3 ms·
The lows are also predictable in my estimation.
by OutOfHere 5mo ago
The lows are also predictable in my estimation.
- scotty79 5mo agoHow low will it go in this cycle by your estimates? In my estimate not much lower than that. Baring any catastrophic event, like a pandemic.
- OutOfHere 5mo ago> not much lower than that. Not much lower than what? > How low will it go in this cycle In the ballpark of 50K USD.
- scotty79 5mo ago> Not much lower than what? Than the current price of fifty-ish k. Although even if you buy and sell perfectly. This cycle gain shouldn't be larger than about 100% between now and +2.5 years from now. And that's in dollars, that are gonna probably lose another another 15% of their value in that time. Bitcoin became a pretty boring asset.
- OutOfHere 5mo ago> Than the current price of fifty-ish k. Huh. The price as of today is 63K USD. Please always state your currency unit, and it's best to stick to USD for international communication purposes. Are you new to this? I guess it's okay for different people to have different beliefs about how low it'll go, otherwise it wouldn't get traded. I base mine in experience over the last few cycles.
- scotty79 5mo agoAh, yes, sorry. My bad. I was looking at the price in EUR since USD went downhill and stopped being a roughly stable measure of value. My estimates are basically eyeballing the chart of deviation from logarithmic curve fit (on log-linear scale) of all btc price data (adjusted for USD inflation) going back to 2009. It's more of a family of charts since picking t=0 date is fairly arbitrary.
- wmf 5mo agoBased on previous patterns, the low should be over $75K. It's already broken.
- OutOfHere 5mo agoI disagree with any rationale for a $75K estimate. My estimate is about $50K. $75K is just so wrong that it has been breached repeatedly in recent times, completely invalidating any theory behind it. If your estimation approach doesn't work for the last two cycles, it won't work for this one.