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>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kin
by gruez 5mo ago
>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.
90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?
- donbox 5mo agoIf it does not matter, then don't change it.
- randbyte 5mo ago> it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. Not really: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/spacex-allow-early-share-resale-before-usual-sixmonth-lock-up-2026-05-22/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/spacex-allow-early-...
- HWR_14 5mo agoSpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares
- rlt 5mo agoSteadily starting about 60 days (Q2 earnings) after the IPO.
- throwaway2037 5mo ago> The only major cliff will be Elons shares Do you really think he would see a large portion of his shares on his unlock date? If so, why? What would he do with the capital?
- andruby 5mo agoOff-load some of them when the valuation is _to the moon_ from AI and then later he'll force shareholders and the board to gift him even more shares then he sold.
- HWR_14 5mo agoI don't think he'll sell a large portion of his shares. My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares. Because everyone else will be able to sell some of their shares in regular intervals.
- throwaway2037 5mo ago> My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares. Fair point and well-stated. Another thing that is special about Musk's "vesting cliff": He has the longest in modern history: one full year. I cannot think of any other IPO in the last 10 years where the founder had such a strict/long vesting cliff. While I think the "super shares" (with 10x voting rights) are bullshit, I do think the very long vesting cliff is a good sign.
- lostlogin 5mo ago> The only major cliff will be Elons shares You can’t imagine a scenario where he goes lunatic and does something wild (again)?
- cortesoft 5mo agoThe indexes are weighted based on the float (at least most of them)... so a small float means they will buy a much smaller number of shares.
- rlt 5mo agoI think that's the point the parent comment was making.
- thephyber 5mo agoNo, the parent was saying the other rule change is arbitrary. The tiny float and just a few days before the index funds buy means they have to buy without any more revenue / earnings info than was already published pre-IPO. 90 days is a quarter, so there WILL be more price discovery before a 0 day index fund seasoning period.
- Ballas 5mo agoWell, they changed that rule as well. If the float is less than a set percentage, then it is weighted as a much higher percentage. Something like the minimum for weighting is 12% where SpaceX's float will be below 5% (those are the numbers I recall, but I don't have a lot of confidence in them.) That means they will be weighted as if the float was 12%.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago> they changed that rule as well S&P hasn’t changed any rules yet.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- thg 5mo agoNASDAQ has, however. SpaceX will be weighted at triple its public float.
- thephyber 5mo agoHow about 1 more quarter of earning reports and estimates?
- Forgeties79 5mo agoThere is a world of difference between 5 and 90 days, even if you aggressively stick to the “time in the market over timing the market” strategy. If it wasn’t of consequence, then they wouldn’t be attempting to change the rules. And if SpaceX is such a great long-term investment, then they shouldn’t need the advantages this provide. Join the index funds like any other company. Let the market sort itself out.