting Contracts for Difference scheme. * A third (36%) of power generation in Britain will be priced independently of gas by 2030, according to forecasts of generation from the Contracts for Difference scheme. Up to 36 GW of competitively-priced new wind and solar is under development by 2032 through the scheme. * Hours where gas was below 20% of Britain’s electricity mix averaged £60/MWh in 2025, compared to £130/MWh in hours where gas made up more than 50% of the mix. * The gas share of power generation fell to a second record monthly low in a row in Britain in April 2026. The gas share in both March (27%) and April (19%) was the lowest per month in over a decade. In March, wind supplied a monthly record 42% of all power generation. (As more wind, solar, batteries, and transmission are deployed in the UK, fossil gas power share will continue to decline until pushed out of the generation mix)
- cm2187 5mo ago
  Looking at peak wind isn't particularly helpful I'm afraid. The problem is what happens when there is no wind, like in early May (https://gridwatch.co.uk/ https://gridwatch.co.uk/). Having more wind capacity isn't helping. Batteries are for smoothing minutes/hours not days. Solar obviously only a few hours a day and weak at this latitude.
  - deleted 5mo ago
    [deleted]
  - fpoling 5mo ago
    Modern solar work nicely in UK in May-August when wind is weakest due to long hours and cooler weather. However one needs more expensive panels that also work on a cloudy days. Then in UK somebody calculated that a house needs 1MWh battery to last over winter using only solar panels that a typical suburb house can install. In 5-10 years that would cost 40K USD making it rather realistic to have. This ignore availability of industrial-scale wind which is the strongest in winter.

Right now the UK makes up the volatility of its heavy reliance on wind with LNG. So this isn't exactly a hedge against gas shortage.

by cm2187 5mo ago

Right now the UK makes up the volatility of its heavy reliance on wind with LNG. So this isn't exactly a hedge against gas shortage.

toomuchtodo 5mo ago

Ember Energy: British power prices are increasingly independent from gas - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/british-power-prices-are-increasingly-independent-from-gas/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/british-power-price... - May 13th, 2026 * 15% of British power generation is already de-linked from the gas power price. This is from 10 GW of operational renewable capacity currently covered by the price-setting Contracts for Difference scheme. * A third (36%) of power generation in Britain will be priced independently of gas by 2030, according to forecasts of generation from the Contracts for Difference scheme. Up to 36 GW of competitively-priced new wind and solar is under development by 2032 through the scheme. * Hours where gas was below 20% of Britain’s electricity mix averaged £60/MWh in 2025, compared to £130/MWh in hours where gas made up more than 50% of the mix. * The gas share of power generation fell to a second record monthly low in a row in Britain in April 2026. The gas share in both March (27%) and April (19%) was the lowest per month in over a decade. In March, wind supplied a monthly record 42% of all power generation. (As more wind, solar, batteries, and transmission are deployed in the UK, fossil gas power share will continue to decline until pushed out of the generation mix)

cm2187 5mo ago
Looking at peak wind isn't particularly helpful I'm afraid. The problem is what happens when there is no wind, like in early May (https://gridwatch.co.uk/ https://gridwatch.co.uk/). Having more wind capacity isn't helping. Batteries are for smoothing minutes/hours not days. Solar obviously only a few hours a day and weak at this latitude.
- deleted 5mo ago
  [deleted]
- fpoling 5mo ago
  Modern solar work nicely in UK in May-August when wind is weakest due to long hours and cooler weather. However one needs more expensive panels that also work on a cloudy days. Then in UK somebody calculated that a house needs 1MWh battery to last over winter using only solar panels that a typical suburb house can install. In 5-10 years that would cost 40K USD making it rather realistic to have. This ignore availability of industrial-scale wind which is the strongest in winter.