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I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintai

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?
- Eufrat 4mo ago
  The same evidence that they are growing. Tea leaves.
- bunderbunder 4mo ago
  They’ve claimed a big revenue run rate for this quarter. But it’s non-GAAP, so you kind of have to assume shenanigans. Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. I consider the number they came up with when they had to worry about committing perjury to be more trustworthy (because I’m a pill), so that would also indicate shenanigans. My guess is they are inflating that revenue run rate figure by booking token pre-payments from enterprise contracts now instead of spreading it over time as GAAP would mandate. And at the same time their big enterprise clients are talking about scaling back their usage. So we’ve got a combination of signs that they’ve been inflating their revenue growth, and signs that their customers are losing their appetite for contributing to that revenue growth. I suppose it’s not a slam dunk, but it feels to me like as strong an indicator as one could hope for a private blitzscaler startup like this.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    Oh, to be clear, I'm not saying there is evidence they're all a-okay. I just hadn't seen any evidence that they were stalling out. (I have for OpenAI.)
  - aurareturn 4mo ago
    Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. Got a source?
    - dbu21 4mo ago
      "Although the company has generated substantial revenue since entering the commercial market—exceeding $5 billion to date—it has nonetheless had to raise more than $60 billion in outside capital to fund its operations". https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.465515/gov.uscourts.cand.465515.6.5.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.46...
      - aurareturn 4mo ago
        That doesn't prove this qouote: Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public.
- MagicMoonlight 4mo ago
  No new models. Same janky slop but with a bunch of RL and benchmark cheating. A pretend future model which is just the current model but with a longer COT and gated away.
MagicMoonlight 4mo ago
If you thought your company was going to develop AGI you wouldn’t sell a single share. You’d be a fool. It’s like selling your straight flush.

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago

> when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?

Eufrat 4mo ago
The same evidence that they are growing. Tea leaves.
bunderbunder 4mo ago
They’ve claimed a big revenue run rate for this quarter. But it’s non-GAAP, so you kind of have to assume shenanigans. Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. I consider the number they came up with when they had to worry about committing perjury to be more trustworthy (because I’m a pill), so that would also indicate shenanigans. My guess is they are inflating that revenue run rate figure by booking token pre-payments from enterprise contracts now instead of spreading it over time as GAAP would mandate. And at the same time their big enterprise clients are talking about scaling back their usage. So we’ve got a combination of signs that they’ve been inflating their revenue growth, and signs that their customers are losing their appetite for contributing to that revenue growth. I suppose it’s not a slam dunk, but it feels to me like as strong an indicator as one could hope for a private blitzscaler startup like this.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  Oh, to be clear, I'm not saying there is evidence they're all a-okay. I just hadn't seen any evidence that they were stalling out. (I have for OpenAI.)
- aurareturn 4mo ago
  Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public. Got a source?
  - dbu21 4mo ago
    "Although the company has generated substantial revenue since entering the commercial market—exceeding $5 billion to date—it has nonetheless had to raise more than $60 billion in outside capital to fund its operations". https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.465515/gov.uscourts.cand.465515.6.5.pdf https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.46...
    - aurareturn 4mo ago
      That doesn't prove this qouote: Earlier this year they were telling a court their revenue was like 1/4 of what they had told the public.
MagicMoonlight 4mo ago
No new models. Same janky slop but with a bunch of RL and benchmark cheating. A pretend future model which is just the current model but with a longer COT and gated away.

MagicMoonlight 4mo ago

If you thought your company was going to develop AGI you wouldn’t sell a single share. You’d be a fool. It’s like selling your straight flush.