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It's possible that oil traders are still trading on the assumption that the war will be over Soon™, in which case the expectation is that we won't hit the botto
by achierius 4mo ago
It's possible that oil traders are still trading on the assumption that the war will be over Soon™, in which case the expectation is that we won't hit the bottom of our stockpiles and thus there'd be no reason to price in that eventuality. I don't know if I agree with that, and I would certainly be surprised if traders generally thought as much -- but who knows!
- credit_guy 4mo agoNo. If you read 2-3 articles about the war in Iran per day, be sure they read 20 or 30, and they probably use LLMs to summarize 3000. For us, it's only the feel-good of being smart. For them it's money.
- achierius 4mo agoSo? Maybe that extra information points them to believe that the war will be over soon, even if I don't agree. Isn't that what I said?