4 ms·

> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. > Burry is well aware of

> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. > Burry is well aware of this ... Well, no he isn't well aware of this, apparently. He's been right in 2008 but he has been spectacularly wrong for the last 5 to 10 years, like shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...

mgh2 4mo ago
Sure, no one can predict the future. But even then, Tesla's fundamentals are shaky and it is held by Musk's ability to sell his story and brand, only some fundamentals hold- albeit the same 'fans' buying its cars might be invested in its stock. Same thing might be happening with Nvidia- hyperscalers heavily investing in infrastructure and pushing AI adoption to justify ROI.
heisgone 4mo ago
He was wrong about the timing of the bubble popping and might well still be too early, as passive investing might allow for the market to keep inflating for many years to come. Mike Green explaining it better, about how mathematically, there is an inflexion point where if x% of investment is passive, it could make the whole system unstable (I don't remember the specific number) and crash, but until then, it will keep rising.
- panarky 4mo ago
  "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."
Haven880 4mo ago
He didn't realized that speculating stocks allowed by Fed and both parties. The vast majority money needed to prop up American economy right now (or in the last 10 years) have nothing to do with econ 101. It is purely money printing at its finest making Japanese banana money and Germans look amateurish. Fed now basically print money to bank and directed bank to buy stocks and loans as they like to certain orgs and individuals. Any short selling or whistleblowers suicided.
- IAmBroom 4mo ago
  Outlandish claims require substantial citations.
ffsm8 4mo ago
> shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund... He just didn't take to heart that the market can stay irrational for longer then he could stay solvent. Both Tesla and Nvidia valuations are irrational from a market perspective. Doesn't mean they'll crash within the next months or even years, but it wouldn't be surprising if they did
- jjav 4mo ago
  > Both Tesla and Nvidia valuations are irrational from a market perspective. Different levels though. NVDA P/E is 31 which is slightly high but not crazy. The AI datacenter investments might dry up and then earnings drop, but who knows. So it's defensible, at least. TSLA is in another universe though, P/E of ~360! I am convinced spacex will acquire TSLA just to avoid seeing it crash.

mgh2 4mo ago

Sure, no one can predict the future. But even then, Tesla's fundamentals are shaky and it is held by Musk's ability to sell his story and brand, only some fundamentals hold- albeit the same 'fans' buying its cars might be invested in its stock. Same thing might be happening with Nvidia- hyperscalers heavily investing in infrastructure and pushing AI adoption to justify ROI.

heisgone 4mo ago

He was wrong about the timing of the bubble popping and might well still be too early, as passive investing might allow for the market to keep inflating for many years to come. Mike Green explaining it better, about how mathematically, there is an inflexion point where if x% of investment is passive, it could make the whole system unstable (I don't remember the specific number) and crash, but until then, it will keep rising.

panarky 4mo ago
"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

Haven880 4mo ago

He didn't realized that speculating stocks allowed by Fed and both parties. The vast majority money needed to prop up American economy right now (or in the last 10 years) have nothing to do with econ 101. It is purely money printing at its finest making Japanese banana money and Germans look amateurish. Fed now basically print money to bank and directed bank to buy stocks and loans as they like to certain orgs and individuals. Any short selling or whistleblowers suicided.

IAmBroom 4mo ago
Outlandish claims require substantial citations.

ffsm8 4mo ago

> shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund... He just didn't take to heart that the market can stay irrational for longer then he could stay solvent. Both Tesla and Nvidia valuations are irrational from a market perspective. Doesn't mean they'll crash within the next months or even years, but it wouldn't be surprising if they did

jjav 4mo ago
> Both Tesla and Nvidia valuations are irrational from a market perspective. Different levels though. NVDA P/E is 31 which is slightly high but not crazy. The AI datacenter investments might dry up and then earnings drop, but who knows. So it's defensible, at least. TSLA is in another universe though, P/E of ~360! I am convinced spacex will acquire TSLA just to avoid seeing it crash.