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It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistribu
by henry2023 4mo ago
It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX.
So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.
- CactusBlue 4mo agoHow do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?
- TurdF3rguson 4mo agoMore like: why would you think it's not already priced in. Answer: I'm super special!
- henry2023 4mo agoI'm not special, this is a pretty basic idea so there's no edge here but that doesn't mean there's no trade. Also, you'd be surprised at how simple the most profitable Quant strategies are.
- henry2023 4mo agoEven if it's expected most can't do the trade because we're Pre-IPO. Also, realized move always carries more value than expected because of uncertainty.
- satvikpendem 4mo agoMusk's plan is to merge Tesla and SpaceX into one company.
- amai 4mo agoNew name: Stark Industries?
- henry2023 4mo agoNo, something more original more relatable: X Technologies. /s
- satvikpendem 4mo agoIt will unironically be named X, because Musk has an obsession with the letter since the PayPal days.
- jjav 4mo ago> So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck. Risky, IMO. I've been closing my TSLA shorts because I think he'll just use spacex stock to buy tsla at a very overvalued price, just to wipe out all the shorts.
- henry2023 4mo agoFair, but Tesla is valued at 1.6T while SpaceX is going to start at 1.75T. If SpaceX ever has the ability to buy Tesla in an all Stock deal at a high Tesla price then SpaceX would need to expand faster than Tesla which is precisely my trade.