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Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't.

JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't History is also replete with people constantly predicting collapses that don't come. Timing the market is very hard with numbers, it's total nonsense if one is just going off vibes.
- za_creature 5mo ago
  Most bank runs tend to be driven by vibes, not numbers though. The good news is that these folks seem to be in possession of a vibe-rator.
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > bank runs Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI are not banks. (Also, we had the largest bank runs in American history three years ago. The ordinary American barely noticed.)
    - za_creature 5mo ago
      They're not profitable either, so the money has to come from somewhere, no?
      - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > the money has to come from somewhere, no? Yes. Equity investors. The ones who buy hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars of American stocks a quarter.
        za_creature 5mo ago
        And these equity-investors, do they use their own money to buy the (presumably non-voting) stocks? Cause if that's the case, I see no reason for a government bailout should things go south. Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment. But if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run.
        dboreham 5mo ago
        If much of the money comes from passive funds, presumably the other stocks in those funds will need to be sold?
        JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > these equity-investors, do they use their own money to buy the (presumably non-voting) stocks? Yes [1]. > Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment ...pensions also invest in the stock market. > if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run You're confusing deeply unrelated concepts. Whether or not someone who loses money is politically sympathetic has nothing to do with whether they're at risk of a bank run. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f224.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22...
        za_creature 5mo ago
        I made no mention of anyone being politically sympathetic or otherwise. A private investor is _private_ and thus not subject to a government bailout. The argument for government bailouts used to be that "grandpa would lose his pension", I merely stated the terms that would make this non-applicable. If pensions invest in the stock market, then they are de-facto acting as a bank. And last I checked, in the land of the free, you get to withdraw your 401k should you vibe with the decision to do so [please don't do this based on this post alone].
        JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
aurareturn 5mo ago
Nasdaq is 5.4x higher now than peak dotcom. So just buy the dip if it actually crashes.
Karrot_Kream 5mo ago
This is one of those arguments that is so vacuous you can apply it to anything and always be right. > "There's no way you'll hurt yourself walking to the living room" > "Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't."
olalonde 5mo ago
And people are right most of the time. For every actual bubble, there are easily a dozen "bubbles" that aren't in fact bubbles.

> people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't History is also replete with people constantly predicting collapses that don't come. Timing the market is very hard with numbers, it's total nonsense if one is just going off vibes.

za_creature 5mo ago
Most bank runs tend to be driven by vibes, not numbers though. The good news is that these folks seem to be in possession of a vibe-rator.
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > bank runs Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI are not banks. (Also, we had the largest bank runs in American history three years ago. The ordinary American barely noticed.)
  - za_creature 5mo ago
    They're not profitable either, so the money has to come from somewhere, no?
    - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
      > the money has to come from somewhere, no? Yes. Equity investors. The ones who buy hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars of American stocks a quarter.
      - za_creature 5mo ago
        And these equity-investors, do they use their own money to buy the (presumably non-voting) stocks? Cause if that's the case, I see no reason for a government bailout should things go south. Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment. But if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run.
        dboreham 5mo ago
        If much of the money comes from passive funds, presumably the other stocks in those funds will need to be sold?
        JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
        > these equity-investors, do they use their own money to buy the (presumably non-voting) stocks? Yes [1]. > Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment ...pensions also invest in the stock market. > if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run You're confusing deeply unrelated concepts. Whether or not someone who loses money is politically sympathetic has nothing to do with whether they're at risk of a bank run. [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f224.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22...
        za_creature 5mo ago
        I made no mention of anyone being politically sympathetic or otherwise. A private investor is _private_ and thus not subject to a government bailout. The argument for government bailouts used to be that "grandpa would lose his pension", I merely stated the terms that would make this non-applicable. If pensions invest in the stock market, then they are de-facto acting as a bank. And last I checked, in the land of the free, you get to withdraw your 401k should you vibe with the decision to do so [please don't do this based on this post alone].
        JumpCrisscross 5mo ago

aurareturn 5mo ago

Nasdaq is 5.4x higher now than peak dotcom. So just buy the dip if it actually crashes.

Karrot_Kream 5mo ago

This is one of those arguments that is so vacuous you can apply it to anything and always be right. > "There's no way you'll hurt yourself walking to the living room" > "Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't."

olalonde 5mo ago

And people are right most of the time. For every actual bubble, there are easily a dozen "bubbles" that aren't in fact bubbles.