4 ms·

There’s simply no version of financial reality that values this company at over 1T. Even 780B is extremely generous based on the current financial picture and a

by cmiles8 5mo ago

There’s simply no version of financial reality that values this company at over 1T. Even 780B is extremely generous based on the current financial picture and a very optimistic view of the future. The AI IPOs are broadly in the same ballpark, and if they IPO at less than the last private valuation (a real possibility absent a perfect setup) that triggers a whole bunch of other messes. The window to get all these things closed before it all comes crashing down is closing, hence the sudden rush to IPO.

Eji1700 5mo ago
> The AI IPOs To be clear, the Space X prospectus seems to claim it IS an AI IPO.
- cmiles8 5mo ago
  Indeed and it’s almost sad. The core of SpaceX is an amazing engineering company with real assets and a serious moat. Thats realistically maybe worth 250-400B-ish as a serious hardcore company. Then there’s all this other hype and nonsense tacked on to make a franken-company that’s just making a circus of the core story.
  - remus 5mo ago
    > Indeed and it’s almost sad. The core of SpaceX is an amazing engineering company with real assets and a serious moat. Completely. As if "We dominate the space launch and satellite internet markets" isn't enough, they're trying to tack on all this hypothetical stuff to inflate the valuation. Maybe some of it will come true in 50-100 years, but I'd bet a lot of it won't (c.f. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...) because telling the future is hard. It'll be a real shame if the core, cool engineering that's happening at spaceX gets compromised by all the shenanigans going on elsewhere.
kklisura 5mo ago
> There’s simply no version of financial reality that values this company at over 1T. Aswath Damodaran recently (pre S-1) valued SpaceX at $1.2T [1] - yeah I was shocked as well. Unfortunately, I haven't had time to dig into his numbers. But yeah, there's your _financial reality_. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhY5EF1_LjQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhY5EF1_LjQ
- weakfish 5mo ago
  Who is this guy and why should I listen to him?
  - kklisura 5mo ago
    If you're into finance or you're entering into it you should definitely know him. Google him. Watch his lectures. You can learn a lot from him even if you disagree.

by cmiles8 5mo ago

Eji1700 5mo ago

> The AI IPOs To be clear, the Space X prospectus seems to claim it IS an AI IPO.

cmiles8 5mo ago
Indeed and it’s almost sad. The core of SpaceX is an amazing engineering company with real assets and a serious moat. Thats realistically maybe worth 250-400B-ish as a serious hardcore company. Then there’s all this other hype and nonsense tacked on to make a franken-company that’s just making a circus of the core story.
- remus 5mo ago
  > Indeed and it’s almost sad. The core of SpaceX is an amazing engineering company with real assets and a serious moat. Completely. As if "We dominate the space launch and satellite internet markets" isn't enough, they're trying to tack on all this hypothetical stuff to inflate the valuation. Maybe some of it will come true in 50-100 years, but I'd bet a lot of it won't (c.f. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...) because telling the future is hard. It'll be a real shame if the core, cool engineering that's happening at spaceX gets compromised by all the shenanigans going on elsewhere.

kklisura 5mo ago

> There’s simply no version of financial reality that values this company at over 1T. Aswath Damodaran recently (pre S-1) valued SpaceX at $1.2T [1] - yeah I was shocked as well. Unfortunately, I haven't had time to dig into his numbers. But yeah, there's your _financial reality_. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhY5EF1_LjQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhY5EF1_LjQ

weakfish 5mo ago
Who is this guy and why should I listen to him?
- kklisura 5mo ago
  If you're into finance or you're entering into it you should definitely know him. Google him. Watch his lectures. You can learn a lot from him even if you disagree.