3 ms·

Based on what?

• dj_axl 5mo ago
  Revenue. (Or forecast revenue, take your pick.)
  • NooneAtAll3 5mo ago
    revenue has been "rockets - good. starlink - great. ai - big loss"
    • mrDmrTmrJ 5mo ago
      Why is "ai-big loss"? My understanding is that the S-1 showed a Q1 loss of xAI of $2.47 billion in Q1. But with the Anthropic Colossus-I rental agreement at $1.25B/month or $3.75B/quarter, xAI should now be net-neutral to cash-flow positive. If Colossus-II rents networked GB-200s, that could be up to +$47B/year at $9/hour/GB-200 for 555,000 GB-200s. For reference, current rental rates are $10-$27/hour for the same hardware. With Anthropic at a 55% month-over-month growth rate (implying a $150B/year run rate by August, or, more likely, sometime in late 2026), it seems very possible that xAI could be highly profitable as the only available compute resource. I'm not saying +$47B Colossus-II deal will happen, but even a small fraction of that remains highly material to xAI economics. xAI is likely already cashflow neutral. (Where am I wrong?)
      • novaleaf 5mo ago
        the xAi revenue comes from renting their infrastructure to their biggest competitor. Anthropic is going to IPO for aprox 1/2 the valuation, is profitable, and can cancel the contract with 90 days notice.
        • mrDmrTmrJ 5mo ago
          Oh, I would far prefer to own Anthropic's stock than SpaceX's.
• Forgeties79 5mo ago
  Just make your point. You think it’s appropriately valued or undervalued, right?
  • megaloblasto 5mo ago
    Personally I think the valuation is detached from the company itself. In theory Tesla's valuation is too high, but it doesn't seem to be coming down any time soon. Plus there seems to be ways to manipulate stock prices when you control such a highly valued company, to the extent that the stock price reflects actions taken in the stock market more than the underlying assets and balance sheets.
    • jfyi 5mo ago
      [dead]