4 ms·

Can you think of any economically valuable reason why it might be important to know about weather trends or events in advance? Any at all?

mothballed 4mo ago
[flagged]
- jakelazaroff 4mo ago
  Let's say you're an evil capitalist bastard. How would you capture that value?
  - mothballed 4mo ago
    Surely you're not proposing it is uncapturable economic value. That's not economics. As for the mechanics, first we have to hear what they were thinking about the substance of that value was. That's not my assertion, but rather the question posed by the persons I was replying too -- but virtually by definition economics involves the topic of capturable valuable. If it is not capturable value then I don't see how it's economic value. But lets say, for the hell of it, we take a wild guess and presume that to be economically valuable it has to be if not easily tradeable at least actionable, but for whatever reason the hypothetical here is it's only useful in the US if the government does it. I would presume, though not propose, they could sell it to US enemies, such as China. Now I am not promoting treasonous activities, but I'm quite sure, some capitalists would happily do them.
    - mindslight 4mo ago
      Un-centrally-captureable value that remains distributed is very much economic value. You seem to be falling for the efficient market fallacy.
      - mothballed 4mo ago
        If it's actually usable economically then the government will partially recover (capture value) it via taxation. If US suppliers fail to match the predicted effects, then Chinese or other suppliers can. This yields tax receipts in China and elsewhere. So if it's actually 'distributable' then it is worth at least some non-zero capturable amount as sales to foreign governments if the US government will not be participating, even if you suppose no private entities will buy the information.
        mindslight 4mo ago
        It seems you're still assuming market efficiency, but just focusing on governments as the actors.
        mothballed 4mo ago
        It seems you've completely lost the plot. Refer to what we're replying to >Can you think of any economically valuable reason why it might be important to know about weather trends or events in advance? Any at all? You're damning me for questioning someone who presumed market efficiency with an appeal to economic value to a government that stands to capture that hypothetical value? The premise of the government acting on market efficiency was what I responded to, not my introduction. If we're discounting the premised market efficiency of the government actor to which I replied, then the question was moot, and you're targeting the wrong commenter. But of course, that wouldn't fit your two-faced (and post response underhanded conniving editing 'centrally-') rebuttal, so you wait to set the catch-22 trap of damning rebuttal comments for acting on a premise introduced in a counter viewpoint.
        mindslight 4mo ago
        I don't see how I've "lost the plot." The comment you originally responded to does not presume market efficiency. In fact it carries the opposite assumption - if markets were efficient then the loss of economic value from weather forecasting would be immediately apparent and we wouldn't need to discuss larger-concept models with the goal of overcoming inefficiencies. That original comment posits an idea of "economic value" that is independent from what can be captured by whomever is contributing to it, which is what you seemed to be rejecting.
- DangitBobby 4mo ago
  You'd think that but the evil capitalist bastards generally think one financial quarter at a time and will absolutely dismantle the long-term prospects of just about anything if it gets them some shiny nickels.
- awepofiwaop 4mo ago
  This comment seems to presuppose that the "evil capitalists" are infallible. People can be bad at their jobs and/or can act irrationally.
- x-complexity 4mo ago
  ...Unironically in complete agreement. If the data is economically valuable, mbgerring, then the private market and aligned states/charities should be the ones shouldering the costs.
  - deleted 4mo ago
    [deleted]
- andrewflnr 4mo ago
  Are you not aware of any instances where "evil capitalist bastards" fail to act in their own long term interest? If not, then you might want to pay more attention.
- mbgerring 4mo ago
  It’s so economically valuable that smarter people than you decided it should be provided as a public good, to give everyone access to it regardless of ability to pay. We should do a lot more of this.

mothballed 4mo ago

[flagged]

jakelazaroff 4mo ago
Let's say you're an evil capitalist bastard. How would you capture that value?
- mothballed 4mo ago
  Surely you're not proposing it is uncapturable economic value. That's not economics. As for the mechanics, first we have to hear what they were thinking about the substance of that value was. That's not my assertion, but rather the question posed by the persons I was replying too -- but virtually by definition economics involves the topic of capturable valuable. If it is not capturable value then I don't see how it's economic value. But lets say, for the hell of it, we take a wild guess and presume that to be economically valuable it has to be if not easily tradeable at least actionable, but for whatever reason the hypothetical here is it's only useful in the US if the government does it. I would presume, though not propose, they could sell it to US enemies, such as China. Now I am not promoting treasonous activities, but I'm quite sure, some capitalists would happily do them.
  - mindslight 4mo ago
    Un-centrally-captureable value that remains distributed is very much economic value. You seem to be falling for the efficient market fallacy.
    - mothballed 4mo ago
      If it's actually usable economically then the government will partially recover (capture value) it via taxation. If US suppliers fail to match the predicted effects, then Chinese or other suppliers can. This yields tax receipts in China and elsewhere. So if it's actually 'distributable' then it is worth at least some non-zero capturable amount as sales to foreign governments if the US government will not be participating, even if you suppose no private entities will buy the information.
      - mindslight 4mo ago
        It seems you're still assuming market efficiency, but just focusing on governments as the actors.
        mothballed 4mo ago
        It seems you've completely lost the plot. Refer to what we're replying to >Can you think of any economically valuable reason why it might be important to know about weather trends or events in advance? Any at all? You're damning me for questioning someone who presumed market efficiency with an appeal to economic value to a government that stands to capture that hypothetical value? The premise of the government acting on market efficiency was what I responded to, not my introduction. If we're discounting the premised market efficiency of the government actor to which I replied, then the question was moot, and you're targeting the wrong commenter. But of course, that wouldn't fit your two-faced (and post response underhanded conniving editing 'centrally-') rebuttal, so you wait to set the catch-22 trap of damning rebuttal comments for acting on a premise introduced in a counter viewpoint.
        mindslight 4mo ago
        I don't see how I've "lost the plot." The comment you originally responded to does not presume market efficiency. In fact it carries the opposite assumption - if markets were efficient then the loss of economic value from weather forecasting would be immediately apparent and we wouldn't need to discuss larger-concept models with the goal of overcoming inefficiencies. That original comment posits an idea of "economic value" that is independent from what can be captured by whomever is contributing to it, which is what you seemed to be rejecting.
DangitBobby 4mo ago
You'd think that but the evil capitalist bastards generally think one financial quarter at a time and will absolutely dismantle the long-term prospects of just about anything if it gets them some shiny nickels.
awepofiwaop 4mo ago
This comment seems to presuppose that the "evil capitalists" are infallible. People can be bad at their jobs and/or can act irrationally.
x-complexity 4mo ago
...Unironically in complete agreement. If the data is economically valuable, mbgerring, then the private market and aligned states/charities should be the ones shouldering the costs.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
andrewflnr 4mo ago
Are you not aware of any instances where "evil capitalist bastards" fail to act in their own long term interest? If not, then you might want to pay more attention.
mbgerring 4mo ago
It’s so economically valuable that smarter people than you decided it should be provided as a public good, to give everyone access to it regardless of ability to pay. We should do a lot more of this.